The Spoilsport Comes To An End With Dramatic Rupee Recovery
Sep 14, 2018 | 14:19 PM IST
Sep 14, 2018 | 14:19 PM IST
Our Analysis
This week market felt the selling pressure due to selling in global market, fall of rupee to all time low & higher crude oil prices. Almost all sectoral indices were under pressure but recovered in last two trading session on the back of rally in Emerging markets. Italys Lira rallied and recovery in domestic currency on the back of better CPI pushed market. Stock specific buying continued especially in exporters. In the lack of domestic trigger, market is expected to react as per the global market movements. Nifty is expected to remain range bound between 11,300 to 11,600. Indias forex reserve, movement of rupee, crude oil prices along with tariff trade progress will be an event to watch.
This Weeks Market Highlights:
Benchmark Indices:
1. The Weakness in rupee weighed benchmark indices to close at lower levels, Sensex dipped 468 points & Nifty fall below 11,450.
2. Nifty auto, banks, financials, FMCG, pharma & metals closed lower while IT index closed flat. The Nifty midcap index underperformed and closed 338 points lower.
3. On Tuesday bloodbath continued on the D-Street, Sensex tumbled over 500 points while Nifty closed below 11,300.
4. The all-round selling was seen among sectors such as banks, automobiles, FMCG, metals, pharmaceuticals and IT too. The Nifty Midcap index fell over 1%.
5. On Wednesday dramatic recovery in rupee helped equity market to close higher, Sensex surged 305 points while Nifty back above 11,350.
6. Sharp buying among major sector such as banks, FMCG, infra, metals & pharma led the market rally. The Nifty Midcap index rose over one-third of a percent.
7. On Friday market started on a strong note with the strong recovery in rupee & fall in crude oil prices.
Broader Index & Global Market::
Broader market underperformed benchmark indices as rupee recorded its all time low & surge in crude oil prices. On the sectoral space all indices felt the heat due to intense selling but able to gain some strength in last two trading session due to recovery in rupee & lowered crude oil prices.
Global market also felt the pressure of US President Trumps further imposition of tariff on Chinese goods, especially Asian market. U.S. market though continued to trade at record highs backed by IT & energy stocks. European market also traded lower this week due to hard Brexit expectation. Crude oil prices, Emerging Market move, Liras (Italian Currency's) movement, OPEC meet will be a event to watch in the upcoming week.
Movers & Shakers
Shares of sugar company Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd. surged over 40% this week after the government approved an over 25% hike in the price of ethanol produced directly from sugarcane juice for blending in petrol. The move would help sugar mills to quickly release arrears of cane farmers, which stands at over Rs.13,000 crore.
Shares of Astec Lifesciences fall over 10% this week as its parent company Godrej Agrovet has informed BSE that its Board of Directors will meet on September 14, 2018, to consider & approve Scheme of Amalgamation of Astec LifeSciences (a subsidiary of the company) with the co. & also to discuss on business strategies.
Key Market Drivers
Indias retail inflation fell to 3.69% in August, lowest in 10 months driven by cheaper food items, according to official data released on Wednesday. Retail inflation, measured by CPI, hit a nine month low at 4.17% in July & came in at 3.28% in August last year.
Indias industrial production growth fell to 6.6% in July as compared to a revised 6.9% in June, as per data released by statistics office. It had expanded 1% in July last year. The June IIP figure has been revised from 7% earlier.
India's exports grew by 19.21% to $27.84 billion in August on account of the healthy performance by petroleum sector. "Export trade during August 2018 recorded at $27.84 billion a positive growth of 19.21%. Exports excluding Petroleum also reported a positive growth of 17.43%," Commerce & Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu mentioned in a tweet.
Event Watch
Indias Forex Reserve (USD) data will be released on 21st Sept. 2018.
Global:- U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Markit Composite PMI and Services PMI (September), OPEC meeting will be held in the next week. GBP. CPI, Core CPI, PPI data will also be presented next week.
