Tiding Volatility Patiently Could Lead To Higher Returns

Share Market Weekly

Our Analysis

This week market witnessed a bidirectional run where bears dominated most of the trading sessions. Lofty market valuations, substandard monsoon expectations, NBFCs liquidity crisis remained some serious botts' dots for the market. However, a series of meetings by Prime Minister and Finance Minister to draw a road map for 100 days agenda and budget, provided confidence to the market.

The confidence was further boosted by the macros. A relief rally in the global markets on account of the dovish stance by federal reserve turned on the domestic market sentiments. On the back of all these factors, on the weekly expiry day markets spiked by 488 points.

Technically, the Nifty was seen taking the support at 50 EMA through-out the week. A Doji created on Tuesday followed by flat close indicates a short spanned halt in the downfall. Nifty seems to be retraced above 38.02 percent from the bottom on Thursday but the same was not supported by the volumes. So, bide your time till the next retracement point of 61.8 percent which is hanging at 11940, the wait will cater you with newer highs.

As we are entering in the monthly expiry week ahead expect prolonged volatility. With no major event on the domestic front, the budget remains the key trigger for the market. Till then its supposed to stay away from the debt-ridden stocks which are recently driven by the operators and traders. Jet Airways tops the list however there are many following the cue Reliance infra, reliance capital, Jain irrigation are some of them. Being a smart investor, keep your stance cautiously optimistic till upcoming budget. Being a major economic event it can shed some light on markets direction ahead.

This Weeks Market Highlights:

Benchmark Indices:

1) On Monday, The Indian share market in the last hour of trade accelerated the pace of decline with benchmark indices closing with a drop of more than 1 percent. the bloodshed leading from metal, pharma & bank spread across all sectors. The selling also followed in the broader market with Mid & Small-cap down more than 1.20 percent. In closing, the Sensex shrink by 491.28 points at 38,960.79, while Nifty declined by 148.40 points at 11,674.90.

2) On Tuesday, The last hour of trading in d-street was highly volatile with frontline indices fluctuating between gains & losses. However, the market turned around and given a positive closing with 85.55 points Sensex gains whereas Nifty grew by 19.30 points at 11,691.50.

3) On Wednesday, In the last hour of trade, benchmark indices witnessed a see-saw trade with the rise in volatility. The selling pressure remained through-out the day after a gap up opening. However, the closing of frontline indices was flat to positive with Sensex up by 66.40 points at 39112.74, while Nifty ended flat at 11691.50.

4) On Thursday, the Indian share market had witnessed a spectacular run in today's trade, with buying emerged across the market. The Sensex rallied 488.89 points or 1.25 percent to 39,601.63 and the Nifty climbed 140.30 points or 1.20 percent to 11,831.80. Among sector, All the eleven sectoral gauges compiled by NSE advanced, led by the Nifty Pharma Index 3.06 percent gains. Parallel to benchmark indices the broader market also closed with the gains of more than 1.50 percent.

5) On Friday, Indian equity benchmarks opened lower.

Broader Index & Global Market:

- Globally, the US markets were seen on the rise as optimism on future rate cuts by the Fed overshadowed geopolitical tensions. The kickstart in the US-chain trade talk also provides positive sentiment throughout the globe. however, the US-Iran saga over the oil tank attack is likely to be taking the negative turn and will be creating some buzz in the crude price, also the decrease in us crude inventories resulted in the rally in Brent crude

- In the broader market, The Mid & Small Cap was traded mixed with a stock specific action continued. Going ahead, the investor should focus on investing in the quality mid-cap business for the time horizon of 18-24 months.

Movers & Shakers

Shares of HEXAWARE surged nearly 8 percent after Japanese brokerage Nomura upgraded to the company to 'neutral' from 'reduce' after the acquisition of Mobiquity and also increased the target price to Rs 340 from Rs 325 earlier.

Shares of JAIN IRRIGATION dropped more than 30 percent in a week after India Ratings and Research said it had downgraded Jain Irrigation Systems' Long-Term Issuer Rating to BBB from A-. It has currently being placed on 'Rating Watch Negative' (RWN).

