The Chase Starts For The Dream Of 5 Trillion Economy
Jul 05, 2019 | 17:45 PM IST
Jul 05, 2019 | 17:45 PM IST
Our Analysis
This week the Indian share market had a steady move, there was certainly a miss in a dynamic move as selling was emerging in each rise. However, the positive development among the US & China trade deal in G20 summit, advance the nifty a 200 points runs from last Friday's close.
Indias fear index VIX was beneath normal with an average OI in the derivatives side. This indicated the lower expectation from the union budget 2019. Specifically, the sectors which are likely to be benefited from the budget performed well in this week. This includs PSUs, Gold jewelry company's, Power sector, etc. Besides, The economic survey conducted by the chief economic adviser Krishamurthy Subramanian given a positive sentiment for investors as it shows a GDP growth speeding up, investment recovery and had also outlined blueprint to achieve Modi's dream of $5 trillion economy.
In the coming week, the Union budget will drive the sentiment for a while as we can witness a buying/accumulation accordingly. The next trigger for d-street will be the earnings session which would be starting off in the next week with the IT giant TCS results.
Key Highlights Of Budget 2019:
- The FY20 fiscal deficit target has been cut to 3.3% from 3.4%.
- Sitharaman announced a fund infusion of Rs 70,000 crore into PSBs to strengthen them and enhance lending capacity.
- The government is setting an enhanced target of Rs 1.05 crore for disinvestment during FY20 and will continue with disinvestment of PSUs in the non-financial space.
- The proposal to increase minimum public shareholding in companies to 35 percent from 25 percent.
- Pension benefits will be offered to 3 crore shopowners with an annual turnover of less than Rs 1.5 crore under a new scheme called Pradhan Mantri Karamyogi Mandhan Scheme
- FY20 GST revenue target has been set at Rs 6.6 lakh crore including CGST of Rs 5.26 lakh crore.
- The government proposes an increase in customs duty on gold and other precious metals to 12.5 percent and a special additional excise duty of Re 1/Litre on petrol and diesel.
- A 5 percent customs duty on imported books and increase on auto parts, synthetic rubber, PVC, vinyl flooring and tiles.
- A surcharge will be levied on individuals with a taxable income of Rs 2 to 5 crore, and Rs 5 cr and above. The effective tax rate for these categories will increase by around 3 percentage points and 7 percentage points, respectively.
- The government proposes to levy TDS of 2% on cash withdrawal exceeding Rs 1 crore in a year from a bank account.
- The net-owned fund requirement to Rs 1,000 crore from Rs 5,000 crore for insurers/reinsurers setting up operations in the International Financial Services Centre.
- 25 percent corporate tax rate is applicable to companies with an annual turnover of up to Rs 250 crore. This has been extended to companies with a turnover of up to Rs 400 crore.
- No angel tax for startups registered with the government. Funds raised by starts-up to not attract I-T scrutiny.
- Taxpayers with an annual turnover of less than Rs 5 crore will have to file only quarterly returns.
- Sitharaman stated that India has emerged as a major space power. It is time to harness our ability commercially. To harness India's space ability commercially, a public sector enterprise, New Space India Limited (NSIL) has been incorporated to tap benefits of ISRO
- Sitharaman proposes to make the two documents interchangeable so that Aadhaar can be used for verification with no requirement for PAN.
- To make EVs affordable the government will provide additional income tax reduction of Rs 1.5 lakh on interest paid on loan taken to purchase EV.
- The government plans to allow FPIs to Subscribe to listed debt papers of REITs and InviTs, adding there is also a proposal to merge the NRI portfolio route with FPI routes.
- On purchase of high-rate pooled assets of NBFC amounting of Rs 1 lakh crore in this FY, govt will provide one-time 6-month credit guarantee.
Government Targeted Revenue Drivers :
- The government expects Rs 57,480 cr from PSU companies' dividends in FY20
- Aim to get Rs 1.06 lakh cr from RBI, banks' dividend in FY20
- Non-tax revenue target at Rs 3.13 lakh cr
- Net tax revenue target at Rs 6.49 lakh cr
- Gross tax revenue target at Rs 24.6 lakh cr
- Aims to get Rs 3 lakh cr from small savings schemes
- Net borrowing target at Rs 4.73 lakh cr
- Gross borrowing target at Rs 7.1 lakh cr
This Weeks Market Highlights:
Benchmark Indices:
1) On Monday, Indian share market in-line with global market following the US-china trade truce closed higher. on the anticipated policy to come by on Friday budget speech, explicit stock/sector was on the investor's radar including such as reality, gold jewellery, PSU bank, etc. The major contributor in the nifty was the HDFC Twins & RIL. Altogether it was a healthy close with Sensex up by 291.66 points at 39,686.50, while Nifty was up 76.70 points at 11,865.60.
