Time To Go For Value Over Momentum, Market To Remain Rangebound
Jul 12, 2019 | 16:32 PM IST
Jul 12, 2019 | 16:32 PM IST
Our Analysis
Indian share market since the budget announcement has been in the trap of the bears, albeit the budget was more convincing for long term vision rather than a short term action. We believe the government had planted the seeds for future success in Union Budget yet its failed to excite the market instantly. At the beginning of the week, the d-street witnessed one of the biggest falls in the decade. Further, the gap between the 11591-11426 was been indecisive for the market participant throughout the week, as any electric move in any direction will decide the faith of trend for the coming days.
Despite, Bank recapitalization and addressing the NBFC issue had been positive, Mostly, these weeks the steering wheel was in the hand of the Bears as the quarrel of the high-rich tax for the people earning more than 3 or 5 Cr, additionally the tax on buyback & the proposal to raise the minimum public shareholding limit to 35 percent cursed the market sentiment. Besides this, companys with a healthy market cap and liquidity witnessed a wild swing in the stock price. Bajaj finance & Finserv haunted by the slowdown concern witnessed one of the sharpest fall in 5 months, Addition to the list is Titan ahead, indicating the muted growth and Indigo with the corporate issue also witnessed a plunging in the share price.
In the coming days the Q1 earning would pick up its pace with the lack of the trigger the market is likely to be driven by the earning and clues taken from the globe. At present market are trading near its support levels so any violation of this level can emerge one more wave of selling in the market.
Earnings Update
TCS posted its Q1 result with INR revenue rose by 0.4% QoQ and 11.4% YoY to Rs38,172cr, Constant currency (cc) revenue grew by 10.6% YoY and dollar revenue came in at USD5,485mn (+1.6% QoQ and +8.6% YoY). EBIT stood at Rs 9,220cr, down 3.3% QoQ but up 7.5% YoY. EBIT margin contracted by 94bps QoQ and 88bps YoY to 24.2%, pressure on EBIT margin impacted by INR appreciation and onsite workforce crunch. PAT grew by 0.1% QoQ and 10.8% YoY to Rs8,131cr.
Revenue/Growth drivers for TCS
- Digital reached 32.2% of revenue and grew 42.1% YoY in CC terms.
- BFSI (30.8% of rev) growth was soft at 1.3% QoQ, some challenges in NorthAm Capital markets and European Banks.
- Retail grew 1% QoQ, mgmt positive on Retail in medium-term despite quarterly volatility (earlier impacted by retail bankruptcies).
- Manufacturing posted 3.7% QoQ backed by strong demand from the US, offset by weak Auto sector in Europe.
- Strong growth in Life sciences & Healthcare for the fourth consecutive quarter.
- Europe has been strong growth contributor for TCS in FY19 (+17.3% YoY) but YoY growth rate in the UK and continental Europe is now normalizing , However, Large account performance was muted sequentially with no addition in >$ 100mn client bucket and 1 addition in >$ 50mn client bucket
Earnings Releases In Upcoming Week
| Result Date | Company Name |
|---|---|
| 16/07/2019 | Federal Bank, DCB bank |
| 17/07/2019 | Wipro, Yes Bank, Mindtree, Tataelxsi |
| 18/07/2019 | Cyient, L&T Infotech, Colgate, ACC. |
| 19/07/2019 | Dabur, Bandhan, Reliance Ind, HDFC Bank, Mahindra CIE |
This Weeks Market Highlights:
Benchmark Indices:
1) On Monday, The Indian share market registered one of the worst trading session in a decade. On Friday, After presenting the budget, the market started to slips and the bears took control of the d-street. The tax on buyback, which is likely to hit badly as the companies will now avoid buybacks. Additionally, the proposal to raise the minimum public shareholding limit to 35 percent has been the concerning subject among the market participants. the Sensex fall by 792.82 points or 2.01 percent to 38,720.57 and the Nifty plunged 247.20 points or 2.09 percent to 11,564.
