Lower Crude Oil Prices Set The Right Tone For The Market
Jun 01, 2018 | 17:50 PM IST
Jun 01, 2018 | 17:50 PM IST
Our Analysis
This week market regained the strength as Nifty bounceback above 10,700 from 10,500 on account of strong buying in bank, NBFCs, OMCs and Auto stocks. This week, the market reacted on strong rupee & lower crude oil prices. Also, better than expected GDP data, Infrastructure output & better manufacturing data helped the market to rise. In other news, RBI MPC meeting will be a big event to watch as higher crude oil prices may spoil inflation route, where hawkish commentary can be possible. On the global front, the market will certainly react on crude oil prices along with trade tariff war concern & the political turmoil in Italy.
This Weeks Market Highlights:
Benchmark Indices:
1. The benchmark indices started on a positive note as Sensex rallied 250 points while Nifty closed near 10,700 due to a sharp correction in oil prices.
2. All sectoral indices closed in green baring IT that fell 1.92% while pharma & PSU bank rose over 2%. Nifty midcap outperformed frontliners, rose 264 points.
3. On Tuesday, the market snapped the 3-day rally as Sensex fell over 200 points while Nifty slipped below 10,650 on weak rupee.
4. On Wednesday, equity indices closed lower for the 2nd straight day as Sensex fell 43 points while Nifty managed to stay above 10,600.
5. Almost all sectoral indices traded under pressure baring PSU bank. Pharma fell the most, was down over 1%. Nifty midcap fell 10 points.
6. On Thursday, the market ended the F&O expiry day on a high note as Sensex rallied over 400 points while Nifty closed above 10,700 led by the rally in HDFC bank.
7. On Friday, the market closed lower despite better than expected GDP. data.
Sectoral Index:
- This week midcap & smallcap index remained mix as in first 3-days it outperformed the market but in the last 2-day underperformed the market as investors took the opportunity to book some profit at a higher level. On sectoral indices, bank and NBFCs remained the preference for buying while pharma, realty & metal witnessed strong profit booking.
- Global markets remained cautious due to fear of tariff war & Italys EU issue. Though lower crude oil prices helped market somewhat other factors didnt support the investors' sentiment.
Movers & Shakers
State-run power equipment maker BHEL has reported more than double growth in March quarter profit at Rs.457.2 crore against Rs.215.5 crore last fiscal, driven by strong operational income. Revenue from operations during the quarter grew by 3.7% to Rs.10,144 crore compared to Rs.9,779.5 crore in corresponding period last year. BHEL said the order book stood at Rs.1.18 lakh crore at the end of March 2018, the highest in last five years. Shares of the company rallied over 15% this week.
Road developer Dilip Buildcon share price plunged 20% this week as March quarter profit missed analyst estimates. Profit for the quarter increased 11% YoY to Rs.217.4 crore but was lower than Nomura estimates of Rs.292 crore due to exceptional loss and higher tax expenses. Also, there were unconfirmed rumours in the market relating to the resignation of the statutory auditors of the company but companies declined any such news.
Key Market Drivers
Indias economy expanded at its fastest pace since demonetisation as government spending continues to drive the recovery. GDP rose at 7.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017-18 compared with 6.1% in the same period last year, and a revised 7% in the quarter ended December, according to data released by the CSO today. A Bloomberg poll of economists had pegged the growth at 7.4%.
Indias infrastructure industries grew 4.7% in April led by increased output of coal, natural gas and cement. Core sector industries grew 4.4% in March and 2.6% in April last year. Official data released by the commerce and industry ministry on Thursday showed a cumulative growth of 4.3% in the core sector in 2017-18 compared with 4.8% in FY17.
Event Watch
RBI Monetary Policy Committee's 3-Day meeting is scheduled from 4th June to 6th June. The decision on interest rate will be on 06th June 2018.
Global:- U.S. Market Composite PMI & Services PMI (May) will be on 05th June 2018. GBP Industrial Production for April (MoM & YoY) & Manufacturing Production for April (MoM & YoY) will be on 8th June 2018.
Stocks To Watch
Bajaj Auto is on the upside while ONGC is on the downside.
Share Market News 31-May-2018
Sensex Surged 413 Points, Nifty Above 10,700 Ahead Of GDP Data
The Benchmark indices started the expiry day on a strong note as Sensex rose 140 points & Nifty above 10,650, amid positive global cues. The equity market traded higher ahead of F&O expiry as Sensex gained 120 points while Nifty hovered around 10,650. OMCs, banking & financials led the rally while pharma, metal & PSU bank traded in the red. Nifty midcap also traded lower.
