Markets In A Fond Of X-Factor To Fly Higher
May 03, 2019 | 17:09 PM IST
May 03, 2019 | 17:09 PM IST
Our Analysis
With the rising volatility, Indian share market was seen trading in an indecisive manner in this week. In the recent past, the index has been swinging in a broader range of 11,550-11850. In this week, D-street was highly surprised by yes banks March quarter losses. Moreover, rating downgrade for two Reliance ADAG (Anil Ambani Groups) finance companies coupled with continued YoY decline in monthly auto sales ruined the investor's sentiment. The core sector (Infrastructure) growth was the only catalyst during the week which shown 4.7 percent improvement for March-19 and helped the market to sustain in the range bound environment. Apart from this, robust GST collection (1.13 lac crores) was one another positive from the week.
Now we have already stepped in the month of May, and we hope the most often used saying Sell in May and Go away would not be the case this time. According to our analysis of the past 10 years, 5 out of 10 times the market has cherished the wealth of the investors during the month of May. Among these, 2009 was the most favourable year for the investors where wealth was made at a pace of more than 20 percent. Even in the year of 2014, investors bagged the return of around 8 percent during the same period. Considering these historical patterns of Nifty and Sensex, we may conclude at a point that, markets are likely to provide good returns during the election years and also in the month of May.
Currently, there are talks around about Niftys premium valuations which may suggest you stay away from the markets but there is no need to be panic if you are a long term investor. We have also analyzed the trends among developed and developing markets across the globe, which suggests that if earnings are good and able to justify the market valuations then markets didnt get impacted with those valuations. And right now, the earnings for this quarter are bit better than previous quarters. Therefore, a stable government would remain a key for future market trends.
This Weeks Market Highlights:
Benchmark Indices:
1) On Tuesday, Though overall weakness was seen in the market throughout the day, the IT sector emerged as a brave warrior which helped Nifty to recover post afternoon session. Owing to solid buying in the IT space Nifty managed to sustain above 11700 marks. Closing today's trade Nifty marked 11748.15 level, whereas the Sensex was at 39031.55.
2) Thursday was yet another day for Indian share market to close on flat to negative note. On the expiry day, NiftyBank followed benchmark indices and closed with no gains. Heavyweight HDFC Twins & Reliance has backed nifty to hold 11700 marks. On the closing basis, Sensex was down by 50.13 points at 38981.43 and Nifty at 11724.75.
3) On Friday, Indian share market started on flat to a positive note.
Broader Index & Global Market:
- Globally, FOMC announced that it will leave the interest rate unchanged resulting in a pullback in the stocks from the higher level. Other than that the BREXIT and trade talks have been moderated.
- In the broader market, The Mid & Small Cap had traded mixed in this week, With the result, oriented action continued to take place.
Movers & Shakers
Shares of DCM Shriram surged nearly 10 percent after the company reported a nearly six-fold jump in net profit at Rs 293 crore for the fourth quarter of the last fiscal. Net revenue from operations grew by 21 percent to Rs 1,888 crore from Rs 1,566 crore YoY.
Shares of YESBANK dropped more than 25 percent in a week after many brokerage firms downgraded the stock and cut target price after the lender reported surprise quarterly loss and the guidance to lower growth in the ongoing financial year.
Key Market Drivers
- The Finance Ministry has approved 8.65 percent rate of interest on Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) for 2018-19 as decided by retirement fund body EPFO.
- The government has hiked the customs duty on wheat to 40 percent from 30 percent to curb imports and protect the domestic industry.
- China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recorded at 50.1.
- China Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recorded at 50.2.
- India's cotton imports are likely to rise by 80 percent this crop year (October 2018 to September 2019), due to short supply of quality material for textile mills.
- Goods and services tax (GST) collection touched a record high in April, exceeding Rs 1 trillion for the third time in four months. The mop-up was 10 percent higher over the previous year.
- The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.8 in April from 52.6 in March.
- India's March infrastructure output grows 4.7 percent vs 4.3 percent from the previous year
Event Watch
International:
- Nikkei Japan PMI Services
- China Trade Balance
- China CPI YoY
- Caixin China PMI Services
- US CPI YoY
Domestic:
- India PMI Services
- India Industrial Prod YoY
- Crude Movement
- Q4FY2019 Earning
- INR Price
Stocks To Watch
Tejas Network & Jk paper On Upside while Berger paints & Biocon Downside.