2) It was a muted ending for Indian share market in Tuesday's trade. The market breadth closed in favor of buyers. About 871 stocks advanced and 860 shares declined on NSE. There was an immense volatile action in a specific counter, which includes Titan, declined nearly 12.25 percent in a day, while, Sun pharma was among the top performer on NSE. The significant role was played by the Reliance Industries posting the gains of 2.47 percent, was the major contributor, for holding the indices higher. In closing, The Sensex rose 10.25 points to 38,730.82 while the Nifty50 fell 2.70 points to 11,555.90. 0.
3) On Wednesday, Indian equity benchmarks ended lower, dragged by Bajaj Fin twins and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. The BSE Sensex was down 173.78 points at 38,557.04 and the Nifty50 fell 57 points to 11,498.90. Meanwhile, shares of InterGlobe Aviation registered their steepest drop after the company's promoter Rakesh Gangwal has alleged questionable related-party transactions between the IndiGos parent and private entities.
4) On Thursday, Indian share market after four days of losing streak has closed positively. The Sensex was up 266.07 points at 38,823.11 and the Nifty rallied 84 points to 11,582.90.
5) On Friday, Indian equity benchmarks opened on the positive note.
Broader Index & Global Market:
- Globally, The US Market grew to record high as Trump administration dismissed a plan designed to rein in prescription drug prices, while financial shares rose with bond yields.
- In the broader market, The Mid & Small Cap has traded mixed with stock specific action countinued, The insurance, Infra stock with the company posting the earning will be the focus in coming weeks.
Movers & Shakers
Shares of Religare Enterprises surged nearly 65 percent after Company has entered into a binding term sheet with TCG Advisory Services Pvt Ltd for sale of its entire stake in its troubled NBFC arm, Religare Finvest (RFL) along with RFLs housing finance subsidiary, Religare Housing Development Finance Corporation (RHDFC).
Shares of IndiGO dropped more than 13 percent in a week after the company's promoter Rakesh Gangwal has alleged questionable related-party transactions between the IndiGos parent and private entities.
Key Market Drivers
- China's June forex reserves rise to $3.119 trillion.
- Govt plans to issue overseas bonds in the 2nd half of the current financial year.
- US job creation soars 224,000 in June; unemployment rises to 3.7%.
- RBI panel bats for elongated trading hours for forex.
- Cabinet nod for the bill to ban unregulated deposit schemes
Event Watch
International:
- China GDP YoY
- Japan Trade Balance
Domestic:
- Crude price
- INR Price
- Earning
- India Trade Balance
- India Industrial Prod YoY
Stocks To Watch
HDFCLIFE & KEC On Upside while BPCL & LT on Downside.
Share Market News 11-July-2019
Sensex recovers from 380 pts fall to end flat; Nifty at 11,555; RIL up 2.20 %.
The Indian share market started on a positive note with Sensex gaining by 211.66 points at 38,768.70 and the Nifty grew by 59.50 points at 11,558.40. Amongst global markets, Asian stocks gained and the dollar waned on Thursday following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced prospects of a US interest rate cut succeeding this month. Among sectorial compiled by NSE gained, led by the Nifty Metal Indexs 1.2 percent advance.
The benchmark indices were holding the morning gains, the elevation was provided from the HDFC twins & Ril, which were trading with gains of more than 0.70 percent. The indices, Sensex and nifty were trading at 38,743 & 11,555. The broader market was performing mixed in the afternoon session with a gain of 0.21 percent in mid-cap & loss of 0.05 percent in small-cap. On the sectoral front, all the indices were in the green zone led by Media, Reality & Pharma.
Indian share market after four days of losing streak has closed positively. The Sensex was up 266.07 points at 38,823.11 and the Nifty rallied 84 points to 11,582.90. Among sectors, auto, metal, and media were among the leading contributors to the benchmark indices. In the broader market, The mid & small -cap too had a strong day, closing with the gain of 0.73 & 0.33 percent.
Going ahead, On Immediate term, the support for nifty is coming near 11,535-11,460 zone holding stated levels, the index can see some push towards the resistance of 11650-11,700 zone. The nifty bank has support near 30,550-30,400 zone and resistance is coming near 31850-31080 zone.