2) On Tuesday, Benchmark indices rebounded from the days low with the heavyweight HDFC, RIL & INFY leading the move to settle nifty above 11,900. Once again the power stock was on the spotlight as a robust buying was witnessed. At closing, the Sensex gained 129.98 points to finish at 39,816.48 and the Nifty50 climbed 44.70 points to 11,910.30.
3) On Wednesday, It was a choppy session for the Indian share market. The frontline indices were seen moving in the narrow range with not much of the action to view. Nevertheless, the Nifty defended 11,900 marks and closed at 11,916.75 and Sensex at 39,839.25 up by 23 points.
4) On thrusday, selling was emerging in each rise, closing the indices on flat to a positive note. The Sensex grew by 68.81 points at 39,908.06, while Nifty was up by 21.20 points at 11,938. among sector compiled by NSE ended higher, led by the PSU Bank Indexs 1.3 percent gain. On the flipside, the Metal Index was the top sectoral loser, down 1.1 percent
5) On Friday, Benchmark indices opened moderately higher ahead of Union Budget 2019
Broader Index & Global Market:
- Globally, On the expectation of dovish stance from the fed, as largely disappointing data provided enough evidence of slowing economy. On that, the US market had a healthy bull run. Additionally the positive geoplotician devlopment also boosted some sentiment after the G-20 summit.
- In the broader market, The Mid & Small Cap has outperformed the benchmark indices with a stock specific accumulation continue to take place, buying was seen in PSU, Reality & Power stocks.
Movers & Shakers
Shares of IBULHSGFIN surged nearly 18 percent after the company moved to RBI to buy back non-convertible debentures worth 1,375 crore maturing in September and 1,330-crore rupee-denominated bonds (masala bonds) maturing in October.
Shares of L&T Infotech dropped more than 8 percent in a week after Apple cuts ties with L&T Infotech following alleged immigration procedure violation.
Key Market Drivers
- RBI eases leverage ratio for banks to raise their lending capacity.
- India Inc's foreign borrowing jumps to $3.55 bn in May
- China's factory activity shortens as US tariffs, slowdown hit orders
- BSE launches commodity derivative trading in turmeric
- GST collection of 99,939 crores in the month of Jun.
- The eight core index grew by 5.1 percent in may, witnessing the growth in the steel sector was most among others.
- Indias gold imports rose 12.6 percent in June amid a jump in global prices to six-year highs.
- Steel ministry had comes up with the draft steel scrap policy.
- Japan service sector growth picks up: PMI
- RBI forms working group to review regulatory framework for core investment company's.
Event Watch
International:
- Japan PPI YoY US CPI YoY
- China CPI YoY
- US CPI YoY
Domestic:
- Crude price
- INR Price
- Earning
- China Trade Balance
- India CPI YoY
- India Industrial Prod YoY
Stocks To Watch
ITC & SBIN On Upside while VEDL & TECHM on Downside.
Share Market News 04-July-2019
Sensex rises for 3rd day, up 23 pts; Nifty above 11,900; PSU Bank Shines
Indian share market started on a flat note, ahead of Union Budget scheduled on July 5. Sensex was up 66.64 points at 39,905.89, while Nifty grew by 22.50 points at 11939.30. Among the sectors, PSU bank led the gainers followed by IT, pharma and auto, while selling seen in the metal index. The focus will be on the banking stock in todays trade on hopes that public sector banks will get recapitalization by the government in the upcoming Budget.
In the afternoon session, the Indian share market has cooled off from its days high. The Sensex was trading 39,881 up 42 points & nifty at 11,396.10. It was the mixed performance on the sectoral front with banking, media & reality were the upside contributor, while metal & pharma on the downside. The Mid-cap & Smallcap were seen trading with marginal gains of 0.02 & 0.37 percent.
In todays trading session, selling was emerging in each rise, closing the indices on flat to a positive note. The Sensex grew by 68.81 points at 39,908.06, while Nifty was up by 21.20 points at 11,938. among sector compiled by NSE ended higher, led by the PSU Bank Indexs 1.3 percent gain. On the flipside, the Metal Index was the top sectoral loser, down 1.1 percent. The broader market had a mixed closing, with mid-cap down by 0.03 percent & Small cap was higher by 0.48 percent.