Share Market News 02-May-2019
An indecisive day for Nifty & Sensex; VIX spikes 5%.
On the weekly expiry day, the Indian share market opened flat with a negative Bias. Sensex was down by 61.16 points at 38,970.39 and Nifty at 11,725.70. On the sectoral front, except Infra and FMCG, all other sectoral indices were trading in the red. In the opening bell, auto sector stocks were on investors radar. Monthly auto sales number and expected movement owing to those numbers was the keen reason behind this.
In the afternoon session, the Indian share market was trading higher. The Sensex was trading at 39132.91 up 101.36 points and Nifty at 11766.50. The HDFC Twins and Reliance were the stocks who kept the indices at the higher levels. In the broader market, mid-cap was up by 0.07 percent and Small-cap was trading higher by 0.59 percent. Banking, Reality & Infra were the performers of the noon whereas IT and Pharma took the major beating during the session.
It was another day for Indian share market to close on flat to negative note. On the expiry day, NiftyBank followed benchmark indices and closed with no gains. Heavyweight HDFC Twins & Reliance has backed nifty to hold 11700 mark. On the closing basis, Sensex was down by 50.13 points at 38981.43 and Nifty at 11724.75. Once again Indian VIX surged to 23-Mark with a 5.27 percent of the movement today. On the sectoral front, Reality and Infra were in the green.
In today's trade, market participants were much focused on news driven stocks.Bandhan bank and Escort are the best examples for this, weak monthly sales figures led Escort down nearly by 8 percent. However, on the contrary, strong earnings from Bandhan bank pushed the stock up by 5 percent.
The aggressive stance of the investors is likely to continue in the near term. On the micro level Earnings and corporate news will be the key areas to watch for the investors.
Top Gainers
INFRATEL by 3.60% to Rs 272.00. ,YESBANK by 3.57% to Rs 174.00 ,POWERGRID by 2.04% to Rs 190.20, HEROMOTOCO by 1.72% to Rs 2,555.00, HDFCBANK by 1.66% to Rs 2,356.00.
Top Losers
BRITANIA By -4.01 % to Rs 2,780.00 , ZEEL by -3.57% to Rs 417.15 ,TATAMOTORS by -3.45% to Rs 206.90, INDUSINDBK by -3.17% to Rs 1,555.50.,ICICIBANK by -3.13% to Rs. 394.75.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
INFRATEL is the top gainer in today's market session, Bharti Airtel and the Vodafone Group are in discussions with a consortium led by private equity firm KKR to sell over half their stakes in the to-be-merged entity of telecom tower firms Bharti Infratel and Indus Towers.
BRITANIA is the top loser in today's market, After reporting the Q4FY2019 result, Net profit rose 11.8 percent YoY to Rs 294 crore, Revenue up 10.3 percent to Rs 2,764 crore. Ebitda up 10 percent to Rs 436 crore. Margin flat at 15.6 percent. Recommended dividend of Rs 15 per share.
Key Market News
- India's cotton imports are likely to rise by 80 percent this crop year (October 2018 to September 2019), due to short supply of quality material for textile mills
- Goods and services tax (GST) collection touched a record high in April, exceeding Rs 1 trillion for the third time in four months. The mop-up was 10 percent higher over the previous year.
- The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.8 in April from 52.6 in March.
- India's March infrastructure output grows 4.7 percent vs 4.3 percent from the previous year.li>
- Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought Rs 730.02 crore worth of domestic stocks on Tuesday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 115 crore.
Stocks To Watch
HDFCLIFE is on the upside while DABUR is on the downside.
HDFCLIFE is currently quoting at Rs.417.10 up by Rs 12.55 or 3.10% from its previous closing of Rs.404.55 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.548.25 on 14-MAY-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.344.40 on 28-JAN-2019. The stock after trading in a channel from last 8 month has broken the upper level and likely to remain bullish in the coming days.
DABUR is currently quoting at Rs.382.80 down by Rs.-15.30 or -3.84% from its previous closing of Rs.398.10 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 490.65 on 27-AUG-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 362.60 on 05-NOV-2018. The company reported a fall of 6.46 percent in consolidated net profit to Rs 371.49 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2019. The stock is likely to remain in selling pressure in nearby further.
