Tide Of Volatility Continues Ahead Of RBI MPC Outcome
Sep 28, 2018 | 15:40 PM IST
Sep 28, 2018 | 15:40 PM IST
Our Analysis
This week market belonged to bears amid broad based selling due to liquidity concern in NBFCs, higher crude oil prices & continuous depreciation of rupee which dragged Nifty below 11K. Indias fiscal deficit also rose however to control RBI is taking numerous steps. Almost all the sectors struggled this week which led to selling in market. Every rise in equity indices is compensated by higher correction currently & it is expected to be like this till the announcement of RBI Monetary Policys outcomes. Midcap & smallcap companies are continued to be clobbered but investors are taking opportunities to accumulate at lower level in quality names. So next week MPC outcome, auto monthly numbers along with rupee movement, crude oil prices will be an event to watch.
This Weeks Market Highlights:
Benchmark Indices:
1. Market started the week on a very negative note as bear took total control, Sensex lost 537 points while Nifty closed below 11K .
2. Deep cuts seen among banks, financials, auto, FMCG, metals, pharma while rupee depreciation boosted IT stocks. The Nifty Midcap index ended 2.77% lower.
3. On Tuesday a strong pullback by bull helped equity market to close higher as Sensex surged 350 points while Nifty reclaimed 11,050.
4. Except realty all sectoral indices closed in green led by banking & financials, auto, FMCG & pharma. The Nifty midcap index closed 17 points higher.
5. On Wednesday after a day of breather market again resumed losses as Sensex fell 110 points & Nifty hold 11,050 ahead of FOMC outcome.
6. On Thursday benchmark indices ended the September series on a negative note as Sensex dipped over 200 points while Nifty below 11K.
7. On Friday market started on a positive note but swinged between green & red.
Broader Index & Global Market:
-This week market totally controlled by bears, so selling was seen in all the indices. Nifty midcap & smallcap indices corrected 6-8% while in sectoral indices banks, financials, auto, FMCG, IT, metal, pharma, realty & media all index corrected over 3-8% due to broad based selling in the market.
-This week US market rose further as US dollar remained higher after Federal Reserve Chairman is confident of the economy. European market also remained higher while other Asian market traded mix due to escalation trade war. Crude Oil prices stabilized over $81/ barrel after OPEC countries said will not increase output. US unemployment rate, crude oil prices & trade war will be an event to watch.
Movers & Shakers
Bharat Electronics has seen huge buying interest this week after the management maintained growth targets for FY19 saying no major impact of new pricing policy on its margin.The state-owned defence company has maintained its 12-15% revenue growth and EBITDA margin growth between 17-19% for next 3 years. Stock surged over 10% this week.
Stock of Indiabulls Housing Finance corrected over 20% this week as concerns over short-term liquidity in the market for commercial papers raised by NBFCs. Further, there is also an uncertainty surrounding the ability of certain NBFCs to raise capital. Many NBFCs wont be able to roll over their short-term positions. If they raise funds at a higher yield and charge a fixed rate from borrowers, it will lead to a compression in their NIMs (Net Interest Margin).
Key Market Drivers
The US Fed. Reserve announced on Wednesday, after a 2-day policy meeting, it would raise interest rates for the third time this year. The decision, which had been widely expected, raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to a range of 2% to 2.25%. It held rates near zero after the Great Recession to speed up the economic recovery. The FOMC removed language in its statement that had characterized its policy as accommodative. Still, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that the Fed did not have a precise estimate of where accommodation ends.
India's fiscal deficit rose further in August, inching closer to the government's budgeted target for the financial year 2018-19. Fiscal deficit, the gap between the governments revenue & expenditure, stood at Rs.5.91 lakh crore at the end of August, according to the data released by the Controller General of Accounts. The gap was 94.7% of the budgeted estimate of Rs.6.24 lakh crore for 2018-19. It stood at 96.1% in August last year.
Event Watch
Indias Monthly Automobile Data will be on 1st October 2018. Also Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI & Services PMI (Sept.) data will be next week.
RBI Monetary Policy outcome will be on 5th October 2018.
Global:- US ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Unemployment rate (Sept.) data will be next week.
Stocks To Watch
GAIL (India) Ltd. is on the upside while Yes Bank Ltd. is on the downside.
Share Market News 27-September-2018
Nifty Logs Worst F&O Series In Seven Months whereas Sensex Dives by 218 points
The Benchmark indices opened flat ahead of F&O expiry, Sensex fell 15 points & Nifty below 11,050. The equity market falls further as Sensex fall 100 points & Nifty below 11,050. Nifty banking & financials, pharma, realty, FMCG & auto dragged market while IT, metal & PSU bank index traded higher. The Nifty midcap index underperformed the market, traded over 1% lower.