The economic survey conducted by the chief economic adviser Krishamurthy Subramanian indicates a GDP growth speeding up, investment recovery & had also outlined blueprint to achieve Modi's dream of $5 trillion economies. Besides, Nifty and Nifty Bank forming Doji sort of candle pattern since three-four sessions suggest indecision in the markets before Budget. Nifty has strong resistance around 12,000 marks any decisive break above 12,000 will only lead in the strong move towards 12,100-12,200 zone or else every rise will use for profit booking, support for the index is coming near 11,900-11,850 zone.
Top Gainers
UPL by 6.87% to Rs 696.55,BHARTIARTL by 2.52% to Rs 362.10, BRITANNIA by 1.91% to Rs 2,848.00,TATAMOTORS by 1.76% to Rs 165.15, ULTRACEMCO by 1.71% to Rs 4,639.00.
Top Losers
YESBANK By -3.06% to Rs 96.70, TITAN by -2.90% to Rs 1,289.95,ZEEL by -1.26% to Rs 356.65, JSWSTEEL by -1.19% to Rs 274.10., HCLTECH by -1.11% to Rs. 1,039.50.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
UPL is the top gainer in today's market session, The stock in expectation of some policies from union budget toward the farmer that can boost the spending power and cultivation can benefit the UPL.
YESBANK is the top loser in today's market after the news of the default is been circulated there is immense selling pressure in the stock.
Key Market News
- Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 390 crore on Wednesday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 288 crore.
- RBI forms working group to review regulatory framework for core investment company's.
Stocks To Watch
VGUARD is on the upside while TITAN is on the downside.
VGUARD is currently quoting at Rs.247.50 up by Rs 5.60 or 2.32% from its previous closing of Rs.241.90 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.252.00 on 26-JUN-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.159.40 on 09-OCT-2018. The company is likely to post a good quarterly result, Additional, On the technical front, the stock has seen a good buying interest and closed with the heavy volumes.
TITAN is currently quoting at Rs.1,289.95 down by Rs.-38.50 or -2.90% from its previous closing of Rs.1,328.45 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 1,340.90 on 01-JUL-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 732.30 on 09-OCT-2018. The company has been downgraded by numerous brokerage house as the valuation is not likely to justify its current market price, Moreover, the stock has witnessed the selling pressure from higher levels and likely to remain so in coming days.
Share Market News 03-July-2019
Sensex rises for 3rd day, up 23 pts; Nifty above 11,900; PSU Bank Shines
Indian share market opened lowered on the back of mixed global cues. Global newsflows (G20 summit, tariff war developments), Union Budget expectations and monsoon progress are key monitorable, which is likely to keep investor cautious. In the early trade, the Sensex was down by 47.44 points at 39,769.04 & Nifty at 11,899.90. On the sectoral, IT, Metal, & FMCG were trading marginally higher, While buying was seen in the auto, infra and energy space.
In the afternoon session, the Indian share market was trading flat with Sensex up by 27 points at 39,843.79 and Nifty at 11,916.00. In the broader market Mid & Small -Cap was trading higher by 0.20 & 0.29 percent. Among sector PSUBank & Media were the top performers, While Pharma and Metal were on the selling side. The Crude was seen giving the following trend of yesterdays sharp fall.
It was a choppy session for the Indian share market. The frontline indices were seen moving in the narrow range with not much of the action to view. Nevertheless, the Nifty defended 11,900 marks and closed at 11,916.75 and Sensex at 39,839.25 up by 23 points. In the broader market, the Mid & Small-Cap had closed with the gains of 0.39 & 0.35 percent. Among sector, Media, PSU bank & Reality were on the advancing side, while Nifty IT was the top loser with the decline of 0.91 percents. The Nifty & BankNifty are trading near its trendline resistance, the upcoming weekly expiry & the union budget is anticipated to bring some significant movement with the surge in the volatility.
Top Gainers
IBULHSGFIN by 7.50% to Rs 690.60,INDUSINDBK by 3.99% to Rs 1,473.00, ITC by 1.22% to Rs 277.20,ZEEL by 1.19% to Rs 360.65, GRASIM by 1.11% to Rs 930.00.