Stocks To Watch
Vedanta Ltd. is on the upside while Ashoka Buildcon Ltd. is on the downside.
Share Market News 12-September-2018
The day after Bloodbath, With the sharp recovery in Rupee, Sensex, Nifty Rebounds.
The Benchmark indices started on a flat note, Sensex rose 35 points & Nifty below 11,300. The equity market continued to trade higher as Sensex rose 80 points while Nifty above 11,300 ahead of IIP & CPI data. Buying in FMCG, IT & pharma pushed the market higher while banks, realty, media & auto capped gains. The Nifty midcap index underperformed the market and traded 0.66% lower.
In afternoon session market traded flat to higher as Sensex was up 30 points while Nifty below 11,300. Nifty FMCG, IT, pharma & metal remained strong while banking & financials, auto, realty & media continued to cap gains. The nifty midcap index continued to underperform the market, traded 90 points lower.
In the last hour of trade market recovery in rupee helped market higher as Sensex rose 280 points while Nifty above 11,350. A dramatic recovery in rupee helped market surge to the high points. Sharp buying among major sector such as banks, FMCG, infra, metals & pharma led to the market rally. The Nifty Midcap index rose over one-third of a percent. Sensex closed 304.83 points up at 37,717.96, Nifty up by 82.40 points at 11,369.90.
Top Gainers
Power Grid by 3.53% to Rs.193.50, Sun Pharma by 3.04% to Rs.649.55, Adani Ports by 3.00% to Rs.375.60, ITC by 2.99%to Rs.306.10, Hindalco by 2.94% to Rs.238.40.
Top Losers
Axis Bank by -2.18% to Rs.636.00, Tata Motors by -2.08% to Rs.261.75, HPCL by -1.52% to Rs.240.00, ICICI Bank by -1.09% to Rs.323.00, IOC by -1.03% to Rs.149.15.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
Power Grid is the top gainer in today's market with the strong buying after the recent correction.
Axis Bank is the top loser in today's market owing to intense selling pressure.
Key Market News
India's exports grew by 19.21% to $27.84 billion in August on account of the healthy performance by sectors such as petroleum. "Export trade during August 2018 recorded at $27.84 billion a positive growth of 19.21%. Exports excluding Petroleum also reported a positive growth of 17.43%," Commerce and Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu mentioned in a tweet. Merchandise imports too rose by 25.41% in August to $45.24 billion due to the rising crude oil prices, leaving a trade deficit of $17.4 billion. In July, trade deficit soared to a nearly five-year high of $18.02 billion. During April-August this fiscal, the exports recorded a growth of 16.13%, while the imports during the first five months of this fiscal grew by 17.34%.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday after a report of falling crude inventories and the looming sanctions against Iran fuelled expectations of a tightening market. Prices were also pushed up by Hurricane Florence, which is expected to make landfall on the US East Coast on Friday, and which has caused fuel shortages following the evacuation of millions of households and businesses. US WTI crude futures were at $69.81 per barrel at 0047 GMT, up 56 cents, or 0.8%, from their last settlement. Brent crude futures climbed 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $79.30 a barrel.
Stocks To Watch
Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd. is on the upside while Reliance Capital Ltd. is on the downside.
Dhampur Sugar is currently trading at Rs.97.65, up by Rs.8.65 or 9.72% from its previous closing of Rs.89.00 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.89.45 & has touched a high & low of Rs.99.25 and Rs.88.75 respectively. So far 23,11,619 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.648.61 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.330.50 on 01-November-2017 & a 52 week low of Rs.71.70 on 23-July-2018.
Reliance Capital is currently trading at Rs.414.20, down by Rs.25.55 or 5.81% from its previous closing of Rs.439.75 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.440.00 & has touched a high & low of Rs.440.00 and Rs.410.30 respectively. So far 90,66,759 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.10,510.16 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.782.00 on 11-September-2017 & a 52 week low of Rs.334.30 on 16-July-2018.