In the afternoon session market extended losses, Sensex fall 200 points while Nifty fall below 11K. Selling pressure in banking & financials, auto, pharma & realty dragged market whereas the IT index managed to outperform the market. Among the broader markets, The Nifty Midcap index underperformed the market, traded 1.5% lower.
In the last hour of trade market remained lower as Sensex was down 300 points & Nifty below 11K. Its a negative close for the market in September series. Selling was across sectors, with maximum cuts visible among banks, auto, infra, metals & pharma while IT index closed higher. The nifty Midcap index ended 411 points lower. Sensex closed 218.10 points down at 36,324.17, Nifty down by 76.25 points at 10,977.55.
Top Gainers
Infratel by 3.23% to Rs.269.95, TCS by 2.00% to Rs.2,185, Ultratech Cement by 1.70% to Rs.4,136.50, Asian Paints by 1.09%to Rs.1,296, Infosys by 0.90% to Rs.724.30.
Top Losers
Yes Bank by -9.01% to Rs.203.60, IBULHSGFIN by -5.83% to Rs.941.50, Bajaj Finance by -4.59% to Rs.2,209.35, Bajaj Finserv by -3.82% to Rs.5,975.45, Maruti Suzuki by -3.30% to Rs.7,584.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
Bharti Infratel is the top gainer in today's market as some sort of buying was seen in the stock.
Yes Bank is the top loser in today's market after sources close to developments said that RBI unlikely to approve the extension of MD & CEO Rana Kapoor.
Key Market News
The United States Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday, after a two-day policy meeting, that it would raise interest rates for the third time this year. The widely expected decision of raising rates by 25 basis points came in line with the expectation. Since the year 2015, it was the eighth time when federal Open Market Committee has raised borrowing costs. It maintained its forecast for 3 rate hikes next year even after President Donald Trump last month complained about higher interest rates.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) eased mandatory cash requirement rules for banks on Thursday and assured jittery markets it would provide "durable liquidity" amid growing worries of a potential credit crunch in the economy. Despite repeated attempts by authorities to calm investors, a series of debt defaults by one of the country's largest infrastructure finance companies since last one month has raised fears of wider liquidity problems, hitting Indian stock, bonds, and the rupee.
Stocks To Watch
Himachal Futuristic Communications Ltd. is on the upside while Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd. is on the downside.
HFCL is currently trading at Rs.21.30, up by Rs.1.15 or 5.71% from its previous closing of Rs.20.15 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.20.20 & has touched a high & low of Rs.21.85 and Rs.20.20 respectively. So far 87,03,671 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.2,664.66 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.36.65 on 11-January-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.18.45 on 25-September-2018.
Edelweiss is currently trading at Rs.187.90, down by Rs.24.25 or 11.43% from its previous closing of Rs.212.15 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.213.20 and has touched a high & low of Rs.214.45 and Rs.185.20 respectively. So far 94,92,583 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.17,696.42 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.342.00 on 29-May-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.185.20 on 27-September-2018.
Share Market News 26-September-2018
Sensex, Nifty witness the heat ahead of Fed Policy outcome
The Benchmark indices started on a strong note, Sensex rose 200 points & Nifty surpassed 11,100 mark. The equity market erased all gains as Sensex fell over 100 points while Nifty below 11,050. Financials, particularly PSU banks have dragged the indices along with auto & FMCG names. Nifty IT index was also down over 1%. The Nifty midcap index underperformed the market, traded over 1% lower.
In afternoon session market Sensex fell further nearly by 200 points while Nifty hovered above 11K. Nifty PSU bank, IT, FMCG & auto index fell over 1% while metal, pharma & realty supported the market. Among the broader markets, the Nifty Midcap index outperformed the market, traded 23 points higher.
In the last hour of trade market remained lower, Sensex rose 140 points & Nifty still below 11,050. The market closed lower ahead of Fed Policy outcome. Major selling was seen among IT, FMCG, PSU bank & auto while realty, metal & pharma capped losses. The Nifty midcap index closed on a positive note, rose 56 points. Sensex closed 109.79 points down at 36,542.27, Nifty down by 13.65 points at 11,053.80.
Top Gainers
IBULHSGFIN by 6.81% to Rs.993.00, UPL by 6.13% to Rs.701.45, VEDL by 4.84% to Rs.241.55, Titan by 2.53%to Rs.817.00, Hindalco by 1.95% to Rs.247.80.
Top Losers
Tata Motors by -3.09% to Rs.233.35, SBIN by -2.92% to Rs.263.00, Infratel by -2.77% to Rs.261.90, ITC by -2.67% to Rs.293.10, Wipro by -2.57% to Rs.319.85.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
Indiabulls Housing Finance is the top gainer in today's market as strong buying was seen in the stock after steep correction in last three trading session.