Top Losers
EICHERMOT By -2.74% to Rs 19,585.55, GAIL by -1.91% to Rs 305.40,TECHM by -1.44% to Rs 701.40, VEDL by -1.37% to Rs 172.25., DRREDDY by -1.33% to Rs. 2,592.80.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
IBULHSGFIN is the top gainer in today's market session, After Company informed exchanges that it has redeemed (bought back) secured, redeemable, non-convertible debentures of face value Rs 10,00,000 each.
EICHERMOT is the top loser in today's market after the company recorded a sharp decline in the June monthly sales number.
Key Market News
- Japan service sector growth picks up: PMI
- Net-net, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 512 crore on Tuesday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 141.09 crore.
Stocks To Watch
JUST DIAL is on the upside while WHIRLPOOL is on the downside.
JUST DIAL is currently quoting at Rs.786.95 up by Rs 22.35 or 2.92% from its previous closing of Rs.764.60 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.819.70 on 03-JUN-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.409.15 on 01-OCT-2018. The stock after consolidating for the last couple of week is likely to resume its uptrend, as the increase in volume is also indicating the same.
WHIRLPOOL is currently quoting at Rs.1,600.00 down by Rs.-51.60 or -3.12% from its previous closing of Rs.1,651.60 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 1,954.70 on 02-SEP-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 1,263.80 on 05-OCT-2018. The stock is currently cooling off from its overbought zone, So in the coming days, the stock can witnesses the lower levels.
Share Market News 02-July-2019
Nifty ends above 11,900, Sensex gains for the second day; Tech outshines.
Indian share market started on the flat note, tracking weak cues from global equities amid concerns of a global economic slowdown. the Sensex was up by 3.70 points or 0.01% at 39690.20, and the Nifty grew by 1.90 points or 0.02% at 11867.50. Among sectors, buying seen in the energy, FMCG space, while auto, IT, metal and pharma are under pressure
In the afternoon session, the Indian share market was trading at days low. Pharma, banking & reality stock was among the top losers, contributing to haul the frontline indices lower. The Sensex was 145 points lower at 39,541 & nifty was at 11,826. The selling was evident in the mid & small cap also, declining by 0.11 & 0.43 percent respectively.
Benchmark indices rebounded from the days low with the heavyweight HDFC, RIL & INFY leading the move to settle nifty above 11,900. Once again the power stock was on the spotlight as a robust buying was witnesses in todays trade. At closing, the Sensex gained 129.98 points to finish at 39,816.48 and the Nifty50 climbed 44.70 points to 11,910.30. However, the broader market ended with the mixed show, As Mid-cap index closed with the gains of 0.37 percent & small-cap closed with a decline of 0.08 percent. On the sectoral front, the sector compiled by NSE ended lower, led by the Nifty Realty Indexs 1.59 percent fall. On the flipside, the Nifty IT Index was the top sectoral gainer, up 1.04 percent.
In the near term, volatility is likely to remain high and hence we maintain our cautious stance on the markets at higher levels. The upcoming Union Budget is likely to provide further direction to the market. Globally, while the temporary trade truce between the US and China is a positive development, the recently escalated tensions between the US and Iran could continue to induce high volatility across indices. Further, market participants would closely monitor the monsoon progress, movement of crude oil prices and currency fluctuations
Top Gainers
UPL by 3.75% to Rs 655.85,ONGC by 2.98% to Rs 165.80, IBULHSGFIN by 2.83% to Rs 639.55,IOC by 2.01% to Rs 154.70, EICHERMOT by 1.86% to Rs 19,991.10.
Top Losers
YESBANK By -8.29% to Rs 100.10, TATAMOTORS by -2.68% to Rs 163.50,SUNPHARMA by -2.63% to Rs 394.70, DRREDDY by -1.01% to Rs 2,628.00., AXISBANK by -0.97% to Rs. 802.55..
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
UPL is the top gainer in today's market session, The stock after adjusting to its bonus price saw a healthy buying interest from the investors.
YESBANK is the top loser in today's market after the report came that a Mumbai-based Radius Developers has defaulted on scheduled interest payments on an Rs 1,200-crore loan to the private lender.
Key Market News
- GST collection of 99,939 crores in the month of Jun.
- The eight core index grew by 5.1 percent in may, witnessing the growth in the steel sector was most among others.
- Indias gold imports rose 12.6 percent in June amid a jump in global prices to six-year highs.
- Steel ministry comes up with draft steel scrap policy.