Share Market News 11-September-2018
Bloodbath In the markets, Sensex Fall 509 Points, Nifty Gives Up 11,300
The Benchmark indices started on a green note, Sensex rose 100 points & Nifty
above 11,450. The equity market erased morning gains & traded lower as Sensex fell 60 points while Nifty below 11,450 as rupee regained some strength. Nifty banks, auto, metal supported market while FMCG, financials & realty dragged market to lower level. The Nifty midcap index traded 55 points higher.
In the afternoon session market remained lower as Sensex was down 80 points while Nifty near 11,400. Nifty FMCG, media, financials, realty & metal dragged market while PSU bank, pharma & IT capped the losses. The broader market also erased some gains. The Nifty midcap index outperformed the market, was up 41 points.
In last hour of trade market fall further on weakening rupee as Sensex dipped 480 points while Nifty breached 11,300. A sharp sell-off dragged market at the lowest point. The all-round selling was witnessed among sectors such as banks, automobiles, FMCG, metals, pharmaceuticals and IT too. The Nifty Midcap index fell over a percent and that too weighed on the benchmarks. Sensex closed 509.04 points down at 37,413.13, Nifty down by 150.60 points at 11,287.50.
Top Gainers
Coal India by 1.72% to Rs.284.40, M&M by 1.03% to Rs.947.00, NTPC by 0.53% to Rs.170.10, Infosys by 0.39%to Rs.733.70, Bajaj Finserv by 0.23% to Rs.6,362.
Top Losers
Titan by -4.50% to Rs.818.95, Tata Steel by -3.94% to Rs.589.45, ITC by -3.38% to Rs.296.20, Tata Motors by -3.25% to Rs.266.75, Power Grid by -3.21% to Rs.186.75.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
Coal India is the top gainer in today's market with the short buying in the last hour of trade.
Titan is the top loser in today's market as selling pressure was seen in the stock as overall FMCG stocks corrected in todays market.
Key Market News
The relentless slide in Indias rupee has forced analysts to rework their forecasts. With the currency setting record lows on every next day, lenders like DBS Bank Ltd. have now started predicting the slide to as weak as Rs.75 per dollar. Indias trade deficit for August is likely to remain at $17 billion to $18 billion, while the Federal Reserve is set to raise rates again this month, both of these aspects are expected to weigh on the rupee said by Philip Wee, a senior currency strategist at DBS. UBS Securities India cut its year-end forecast about rupee to Rs.73 from Rs.66, while Scotia-bank sees the rupee nearing Rs.74 in the Fed meeting run up.
Domestic passenger vehicle sales dropped 2.46% to 2,87,186 units in August as against 2,49,416 units in the same month last year, automobile industry body SIAM said Tuesday. Car sales declined 1.03% to 1,96,847 units last month as against 1,98,892 units in August last year, according to data released by SIAM. Motorcycle sales last month grew by 6.18% to 12,06,512 units as compared to 11,36,322 units in August 2017. Total two-wheeler sales in August were higher by 2.91% to 19,46,811 units as against 18,91,685 units in the past previous year.
Stocks To Watch
Redington (India) Ltd. is on the upside while Power Finance Corporation Ltd. is on the downside.
Redington is currently trading at Rs.109.95, up by Rs.5.70 or 5.47% from its previous closing of Rs.104.25 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.105.70 & has touched a high & low of Rs.115.50 and Rs.105.70 respectively. So far 30,66,473 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.4,453.92 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.209.90 on 10-November-2017 & a 52 week low of Rs.88.65 on 21-August-2018.
PFC is currently trading at Rs.80.50, down by Rs.7.85 or 8.89% from its previous closing of Rs.88.35 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.89.15 & has touched a high and low of Rs.90.35 & Rs.80.25 respectively. So far 3,24,45,948 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.21,437.47 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.149.65 on 27-October-2017 and a 52 week low of Rs.67.50 on 17-July-2018.