Key Market Drivers

  • Oil grew on tensions of Middle East tanker attacks.
  • India imposes higher customs duty in 28 US products retaliating the US.
  • Exports up by 3.93% in May; the trade deficit had widened to $15.36 bn.
  • Fitch cuts the India growth forecast to 6.6% for FY20
  • Hiring activity records 11% rise in May: Report
  • The Reserve Bank of India said it will infuse Rs 12,500 crore of liquidity into the system through purchase of government bonds.
  • A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expert committee on micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) has recommended doubling the cap on collateral-free loans to Rs 20 lakh from the current Rs 10 lakh.
  • Federal Reserve holds the rate cut, may go for cuts later this year.

Event Watch

International:

  • Japan PPI Services YoY
  • US GDP Annualized QoQ
  • China Industrial Profits YoY
  • UK GDP YoY

Domestic:

  • Crude price
  • INR Price
  • India Fiscal Deficit
  • Monsoon progress

Stocks To Watch

ESCORT & HAVELLS On Upside while LUPIN & TECHM on Downside.

Share Market News 20-June-2019

Sensex zooms 488 points, Nifty above 11,800-level, Jet Airways soars 90%

Indian share market opened lower after mixed closed in yesterdays trade. the Sensex was down 81.12 points or 0.21% at 39031.62, and the Nifty declined by 25.00 points or 0.21% at 11666.50. Among sector, Except energy and metal, all other sectoral indices were trading lower led by the IT, auto, FMCG, and pharma. Investors were waiting for minutes from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of the latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting which is due in later-half of the day.

In the afternoon session, the benchmark indices have erased its morning losses and were trading on the positive note. Sensex was 0.30 percent up at 39,231.63 & Nifty at 11,722.10. On the sectoral front except for IT & FMCG, all other sectors were trading in green led by Pharma, Reality & Energy. The broader market was also following the frontline indices with Small & Midcap up by 0.60 percent.

Indian share market had witnessed a spectacular run in today's trade, with buying emerged across the market. The Sensex rallied 488.89 points or 1.25 percent to 39,601.63 and the Nifty climbed 140.30 points or 1.20 percent to 11,831.80. Among sector, All the eleven sectoral gauges compiled by NSE advanced, led by the Nifty Pharma Indexs 3.06 percent gains. Parrell to benchmark indices the broader market also closed with the gains of more than 1.50 percent. Interestingly, Shares of Jet Airways was the eyecatcher after they soared over 150 percent intraday during the last 10 minutes of the trade. The stock ended 90 percent higher. Additionally, the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group stocks like Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Capital rallied 35 percent and 28 percent respectively.

Throughout the week the market was concerned that the government has not yet provided any hint or relief to the slowing economy. On hearing a series of meetings by Prime Minister and Finance Minister to draw a road map for 100 days agenda and budget, provided confidence to the market. Additionally, the GST council is likely to meet and review its position. Also a relief rally in the global market given the dovish view by Federal Reserve yesterday night supported the domestic market sentiment. The present scenario is more of chaos, Hopefully, the Budget in July will bring out some clear trend in the D-street and help to retrieve the lost confidence among the retail investors.

Top Gainers

YESBANK by 11.43% to Rs 115.00 ,IBULHSGFIN by 8.55% to Rs 603.00, INDUSINDBK by 4.10% to Rs 1,438.00,SUNPHARMA by 3.68% to Rs 389.00, JSWSTEEL by 3.45% to Rs 269.55.

Top Losers

UPL By -8.45% to Rs 870.00, WIPRO by -2.48% to Rs 286.75,ADANIPORTS by -1.34% to Rs 402.25, BRITANNIA by -1.31% to Rs 2,838.00., TECHM by -1.20% to Rs. 726.75..

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

YESBANK is the top gainer in today's market session after A positive commentary from the Yesbank Ceo spooked to share as heavy buying emerged in today's trade.

UPL is the top loser in today's market, after HSBC Research raised concerns on declining soybean demand, pricing pressure from the US-China trade tensions and the African swine fever (ASF).

Key Market News

  • The Reserve Bank has said the expert committee on the MSME sector, set up in January under the chairmanship of former chairman of Sebi UK Sinha has submitted its report to the governor Shaktikanta Das.
  • Federal Reserve holds the rate cut, may go for cuts later this year.
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold Rs 97 crore worth of domestic stocks on Wednesday, DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 105 crore

Stocks To Watch

RELIANCE is on the upside while TECHM is on the downside.