In the afternoon session, the market extended gains as Sensex rallied 200 points while Nifty continued to trade above 10,650. OMCs, Nifty Bank, Financial & IT indices traded at near day's high while Auto, Metal & Pharma traded under pressure. Nifty midcap underperformed frontliners, were down half a per cent.
In the last hour of trade, the market extended gains as Sensex surged over 400 points while Nifty traded above 10,700. The market closed sharply higher amid positive global cues & rally in HDFC Bank led the market higher. Banking & Financial index rose over 2% followed by IT while Pharma & realty traded under pressure. Sensex closed 416.27 points up at 35,322.38, Nifty up by 121.80 points at 10,736.15.
Top Gainers
Adani Ports by 5.10% to Rs.393.50, HDFC Bank by 4.65% to Rs.2,130, IndusInd Bank by 4.02% to Rs.1,960.60, Tech Mahindra by 3.16% to Rs.709.00, M&M by 2.90% to Rs.924.00.
Top Losers
Sun Pharma by -2.47% to Rs.482.35, Tata Motors by -1.99% to Rs.283.15, Dr. Reddy by -1.73% to Rs.1,927.85, Hero Motocorp by -1.43% to Rs.3,550, Hindalco by -1.32% to Rs.234.95.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
Adani Ports is the top gainer in today's market as strong buying was seen in the stock after a multiple block deals.
Sun Pharma is the top loser in today's market as some selling pressure was seen in the stock as most of the brokerage firms cut the target price despite strong Q4 result due to valuations & execution risk related to product business as the main reason.
Key Market News
Tax reforms are likely to expand revenue base in fast-growing economies like India but they will be most effective when accompanied by lowering of fiscal deficit and effective management of expenditure, Moody's Investors Service said today
It said most sovereigns have embarked on tax administration and compliance reforms, especially through the centralisation of multiple agencies and increased use of technology.Tax reforms are most likely to expand revenue bases in fast-growing economies with strengthening expenditure and debt management. These include the Philippines, India, Indonesia and Thailand, it said.
Stocks To Watch
City Union Bank Ltd. is on the upside while CG Power & Industrial Solutions Ltd. is on the downside.
Torrent Power is currently trading at Rs.196.15, up by Rs.12.95 or 7.07% from its previous closing of Rs.183.20 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.183.55 & has touched a high & low of Rs.203.35 and Rs.183.55 respectively. So far 51,59,761 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.13,071.90 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.203.35 on 31-May-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.147.00 on 28-September-2017.
CG Power is currently trading at Rs.60.55, down by Rs.16.25 or 21.16% from its previous closing of Rs.76.80 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.76.05 & has touched a high and low of Rs.76.45 & Rs.60.50 respectively. So far 2,16,26,153 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.3,967.63 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.99.15 on 12-January-2018 and a 52 week low of Rs.60.50 on 31-May-2018.
Share Market News 30-May-2018
The Market Extend Losses Amid Weak global Cues; Nifty Holds 10,600
The Benchmark indices extended yesterdays losses as Sensex dropped 150 points & Nifty below 10,600 amid political turmoil in Italy. The equity market continued to trade lower as Sensex declined 140 points while Nifty below 10,600. All sectoral indices traded in red led by banking & financial stocks. Nifty midcap also traded lower but outperformed frontliners.
In the afternoon session, the market erased all losses & traded flat as Sensex was down 20 points while Nifty traded above 10,600 as rupee recovered. All sectoral indices traded in red barring PSU bank. Nifty midcap also traded flat.
In the last hour of trade, the market remained under pressure as Sensex fell 70 points while Nifty held above 10,600. The market closed lower for the 2nd consecutive session. Almost all sectoral indices traded in red baring PSU bank. Pharma fell the most, was down over 1%. Nifty midcap fell 10 points. Sensex closed 43.13 points down at 34,906.11, Nifty down by 18.95 points at 10,614.35.
Top Gainers
M&M by 2.79% to Rs.894.50, Bajaj Finance by 2.55% to Rs.2,130, Coal India by 2.27% to Rs.288.75, Yes Bank by 1.73% to Rs.343.90, Bajaj Finserv by 1.45% to Rs.5,973.
Top Losers
HindPetro by -2.78% to Rs.306.30, Hindalco by -1.98% to Rs.237.70, Grasim by -1.95% to Rs.1,037.15, Tata Motors by -1.93% to Rs.288.95, ICICI Bank by -1.69% to Rs.285.00.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
Mahindra & Mahindra is the top gainer in today's market as investors cheered quarterly number. The company is eyeing 13% volume growth with upcoming 3 new UVs. The company has also embarked with Rs.15,000 crore in for development of new models. Also, many brokerage firms initiated buy coverage in the stock.