Top Gainers
ZEEL by 7.59% to Rs 358.00,JSWSTEEL by 4.96% to Rs 267.55, HEROMOTOCO by 4.59% to Rs 2,510.05, INDUSINDBK by 3.61% to Rs 1,541.00, TATAMOTORSby 3.20% to Rs 156.50.
Top Losers
TECHM By -1.41% to Rs 665.35, ICICIBANK by -1.17% to Rs 425.85,IOC by -0.78% to Rs 147.00, UPL by -0.54% to Rs 631.45, AXISBANK by -0.49% to Rs. 765.45.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
ZEEL is the top gainer in today's market session, After the report by the brokerage houses over the upcoming the result will be positive for zee the company witnessed the buying interest in todays trade.
TECHM is the top loser in today's market, the stock is continually in selling pressure from the last couple of week, today also the stock has sunk by more than 1 percent.
Key Market News
- RBI panel bats for extended trading hours for forex.
- Cabinet nod for the bill to ban unregulated deposit schemes
- Net-net, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 604.94 crore on Wednesday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 667.40 crore
Stocks To Watch
KEC is on the upside while BEML is on the downside.
KEC is currently quoting at Rs.325.15 up by Rs 5.30or 1.66% from its previous closing of Rs.319.85 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.354.70 on 25-JUL-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.233.30 on 29-JAN-2019. The stock has taken the support on its trendline, and bounce back from its current levels in todays session as the buying interest in cash is high in this stock.
TECHM is currently quoting at Rs.665.35 down by Rs. -9.50 or -1.41% from its previous closing of Rs.674.85 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 846.50 on 02-MAY-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 612.40 on 26-JUL-2018. The stock after making the double top on the weekly chart and completing the pattern with the broken neckline with heavy volume is continually trading in a downtrend with lower lows. The stock is likely to continue the same trend going forward.
Share Market News 10-July-2019
Nifty ends below 11,500,Sensex loses 174 pts;IndiGo plunges 10%
Indian benchmark indices fell moderately despite positive Asian cues, caught by TCS earnings which disappointed Street. The Sensex declined by 103.77 points at 38,627.05 and the Nifty50 fell 38 points to 11,517.90. Among sector compiled by NSE gained, led by the NSE Nifty Media Indexs 0.9 percent advance. On the flip side, the NSE Nifty IT Index was the top sectoral loser, down 0.65 percent.
The Indian share market was trading indecisively in a narrow range, with not much of action to been seen in d-street. The Sensex was down by 86 points at 38,644, While Nifty at 11,526.80. Metal, Auto & the PSUbank were the worst-hit sectors, While Media was trading at the positive side. In the broader market, Mid & Small-Cap sank by 0.35 & 0.16 percent.
Indian equity benchmarks ended lower, dragged by Bajaj Fin twins and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. The BSE Sensex was down 173.78 points at 38,557.04 and the Nifty50 fell 57 points to 11,498.90. Meanwhile, shares of InterGlobe Aviation registered their steepest drop after the companys promoter Rakesh Gangwal has alleged questionable related-party transactions between the IndiGos parent and private entities. In a broader outlook, Nifty Midcap, Auto, Metal, PSU Bank and Realty indices all slipped a percent each.
Top Gainers
YESBANK by 2.08% to Rs 93.25,COALINDIA by 1.70% to Rs 233.50, SUNPHARMA by 1.05% to Rs 390.45, ICICIBANK by 0.75% to Rs 431.70, KOTAKBANK by 0.52% to Rs 1,470.50.
Top Losers
BAJFINANCE By -5.11% to Rs 3,419.00, IBULHSGFIN by -4.28% to Rs 657.70,BAJAJFINSV by -3.10% to Rs 7,611.90, TATASTEEL by -3.05% to Rs 454.15., BPCL by -2.85% to Rs. 349.85.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
YESBANK is the top gainer in today's market session, After the positive commentary from the company management the stock is continuously gaining the buying interest.