Share Market News 10-September-2018
Sensex, Nifty Post Worst Day In Nearly 6-Months
The Benchmark indices started on a negative note, Sensex fell 120 points & Nifty
below 11,600. The equity market fell further as Sensex was down over 300 points while Nifty below 11,500. Except IT all sectoral indices traded in red led by FMCG, banking & financials, metal, auto, realty & pharma fell 0.5-1.5%. The broader market traded in red led by the Nifty midcap index was down 150 points.
In the afternoon session market dipped further as Sensex tanked over 400 points while Nifty near 11,450. Nifty IT continued to be lone gainer while banking & financials, metal, auto, FMCG, pharma, realty dipped almost by 1-2%. The broader market remained under pressure led by Nifty midcap index, was down 1.25%.
In last hour of trade market continued its southward journey where Sensex dipped 425 points while Nifty below 11,450. Weakness in rupee weighed market to close at lower levels. Traders rushed to dump stocks in segments such as auto, banks, financials, FMCG, pharma & metals, among others while IT index closed flat. In the broader markets, selling dragged as the Nifty midcap index which closed 338 points lower. Sensex closed 467.65 points down at 37,922.17, Nifty down by 151.00 points at 11,438.10.
Top Gainers
HCL Tech by 1.54% to Rs.1,090.45, Axis Bank by 0.92% to Rs.651.50, ZEEL by 0.66% to Rs.473.50, Cipla by 0.24%to Rs.666.35, TCS by 0.20% to Rs.2,084.
Top Losers
Bajaj Finance by -4.98% to Rs.2,607.60, IBULHSGFIN by -4.23% to Rs.1,161.45, Bajaj Finserv by -4.02% to Rs.6,335, Sun Pharma by -3.99% to Rs.637.75, BPCL by -3.61% to Rs.344.05.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
HCL Tech is the top gainer in today's market as the rupee continued to hit fresh lows against the dollar. Rupee crashed below Rs.72.65 against per dollar.
Bajaj Finance is the top loser in today's market as selling pressure was seen in the stock.
Key Market News
The sustained weakening of the rupee is credit negative for Indian companies which generate revenue in rupees but rely on US dollar debt to fund their operations, Moody's Investors Service said Monday. The Indian rupee has depreciated over 13% so far in 2018 & has breached Rs.77.50 for the first time compared to a dollar. "Nevertheless, most rated India-based corporates have protections in place including natural hedges, some US dollar revenues and financial hedges to limit the negative credit implications of a potential further 10% weakening of the rupee to the US dollar from Thursday's (6 September) rate (of 72.11 a dollar), Moody's VP and Senior credit officer Annalisa DiChiara said.
Indias current-account deficit widened in the April-June quarter from a year ago, on account of a larger trade gap. The $15.8 billion shortfall may still offer relief to the nations battered rupee, Asias worst-performing major currency so far this year, as it was less than the $17.3 billion median estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The shortfall represented 2.4% of the gross domestic product, worse than January-Marchs 1.9% of GDP, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement in Mumbai on Friday. It was at $15 billion during the same period last year, or 2.5% of GDP.
Stocks To Watch
Max Financial Services Ltd. is on the upside while IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd. is on the downside.
MFSL is currently trading at Rs.504.10, up by Rs.30.65 or 6.47% from its previous closing of Rs.473.45 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.483.50 & has touched a high & low of Rs.519.35 and Rs.472.50 respectively. So far 49,30,798 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.13,538.89 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.652.90 on 19-September-2017 & a 52 week low of Rs.403.25 on 05-July-2018.
IL&FS Trans. is currently trading at Rs.25.95, down by Rs.4.20 or 13.93% from its previous closing of Rs.30.15 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.29.25 & has touched a high and low of Rs.29.25 & Rs.25.25 respectively. So far 22,35,030 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.853.65 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.97.35 on 04-January-2018 and a 52 week low of Rs.25.25 on 10-September-2018.
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