RELIANCE is currently quoting at Rs.1,299.90 up by Rs 22.55 or 1.77% from its previous closing of Rs.1,277.35 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.1,417.50 on 03-MAY-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.940.30 on 28-JUN-2018. the stock has filled the gap that was created on 20-May-2019 & after waiting for 2 trading sessions the stock has given an upward move, confirming the RSI is also placed well at 45. Thus opening the upward target in the coming days.

TECHM is currently quoting at Rs.726.75 down by Rs.-8.85 or -1.20% from its previous closing of Rs.735.60 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 846.50 on 02-MAY-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 612.40 on 26-JUL-2018. On the weekly chart, the stock has made a Double-top and broke the neckline on 22-May-2019 with the rising volume, Indicating the downside.

Share Market News 19-June-2019

Last Hour Recovery Sails Sensex Above 39K, Nifty Slips Below 11,700-mark

US market started on a positive note after Washington kick-started the trade talks with Beijing, boosting sentiment along with growing investor confidence that the Fed will cut interest rates this year. Tracking the same Indian share market started on a strong note. the Sensex grew by 267.07 points or 0.68% at 39,313.41, and the Nifty rose by 81.90 points or 0.70% at 11,773.40. All the sectoral indices were trading higher led by PSU bank, metal, infra, auto, energy, IT and pharma.

The benchmark indices erased the majority of its early gains in the afternoon session. The Sensex & Nifty was trading at 39,198 & 11,721.95. The broader market was underperforming the frontline indices, as some serious selling was visible in mid & Small-cap, down more than 1 percent. Financial & metal sector was trading in green keeping the market higher, while Pharma, auto & media was on the decline. The market was lingering in the favor of the seller.

In the last hour of trade, benchmark indices witnessed a see-saw trade with the rise in volatility. The selling pressure remained through-out the day after a gap up opening. However, the closing of frontline indices was flat to positive with Sensex up by 66.40 points at 39112.74, while Nifty ended flat at 11691.50. Among the sectors, except metal, all other indices ended in the red led by pharma, infra, IT and auto. The aggressive dumping of stock was seen in the broader market, with Mid & Small-cap closed with a decline of 1.07 & 1.83 percent. Going forward, the near-term movement is likely to be driven by monsoon progress as well as global indicators. The recent retaliatory tariff by India could escalate trade war tensions between the U.S. and India. This could further induce volatility into Indian markets.

Top Gainers

TATASTEEL by 5.40% to Rs 497.80 ,ZEEL by 5.14% to Rs 356.80,KOTAKBANK by 2.75% to Rs 1,502.00,NTPC by 1.85% to Rs 134.85, TITAN by 1.34% to Rs 1,274.40.

Top Losers

IBULHSGFIN By -8.49% to Rs 558.00, YESBANK by -4.89% to Rs 103.95,UPL by -4.67% to Rs 953.00, ADANIPORTS by -3.32% to Rs 407.40., INDUSINDBK by -2.70% to Rs. 1,371.00.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

TATASTEEL is the top gainer in today's market session after Global financial firm Goldman Sachs has maintained a buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs 570 per share

IBULHSGFIN is the top loser in today's market, the stock is continuously under selling pressure, the investor is dumping this stock on a daily basis.

Key Market News

  • The Reserve Bank of India said it will infuse Rs 12,500 crore of liquidity into the system through purchase of government bonds.
  • A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expert committee on micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) has recommended doubling the cap on collateral-free loans to Rs 20 lakh from the current Rs 10 lakh.
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought Rs 31.73 crore worth of domestic stocks on Tuesday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 181.03 crore.

Stocks To Watch

HAVELLS is on the upside while LUPIN is on the downside.

HAVELLS is currently quoting at Rs.783.65up by Rs 9.20 or 1.19% from its previous closing of Rs.774.45 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.797.40 on 10-JUN-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.520.10 on 28-JUN-2018.the stock after making the all-time high on 10th Jun had witnessed some profit-booking, However, from the last 2 trading session the stock has seen good buying interest from its support levels,Additionally the HNIs are also taking a keen interest in the company ,While increasing the exposure in there portfolio.