BAJFINANCE is the top loser in today's market, after the company hinted regarding the slowdown and their balance sheet likely to be hit from it, thus emerged the negative sentiment for the stock.
Key Market News
- Net-net, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 674.26 crore on Tuesday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 711 crore,
Stocks To Watch
KEC is on the upside while BEML is on the downside.
KEC is currently quoting at Rs.320.90 up by Rs 2.40 or 0.75% from its previous closing of Rs.318.50 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.354.70 on 25-JUL-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.233.30 on 29-JAN-2019. The stock is taking the support on its trendlyne , and is expected to bounce back from its current levels as the buying interest in cash is high in this stock.
BEML is currently quoting at Rs.851.00 down by Rs.-26.35 or -3.00% from its previous closing of Rs.877.35 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 1,034.90 on 03-APR-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 521.25 on 26-OCT-2018. The stock after consolidating for last 7 trading session has given a downside breakdown, the confirmation downside candle coupled with the stochastic divergence on the daily chart also indicate the downtrend in the coming session.
Share Market News 09-July-2019
Sensex recovers from 380 pts fall to end flat; Nifty at 11,555; RIL up 2.20 %.
Indian stock markets remained weak for the third day in a row as tax proposals declared in the Union Budget continued to unnerve investors. Moreover, denting the domestic sentiment, global markets have also been on a downtrend. The Sensex fell 69.57 points to 38,651 and the Nifty50 slipped 38.80 points to 11,519.80. Among sector compiled by NSE traded lower, led by the NSE Nifty PSU Bank Indexs 1.1 percent decline. On the flipside, the NSE Nifty Pharma Index was the top sectoral gainer, up 0.34 percent.
The Indian share market after a gap down opening has bounced from days low in the afternoon session. The heavyweight reliance has driven the market higher, trading with the gains of 2.20 percent. The Sensex & Nifty was trading at 39,695.99 &11,553.45. Among sector, Pharma was the top performer, While, IT & FMCG were on the downside.
It was a muted ending for Indian share market in todays trade. The market breadth closed in favor of buyers. About 871 stocks advanced and 860 shares declined on NSE. There was an immense volatile action in a specific counter, which includes Titan, declined nearly 12.25 percent in a day, while, Sunpharma was among the top performer on NSE. The significant role was played by the Reliance Industries posting the gains of 2.47 percent, was the major contributor, for holding the indices higher. In closing, The Sensex rose 10.25 points to 38,730.82 while the Nifty50 fell 2.70 points to 11,555.90. However, the broader market outshines the frontline indices by posting the gains of 0.36 & 0.39 percent in mid & small-cap indices respectively.
Top Gainers
IOC by 5.73% to Rs 152.30,BAJFINANCE by 5.59% to Rs 3,604.00, SUNPHARMA by 5.51% to Rs 387.00,HEROMOTOCO by 3.16% to Rs 2,455.40, BAJAJFINSV by 2.88% to Rs 7,812.00.
Top Losers
TITAN By -12.25% to Rs 1,099.00, UPL by -3.55% to Rs 638.60,TCS by -2.55% to Rs 2,120.00, GAIL by -2.45% to Rs 147.35., HCLTECH by -1.93% to Rs. 1,019.00
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
IOC is the top gainer in today's market session, After the sharp fall in yesterdays trade, the stock witnessed a good buying interest from the lower levels.
TITAN is the top loser in today's market after the company reported subdued revenue growth for the April-June quarter on the back of the tough macroeconomic environment and weak consumption trend.
Key Market News
- Net-net, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 402 crore on Monday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 321 crore.
Stocks To Watch
JUSTDIAL is on the upside while BEML is on the downside.
JUSTDIAL is currently quoting at Rs.802.90 up by Rs 30.95 or 4.01% from its previous closing of Rs.771.95 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.824.80 on 09-JUL-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.409.15 on 01-OCT-2018. The stock has given a channel breakout after consolidating for 23 trading session. The stock is likely to buy in dips candidate.