Tata Motors is the top loser in today's market after German automaker BMW lowered its full-year revenue as well as profit guidance, which earn major revenue from global business.
Key Market News
Indias fiscal deficit rose further in August, inching closer to the govt.s budgeted target for the financial year 2018-19. However, it remained lower than what it was during the same month last year. Fiscal deficit, the gap between the govts revenue & expenditure, stood at Rs.5.91 lakh cr. at the end of August, according to the data released by the Controller General of Accounts. The gap was 94.7% of the budgeted estimate of Rs.6.24 lakh cr. for 2018-19. It stood at 96.1% in August last year. The total expenditure for the April-August period rose to Rs.10.70 lakh crore or 43.8% of the full-year target. Revenue receipts stood at 26.9% of the target at Rs.4.64 lakh crore.
As per Central Statistics Office report, employment generation has been increased in the month of July by nearly 14 lakh thereby taking the tally of new subscribers to Employees' State Insurance Corporation to 1.34 crore since September 2017. This is the highest in any month since September 2017.
Stocks To Watch
Bharat Electronics Ltd. is on the upside while KPIT Technologies Ltd. is on the downside.
BEL is currently trading at Rs.84.40, up by Rs.8.20 or 10.76% from its previous closing of Rs.76.20 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.78.70 & has touched a high & low of Rs.86.30 and Rs.78.25 respectively. So far 4,73,34,109 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.20,516.11 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.193.40 on 29-November-2017 & a 52 week low of Rs.74.25 on 25-September-2018.
KPIT is currently trading at Rs.247.50, down by Rs.20.10 or 7.51% from its previous closing of Rs.267.60 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.268.45 and has touched a high & low of Rs.269.05 and Rs.222.65 respectively. So far 1,50,24,710 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.4,880.19 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.314.50 on 07-September-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.114.15 on 25-September-2017.
Share Market News 25-September-2018
Happy Ending of Choppy Trades day, Nifty Reclaimed 11K
The Benchmark indices started on a negative note, Sensex fell 60 points & Nifty below 10,950. The equity market reversed losses & traded higher as Sensex rose 180 points while Nifty reclaimed 11K. Nifty banks & financials, pharma, FMCG & IT pushed market higher while realty & metal index traded lower. The Nifty midcap index underperformed market, traded 25 points lower.
In afternoon session market turned volatile as Sensex up 50 points while Nifty struggled below 11K. Cut has been witnessed in banks, financials, metal & OMCs weighed market while pharma, IT & FMCG continued to trade higher. Among the broader markets, the Nifty Midcap index was down 1.10%.
In last hour of trade market regained strength as Sensex rose 260 points & Nifty back above 11K. A strong comeback by bulls helped market close higher. Except realty all sectoral indices closed in green led by banking & financials, auto, FMCG & pharma, surged 1-2.5%. The Nifty midcap index closed 17 points higher. Sensex closed 347.04 points up at 36,652.06, Nifty up by 100.05 points at 11,074.95.
Top Gainers
Kotak Bank by 3.26% to Rs.1,186.10, HDFC by 3.18% to Rs.1,773.35, SBIN by 3.08% to Rs.272.50, HUL by 2.99%to Rs.1,638, Lupin by 2.95% to Rs.886.15.
Top Losers
IBULHSGFIN by -5.60% to Rs.927.00, Infratel by -2.83% to Rs.270.00, GAIL by -2.61% to Rs.370.95, Yes Bank by -2.61% to Rs.220.50, Power Grid by -2.53% to Rs.192.60.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
Kotak Mahindra Bank is the top gainer in today's market as strong recovery was seen in the stock after steep correction in last five session.
Indiabulls Housing Finance is the top loser in today's market as selling pressure continued to be seen in the stock due to fear of a financial crunch in the sector.
Key Market News
The Federal Reserve appears ready to hike interest rates Wednesday for the third time this year, as the central bank responds to rising inflation and robust hiring by U.S. employers. As the Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting Tuesday, investors widely expect policymakers to set in motion another increase to short-term interest rates. Investors and economists will also be watching Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, comments during a Wednesday afternoon press conference, which will offer a better picture of officials plans heading into 2019 and potential concerns over the economic impact of new import tariffs.
Oil prices rose above $82 a barrel to hit fresh four-year high on Monday after global producers decided against demands from Donald Trump for action to cool prices a further output increase .Saudi Arabia, Russia & their allies inside and outside the Opec cartel declined to announce additional increases to production beyond agreed in June during meetings in Algeria at the weekend. US sanctions on Irans energy sector are due to come into effect in November, but they are already beginning to hit the countrys oil exports as buyers reduce purchases of Iranian barrels for fear of financial penalties.