HindPetro is the top loser in today's market as crude oil prices in the global market remain lower which can hurt margin of the company. Also, domestic diesel & petrol prices cut today after a rise for 16 days.
Key Market News
Rating agency Moodys on Wednesday said that it has cut Indias GDP growth forecast for the current year 2018 from 7.5% to 7.3%, as higher oil prices likely to weigh-in on countrys economic recovery pace. Moodys also showed concern over governments tight fiscal condition. The rating agency retained the GDP growth forecast for the current year 2019 at 7.5%. The US-based agency had upped Indias rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and changed its rating outlook to stable from positive, saying the reforms would help stabilise rising levels of debt.
The possibility of fresh general election and Eurosceptic political parties strengthen their vote share has raised concerns about stability in the Eurozone. The markets reacted to the ongoing political instability in the worlds eighth largest economy by nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP). On March 4, Italians voted in the general election. Voters elected 630 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 315 elective members of the Senate of the Republic.
Stocks To Watch
Bodal Chemicals Ltd. is on the upside while Dilip Buildcon Ltd. is on the downside.
Bodal Chemicals is currently trading at Rs.148.90, up by Rs.14.10 or 10.46% from its previous closing of Rs.134.80 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.133.00 & has touched a high & low of Rs.151.65 and Rs.133.00 respectively. So far 32,28,461 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.1,832.22 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.193.75 on 13-July-2017 & a 52 week low of Rs.109.85 on 26-March-2018.
Dilip Buildcon is currently trading at Rs.930.00, down by Rs.124.50 or 11.81% from its previous closing of Rs.1,054.50 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.1,025 & has touched a high and low of Rs.1,029.90 & Rs.899.00 respectively. So far 47,65,564 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.12,549.99 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.1,247.50 on 15-May-2018 and a 52 week low of Rs.405.95 on 27-June-2017.
Share Market News 29-May-2018
Sensex, Nifty Halt 3-Day Winning Streak, Dragged By Banks
The Benchmark indices opened mildly lower due to profit booking as Sensex was down 55 points & Nifty hold 10,650. The equity market continued to consolidate as Sensex rose 40 points while Nifty above 10,700, amid 3-days rally. Banking and financials, Pharma & realty stocks remained under pressure while Auto & IT stocks supported market. Nifty midcap traded higher by 0.35%.
In afternoon session market remained under pressure as Sensex declined 120 points while Nifty below 10,700 as rupee extended depreciation. Nifty bank index dragged market, fell 1% & PSU bank fell over 2% while Auto & IT capped losses. Nifty midcap also fell 60 points.
In last hour of trade market extended losses as Sensex fell 200 points while Nifty below 10,650 levels. The market snapped 3-day upside rally dented by weak global cues & sharp fall in rupee. Banking & financials remained major loser followed by Pharma & Realty while IT & Auto capped losses. Nifty midcap index also fell 66.50 points on weak market breadth. Sensex closed 216.24 points down at 34,949.24, Nifty down by 55.35 points at 10,633.30.
Top Gainers
M&M by 2.94% to Rs.874.95, GAIL by 2.14% to Rs.343.60, HCL Tech by 1.62% to Rs.909.00, Bharti Airtel by 1.59% to Rs.381.10, IOC by 1.09% to Rs.172.30.
Top Losers
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
Mahindra & Mahindra is the top gainer in today's market as March earnings beat analyst expectations as profit grew by 50% year-on-year to Rs.1,155 crore and revenue increased 25.6% to Rs.13,189 crore during the quarter. EBITDA shot up 70.4% to Rs.1,995 crore and margin expanded 400 bps to 15.1%.
ICICI Bank is the top loser in today's market as profit booking was seen in the stock due to market volatility.
Key Market News
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the repo rate at 6 percent in the ensuing policy review meeting next week, however, there is also a probability of a pre-emptive hike by 25 bps, says a UBS report. According to the global financial services major, the June policy review meeting is likely to be a close call, while the tone of the policy statement is expected to remain hawkish. In its monetary policy review, scheduled for 4-6 June, we expect the MPC to maintain the repo rate at 6% UBS Investment Bank said in a research note.
India faces a copper supply shock after a state government ordered billionaire Anil Agarwal Vedanta Ltd. to shutdown a plant permanently following deadly protests in a move that will slash nationwide output and stroke demand for imports. The Tamil Nadu government directed the southern states pollution control board to seal the 400,000 metric-ton-per-year smelter in Tuticorin in the interests of the people, it said on Monday.