BEML is currently quoting at Rs.872.80 down by Rs.-11.75 or -1.33% from its previous closing of Rs.884.55 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 1,034.90 on 03-APR-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 521.25 on 26-OCT-2018. The stock after consolidating for last 7 trading session has given a downside breakdown, the confirmation downside candle on the daily chart also indicate the downtrend in the coming session.
Share Market News 08-July-2019
Sensex plunges 793 pts, Nifty holds above 11,550: Bajaj Fin twins top losers.
Indian markets plunged sharply in early trade, disappointed by some Budget proposals in the Union Budget, coupled with the weak global markets. The Sensex fell 250.45 points to 39,262.94 and the Nifty plunged 85.60 points to 11,725.60. In line with benchmark the broder market, Nifty mid & Small-Cap also declined by more than 200 points. All the sectoral gauges compiled by NSE declined, led by the Nifty PSU Bank Indexs 1.7 percent fall.
The drop gets extended with the frontline index trading near its days low. The Sensex was trading at 38,926.62 down by 586 points, while, nifty dropped by 185.55 points at 11,625.10. A massive sell-off was evident in the Mid & Small-Cap, which were down by more than 2.20 percent. The bloodbath was seen across all sectors, Nifty PSUBank & reality were among the worst hit in the afternoon session.
The Indian share market registered one of the worst trading session in a decade. On Friday, After presenting the budget, the market started to slips and the bears took control of the d-street. The tax on buyback, which is likely to hit badly as the companies will now avoid buybacks. Additionally, the proposal to raise the minimum public shareholding limit to 35 percent has been the concerning subject among the market participants. the Sensex fall by 792.82 points or 2.01 percent to 38,720.57 and the Nifty plunged 247.20 points or 2.09 percent to 11,564. Parallel to the frontline the broader markets also tumbled sharply as the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices dropped over 2 percent. All the sectoral gauges compiled by NSE ended lower, led by the Nifty Realty Indexs 6.7 percent decline.
Technically, the Strong support for the index is coming near 11500-11426 zone and the immediate strong hurdle is coming near 11620-11690 zone. the nifty bank closed a day at 30604 with strong loss of 872, the index for a nifty bank is coming near 30500-30200 zone and resistance is coming near 30850-31100 zone for coming days.
Top Gainers
YESBANK by 5.90% to Rs 93.35,HCLTECH by 1.83% to Rs 1,035.05, INFRATEL by 0.59% to Rs 262.55,TCS by 0.37% to Rs 2,171.10, JSWSTEEL by 0.17% to Rs 263.00.
Top Losers
BAJAJFINSV By -10.12% to Rs 7,581.90, BAJFINANCE by -7.77% to Rs 3,430.00,ONGC by -5.57% to Rs 152.50, NTPC by -5.35% to Rs 129.20., HEROMOTOCO by -5.26% to Rs. 2,380.10.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
YESBANK is the top gainer in today's market session After YES Bank said in a regulatory filing that The financial position of YES Bank is sound and stable and its liquidity and operating performance continue to be robust,
BAJAJFINSV is the top loser in today's market, The stock witnessed heavy selling in todays trading session, Closed with a decline of 10.12 percent.
Key Market News
- China's June forex reserves rise to $3.119 trillion.
- Govt plans to issue overseas bonds in the 2nd half of the current financial year.
- US job creation soars 224,000 in June; unemployment rises to 3.7%.
- Net-net, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 89 crore on Friday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 276 crore.
Stocks To Watch
TCS is on the upside while BEML is on the downside.
TCS is currently quoting at Rs.2,171.10 up by Rs 8.00 or 0.37% from its previous closing of Rs.2,163.10 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.2,292.50 on 21-JUN-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.1,784.35 on 29-OCT-2018. The stock in today trade has taken support from the major trendline and shown the strength, additionally, the company will be posting the result on 9th expecting the upward in coming days.
BEML is currently quoting at Rs.888.00 down by Rs.-19.20 or -2.12% from its previous closing of Rs.907.20 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 1,034.90 on 03-APR-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 521.25 on 26-OCT-2018. The stock after consolidating for last 7 trading session has given a downside breakdown, In the near term, it's expected to be in the downtrend.
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