LUPIN is currently quoting at Rs.703.40 down by Rs.-5.60 or -0.79% from its previous closing of Rs.703.40 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 986.10 on 10-SEP-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 697.20 on 19-JUN-2019. The Stock has recently broken its year-long support levels which were was created on March 2018, the downside is open for stock the next move is likely to be up till 620.00.

Share Market News 18-June-2019

Market pauses 4-day falling spell, Jet Airways Sinks 40%

The Indian share market witnessed a positive start with Sensex rising by 114.52 points at 39,075.31, while Nifty started up 33.80 points at 11,706. D-street is expected to remain subdued ahead of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled for the next two days. In the absence of domestic events market is likely to follow global sentiments for a while. Among the sectors, except FMCG all other indices were trading in the green led by metal, pharma, infra, auto, and bank.

After a positive start, the benchmark indices traded flat, within a narrow range during the afternoon session. The weakness was reflected from the heavyweight HDFC twins & reliance. The Sensex & nifty was trading at 39,071.30 & 11,699.45. The broader market was also in-line with the benchmark indices with Mid & small-cap trading with the gains of more than 0.50 percent. Among sector, except FMCG all other sectors were in green led by PSU bank, Media & reality.

The last hour of trading in d-street was highly volatile with frontline indices fluctuating between gains & losses. However, the market turned around and given a positive closing with 85.55 points Sensex gains whereas Nifty grew by 19.30 points at 11,691.50. The broader market continued their downtrend with Mid-cap & Small-cap declined around 0.20 percent. the sectors compiled by NSE advanced, led by the Nifty IT Indexs 0.58 percent gain. On the flipside, the Nifty Pharma Index was the top sectoral loser, down 0.73 percent. The selling was pretty high in certain stock like Jet Airways (down by 40 percent), followed by Reliance Infrastructure, Reliance Capital, Jain Irrigation, Kaveri Seeds, IRB Infrastructure and Arvind.

Top Gainers

VEDL by 2.50% to Rs 168.15 ,BPCL by 2.08% to Rs 386.00,COALINDIA by 2.00% to Rs 260.40,ICICIBANK by 1.98% to Rs 422.40, POWERGRID by 1.88% to Rs 197.70

Top Losers

IBULHSGFIN By -7.35% to Rs 606.60, YESBANK by -5.94% to Rs 109.25,HINDALCO by -1.70% to Rs 190.30, ASIANPAINT by -1.56% to Rs 1,380.10., SUNPHARMA by -1.53% to Rs. 377.05.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

VEDL is the top gainer in today's market session, after positive commentary from the Anil Agarwal, Founder of Vedanta the stock had witnessed a good buying interest.

IBULHSGFIN is the top loser in today's market, the stock is continuously under selling pressure, the investor dumping this stock on a daily basis.

Key Market News

  • RBI may cut rates by another 25 bps in 2019: Fitch Ratings
  • Fitch cuts India growth forecast to 6.6% for FY20
  • Hiring activity records 11% rise in May: Report
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold Rs 331.27 crore worth of domestic stocks on Monday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1,257.86 crore.

Stocks To Watch

DMART is currently quoting at Rs.1,341.25 up by Rs 43.75 or 3.37% from its previous closing of Rs.1,297.20 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.1,698.70 on 19-DEC-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.1,125.75 on 23-OCT-2018.The stock is been consolidating from last 5 months and likely to give an upward breakout in the coming day. After the listing D-Mart had a sharp upward sprint making an all-time high of 1698.70, currently, the share price is hovering at the retracement of 38 percent and from last 5 months which has created a strong base. A close above 1370 with high volume will provide a confirmation of an uptrend as the oscillator are also placed in the sweet spot.

SUNPHARMA is currently quoting at Rs.377.05 down by Rs.-5.85 or -1.53% from its previous closing of Rs.382.90 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 679.30 on 06-SEP-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 344.55 on 13-May-2019. The Stock has a very weak chart and the downside is open, every rise will be an opportunity to sell. On a daily chart the stock is making lower lows, with continuously breaching the 52 weak low on the intraday basis. the 52 week low of 344.55 on 13th May is likely to retest again in the short term. The stock is respecting the 20-DMA the sell on rise strategy can be utilized in this stock.