Stocks To Watch
Uflex Ltd. is on the upside while Bank of India is on the downside.
Uflex is currently trading at Rs.316.00, up by Rs.29.80 or 10.41% from its previous closing of Rs.286.20 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.288.00 & has touched a high & low of Rs.335.00 and Rs.287.50 respectively. So far 22,72,313 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.2,285.85 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.506.90 on 66-December-2017 & a 52 week low of Rs.265.00 on 25-May-2017.
Bank of India is currently trading at Rs.101.10, down by Rs.6.65 or 6.17% from its previous closing of Rs.107.75 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.106.00 & has touched a high and low of Rs.106.00 & Rs.101.10 respectively. So far 1,86,36,555 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.17,708.66 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.217.80 on 17-November-2017 and a 52 week low of Rs.91.35 on 12-March-2018.
Share Market News 28-May-2018
Market Rose For 3rd Straight Day, Nifty Near 10,700, OMCs Rally
The Benchmark indices started on a positive note with Sensex was up 100 points & Nifty tad below 10,650, amid sharp correction oil prices & recovery in rupee. The equity market continued to trade strong as Sensex rose over 150 points while Nifty above 10,650. The broader markets outperformed frontliners as Nifty midcap index rose over 1% while all sectoral indices remained in the green barring IT that lost 2% led by Pharma which rose over 2%.
In afternoon session market continued to trade near days high as Sensex surged 250 points while Nifty reclaimed 10,700 on strong support from banks, FMCG, infra, pharma & oil while Nifty IT remain only loser fell 2%. Broader market continued to outperform frontliners as Nifty midcap rose over 1%.
In last hour of trade market traded at days high as Sensex surged nearly 300 points while Nifty traded above 10,700. The market closed higher for third consecutive session, amid sharp correction in oil prices. All sectoral indices closed in green baring IT that fell 1.92% while pharma & PSU bank rose over 2%. Nifty midcap outperformed frontliners rose 264 points. Sensex closed 240.61 points up at 35,165.48, Nifty up by 83.50 points at 10,688.65.
Top Gainers
Sun Pharma by 6.55% to Rs.497.00, HindPetro by 6.18% to Rs.313.45, BPCL by 5.44% to Rs.401.25, GAIL by 5.37% to Rs.336.30, Lupin by 4.95% to Rs.782.50.
Top Losers
Tech Mahindra by -3.81% to Rs.676.00, Power Grid by -2.43% to Rs.206.90, TCS by -2.07% to Rs.3,499.35, HCL Tech by -2.07% to Rs.897.00, Hindalco by -1.63% to Rs.241.50.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
Sun Pharma is the top gainer in today's market after company reported 7% yoy increase in net profit to Rs.1,310 in March quarter, higher than the Rs.895 crore profit projected by analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
Tech Mahindra is the top loser in today's market despite company Q4 profit doubled to Rs.1,222 crore beating analysts average estimate of Rs.934 crore, according to Reuters. Appreciation of rupee against dollar show selling pressure in IT stocks.
Key Market News
Crude oil prices have been falling after hitting $80.50 a barrel (on May 17, 2018), the highest level since November 2014. The correction in oil prices was on signs that output from the three top crude producers, Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia, would climb to meet concerns about supply amid strong demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as well as top producer but non-OPEC member Russia, started withholding supplies in 2017 to tighten the market and prop up prices, which in 2016 fell to a more than a decade low of under $30 per barrel.
President Donald Trump appeared to confirm that his summit with Kim Jong Un was back on, three days after he abruptly called off the historic meeting in an sharply worded letter to the North Korean leader. The State Department earlier confirmed reports that a U.S. delegation is meeting with North Korean officials to prepare for the summit, which had been set for Singapore on June 12.
Stocks To Watch
Just Dial Ltd. is on the upside while PC Jeweller Ltd. is on the downside.
Just Dial is currently trading at Rs.611.80, up by Rs.104.15 or 20.52% from its previous closing of Rs.507.65 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.504.00 & has touched a high & low of Rs.623.40 and Rs.503.75 respectively. So far 2,73,37,841 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.4,240.63 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.647.00 on 16-January-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.327.55 on 11-August-2017.
PC Jeweller is currently trading at Rs.178.25, down by Rs.14.25 or 7.40% from its previous closing of Rs.192.50 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.198.00 & has touched a high and low of Rs.198.00 & Rs.174.00 respectively. So far 2,59,23,522 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.7,043.18 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.600.65 on 16-January-2018 and a 52 week low of Rs.94.55 on 03-May-2018.
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