Share Market News 30-April-2019
IT Leads Recovery In The Market, Nifty, Sensex Ends On flat Note
Negative manufacturing data of China hampered global market sentiments which in turn reflected on the Indian share markets. After an election leave markets started on a negative note where Sensex was down by 60.31 points while the Nifty declined by 27.20 points and started at 11727.50. On the sectoral front, The banking stocks had witnessed the selling pressure. Yes bank was among the most beaten stocks in the opening session today, with a major beating of 25% in a single session. However, on the contrary, FMCG was trading in the green zone and looked promising.
In the afternoon session, blood bath was seen on the D-street, where every stock with some or other negative sentiments got punished badly. The overall market was seen under pressure where nifty slipped below 11700 mark and Sensex traded down by 208 points. IBULHSGFIN, YESBANK, INDUSINDBK, JETAIRWAYS, DHFL were the most sold stocks and were down by 5 percent or more. On the broader level, Mid and small-cap indices were also seen under pressure and were down by one percent or more. IT sector was the only exceptional case today as it has managed to survive even in the blood bath and was seen trading in the green.
Though overall weakness was seen in the market throughout the day, the IT sector emerged as a brave warrior which helped Nifty to recover post afternoon session. Owing to solid buying in the IT space Nifty managed to sustain above 11700 mark. Closing todays trade Nifty marked 11748.15 level, whereas the Sensex was at 39031.55. Considering the election concerns, market participants were seen shifting their investment preference to IT sector. IT stocks offer the rupee movement benefits which makes them darling to the investors when it comes to the uncertainty in the domestic macros. Other than IT, metal and Media sector were among the top performers today. On the broader level, Mid & Small-cap indices closed in negative zones. Further, auto sales numbers for April and the outcome of FOMC meet (May 1, 2019) will remain on the radar for the fellow investors.
Top Gainers
JSWSTEEL by 5.41% to Rs 309.90. ,ZEEL by 4.06% to Rs 434.65 ,IOC by 3.70% to Rs 158.50, HCLTECH by 3.53% to Rs 1,180.00, TATASTEEL by 2.60% to Rs 559.45.
Top Losers
YESBANK By -29.70 % to Rs 166.75 , IBULHSGFIN by -6.40% to Rs 691.20 ,INDUSINDBK by -5.80% to Rs 1,600.30, HEROMOTOCO by -3.80% to Rs 2,505.05.,INFRATEL by -3.79% to Rs. 262.55.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
JSWSTEEL is the top gainer in today's market session, After the strong performance posting in Q4 by Tata steel, The market participants are expecting the same with the JSW steel thereafter a strong buying was seen in today's trade, Stock was up nearly 6 percent.
YESBANK is the top loser in today's market After many brokerage firms downgraded the stock and cut target price after the lender reported surprise quarterly loss and guided to lower growth in the ongoing financial year.
Key Market News
- The Finance Ministry has approved 8.65 percent rate of interest on Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) for 2018-19 as decided by retirement fund body EPFO
- The government has hiked the customs duty on wheat to 40 percent from 30 percent to curb imports and protect the domestic industry.
- China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recorded at 50.1.
- China Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recorded at 50.2.
- Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold Rs 70.73 crore worth of domestic stocks on Friday,DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 921 crore.
Stocks To Watch
GREAVESCOT is on the upside while AMBUJACEM is on the downside.
GREAVESCOT is currently quoting at Rs.149.00 up by Rs 8.70 or 6.20% from its previous closing of Rs.140.30 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.165.00 on 04-SEP-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.111.05 on 24-OCT-2018. The company is likely to post strong Q4 result which is scheduled on 2nd May, In today's trade, The stock moved with strong volume highest in last 30 trading session and has shown a strong price action
AMBUJACEM is currently quoting at Rs.220.25 down by Rs.-5.75 or -2.54% from its previous closing of Rs.226.00 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 252.75 on 30-APR-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 188.35 on 31-OCT-2018. The company is likely to post a weaker set of number as compare to peers, As the company doesn't have its presence in the south which has witnessed higher price hike of cement and overall the chart seems week.
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