- Net-net, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 426.53 crore on Monday, DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 51 crore.
Stocks To Watch
M&M is on the upside while QUESS is on the downside.
M&M is currently quoting at Rs.667.60 up by Rs 7.60 or 1.15% from its previous closing of Rs.660.00 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.993.00 on 29-AUG-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.597.20 on 16-MAY-2019. The stock after consolidating for a couple of days, the stock had resumed its upward trend and likely to remain so in coming days.
QUESS is currently quoting at Rs.518.50 down by Rs.-35.85 or -6.47% from its previous closing of Rs.554.35 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 1,144.40 on 02-JUL-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 511.50 on 02-JUL-2019. The stock is continuously trading in the downtrend making lower lows, hitting 52 weeks low each day with the rise in the volume and may continue the same pattern going ahead.
Share Market News 01-July-2019
Nifty tops 11,850, Sensex up 290 pts, Over US-China trade truce.
Tracking the positive global market, the Indian share market opened higher. the Sensex was up by 201.06 points or 0.51% at 39,595.70, and the Nifty advanced by 57.80 points or 0.49% at 11846.70. All the sectoral indices were trading in the green led by metal, pharma, FMCG, auto, banks, energy, and infra. Rupee also gained for the sixth session on the lower deficit, trade truce. The Indian currency has opened higher by 12 paise at 68.90 per dollar on Monday against Friday close of 69.02.
The auto sector after posting a decline in monthly sales figure was trading higher since the numbers were in-line with the estimates. In the afternoon session, the Sensex was trading at 39,696.42 up by 301.78 points, while the nifty at 11872.00. The HDFC Twins & reliance were the major contributors in the benchmark indices trading with the gains of more than 1 percent. The broader market was also trading higher, with mid & small grew by 0.49 & 0.33 percent.
Indian share market in-line with global market following the US-china trade truce closed higher. In todays trade, on the anticipated policy to come by on Friday budget speech, explicit stock/sector was on the investor's radar including such as reality, gold jewellery, PSU bank, etc. The major contributor in the nifty was the HDFC Twins & RIL. Altogether it was a healthy close with Sensex up by 291.66 points at 39,686.50, while Nifty was up 76.70 points at 11,865.60. among sector compiled by NSE ended higher, led by the Nifty Media Indexs 3.4 percent advance. On the flipside, the NSE Nifty IT Index was the top sectoral loser, down 0.2 percent. The broader market also had a positive closing with Mid & Small-Cap up by 0.17 & 0.59 percent.
Top Gainers
ZEEL by 8.37% to Rs 367.00,DRREDDY by 4.06% to Rs 2,653.95, BAJAJ-AUTO by 3.11% to Rs 2,915.00,TATAMOTORS by 3.11% to Rs 167.60, HDFC by 2.65% to Rs 2,250.10..
Top Losers
BPCL By -4.10% to Rs 376.35, ONGC by -3.87% to Rs 161.25,IOC by -2.44% to Rs 152.10, COALINDIA by -1.79% to Rs 249.25., HCLTECH by -1.46% to Rs. 1,049.10.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
ZEEL is the top gainer in today's market session, The last hour buying in the stock help the stock to be the top performer in Nifty50.
BPCL is the top loser in today's market, The recent rise in the crude price had put the pressure OMCc, resulting in the BPCL to be the top loser.
Key Market News
- RBI eases leverage ratio for banks to raise their lending capacity.
- India Inc's foreign borrowing jumps to $3.55 bn in May
- China's factory activity shortens as US tariffs, slowdown hit orders
- BSE launches commodity derivative trading in turmeric
- Net-net, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were a net seller of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 513.91 crore on Friday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 182.40 crore.
Stocks To Watch
CHAMBLFERT is on the upside while GLENMARK is on the downside.
CHAMBLFERT is currently quoting at Rs.182.90 up by Rs 7.80 or 4.45% from its previous closing of Rs.175.10 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.195.00 on 10-JUN-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.128.10 on 08-OCT-2018. The stock after consolidating a couple of the week has given a fresh break-out with a rise in the volume. The stock is likely to be an uptrend in the coming days.
GLENMARK is currently quoting at Rs.441.10 down by Rs.-2.25 or -0.51% from its previous closing of Rs.443.35 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 711.90 on 10-SEP-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 439.00 on 01-JUL-2019. The stock is continuously trading in the downtrend making lower lows, hitting 52 weeks low each day and is expected to continue in the coming days.
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