Share Market News 17-June-2019

Sensex plunges 491 pts to slip below 39,000; Nifty ends at 11,672

Following the global clues coupled with the escalation of India-US trade talks, started the Indian share market on a negative note. Additionally, The investors around the globe seemed cautious ahead of a closely-watched Federal Reserve meeting. the Sensex was down 47.78 points or 0.12% at 39404.29, and the Nifty down 22.90 points or 0.19% at 11800.40. The majority of the decline was led by the Reliance industries which was among the top loser in the early trade. Among the sectors, except infra, all other sectoral indices were trading lower.

In the afternoon session, the Indian share market was trading at day's low dragged by Reliance Industries. On the sectoral front, All the sectors were trading in red led by metal, media & Bank. the Sensex & Nifty was trading at 39,197 & 11,737. The broader market was also trading in pressure down more than a percent.

The Indian share market in the last hour of trade accelerated the pace of decline with benchmark indices closing with a drop of more than 1 percent. the bloodshed leading from metal, pharma & bank spread across all sectors. The selling also followed in the broader market with Mid & Small-cap down more than 1.20 percent. In closing, the Sensex shrink by 491.28 points at 38,960.79, while Nifty declined by 148.40 points at 11,674.90.

D-street is facing headwinds from both domestic and global fronts, citing delay in the arrival of monsoon, lingering geopolitical tension and rebound in crude oil prices. Earlier, it was only the broader indices, which were feeling the pinch today, however, most of the large caps faced the heat and stocks from a wide gamut of sectors was down.

Top Gainers

YESBANK by 0.74% to Rs 115.90 ,ZEEL by 0.36% to Rs 337.70,COALINDIA by 0.14% to Rs 255.50,WIPRO by 0.12% to Rs 299.15.

Top Losers

TATASTEEL By -5.78% to Rs 472.80, JSWSTEEL by -3.78% to Rs 261.00,TATAMOTORS by -3.47% to Rs 158.50, IBULHSGFIN by -3.46% to Rs 649.00., ONGC by -3.25% to Rs. 163.80.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

YESBANK is the top gainer in today's market session, as Private equity investors Blackstone Group, Apax Partners and Warburg Pincus are looking to invest between $500 million and $750 million in Yes Bank, depending on the final valuation.

TATASTEEL is the top loser in today's market, after foreign brokerage, The metal indexs fall could be attributed to the escalating trade war between the US and China. As per media reports, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Sunday that President Donald Trump would raise the issue of Hong Kongs human rights with Chinas President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Japan later this month. Moreover, tensions in the Middle East fueled investors concerns regarding global demand growth with the US blaming Iran for attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman last week.

Key Market News

  • Oil grew on tensions of Middle East tanker attacks.
  • India imposes higher customs duty in 28 US products retaliating the US.
  • Exports up by 3.93% in May; the trade deficit had widened to $15.36 bn.
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold Rs 238.64 crore worth of domestic stocks on Friday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 376.47 crore.

Stocks To Watch

NAUKRI is on the upside while HDFCAMC is on the downside.

NAUKRI is currently quoting at Rs.2,231.00 up by Rs 40.30 or 1.84% from its previous closing of Rs.2,190.70 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.2,443.90 on 03-JUN-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.1,126.15 on 29-JUN-2018. The chart structure is strong the stock should be brought in every dip, after a recnt dip the stock is likely to resume its upward trend.

HDFCAMC is currently quoting at Rs.1928.00 down by Rs.-8.45 or -0.44% from its previous closing of Rs.1,936.45 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 1,970.00 on 27-AUG-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 1,250.00 on 11-OCT-2018. The Stock after the sharp surge in recent days is currently trading near its 52 weeks high, However, the stock had made a Doji on the daily chart with oscillators showing the stock trading in the overbought zone, Incoming day the stock can retrace before continuing its uptrend.

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ABOUT AUTHOR

Niveza Editorial Desk : We are a team of stock market nerds trying to stay ahead of the herd. We spend our grey cells everyday to a pave a smooth road for our clients in the shaky world of stock market. While tracking the mood swings of the market we bring our clients the most rewarding deals.

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