Stocks To Watch
Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd. is on the upside while Jet Airways (India) Ltd. is on the downside.
Balrampur Chini is currently trading at Rs.82.85, up by Rs.5.95 or 7.74% from its previous closing of Rs.76.90 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.77.95 & has touched a high & low of Rs.83.00 and Rs.77.25 respectively. So far 2,22,79,338 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.1,879.97 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.179.45 on 01-November-2017 & a 52 week low of Rs.58.70 on 16-May-2018.
Jet Airways is currently trading at Rs.191.75, down by Rs.21.95 or 10.27% from its previous closing of Rs.213.70 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.207.65 and has touched a high & low of Rs.211.70 and Rs.188.50 respectively. So far 90,09,366 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.2,187.32 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.883.45 on 05-January-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.188.50 on 25-September-2018.
Share Market News 24-September-2018
Market Post Worst 5-Day Decline In Over 7-Months, Nifty Gives up 11000 Mark
The Benchmark indices started on a weak note, Sensex dropped 100 points & Nifty below 11,100. Further equity market extended losses where Sensex dipped 300 points while Nifty near 11000 level. Except IT index all other sectoral indices traded under pressure led by banking & financials, auto, realty & pharma, fall 1-5%. Nifty midcap index underperformed market, traded 420 points lower.
In afternoon session market witnessed carnage as Sensex fell over 500 points and Nifty fall below 11000. Automobiles, banking & financials, metals, pharma, and FMCG are all trading lower while a weak rupee has boosted IT stocks. Among the broader markets, the Nifty Midcap index was down 2.5%.
In last hour of trade market remained under selling pressure as Sensex was down 400 points while Nifty above 11000. Its a day that completely belonged to bears to close at lowest point. There was selling across majority of sectors, with deep cuts seen among banks, financials, auto, FMCG, metals, pharma & realty while rupee depreciation boosted IT stocks. The Nifty Midcap index ended 2.77% lower. Sensex closed 536.58 points down at 36,305.02, Nifty down by 168.20 points at 10,974.90.
Top Gainers
TCS by 4.99% to Rs.2,208, Coal India by 2.31% to Rs.281.60, INFY by 2.08% to Rs.719.95, Tech Mahindra by 1.43%to Rs.748.60, RIL by 1.40% to Rs.1,234.55.
Top Losers
IBULHSGFIN by -7.26% to Rs.985.00, Eicher Motors by -6.94% to Rs.26,000, M&M by -6.45% to Rs.898.00, HDFC by -6.27% to Rs.1,724, Bajaj Finance by -6.07% to Rs.2,235.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
TCS is the top gainer in today's market as rupee resumed its depreciation after 2-days of recovery. Rupee depreciation helps IT companies to generate high as they deal in dollars
Indiabulls Housing Finance is the top loser in today's market as strong selling was seen in the stock on the back of fall in liquidity in NBFCs which triggered market selloff despite management clarification on Friday.
Key Market News
Brent crude climbed above $80 a barrel after OPEC and its allies signaled less urgency to boost output despite U.S. pressure to temper prices. Futures in London rose as much as 1.7%. OPEC and its partners gave a tepid response to President Donald Trumps demand that rapid action be taken to reduce prices, saying they would boost output only if customers wanted more cargoes. Brent could rise to $100 for the first time since 2014 as the market braces for the loss of Iranian supplies due to U.S. sanctions, according to Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. and Trafigura Group.
The United States and China imposed fresh tariffs on each other's goods on Monday, as the world's biggest economies showed no signs of backing down from an increasing bitter trade dispute that has rattled financial markets. US tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and retaliatory tariffs by Beijing on $60 billion worth of US products took effect as of 0401 GMT. The two countries have already slapped tariffs on $50 billion worth of each other's goods earlier this year.
Stocks To Watch
Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd. is on the upside while Central Bank of India Ltd. is on the downside.
DHFL is currently trading at Rs.392.15, up by Rs.41.60 or 11.87% from its previous closing of Rs.350.55 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.385.60 & has touched a high & low of Rs.438.15 and Rs.371.65 respectively. So far 7,92,86,363 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.12,332.28 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.691.50 on 03-September-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.274.75 on 21-September-2018.
Central Bank is currently trading at Rs.44.30, down by Rs.8.90 or 16.73% from its previous closing of Rs.53.20 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.42.60 and has touched a high & low of Rs.49.50 and Rs.42.60 respectively. So far 1,20,52,424 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.11,532.98 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.94.00 on 17-November-2017 & a 52 week low of Rs.42.60 on 24-September-2018.
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