A Series Of Macro-Events To Guide Nifty, Either 12000+ or 11500

Share Market Weekly

Our Analysis

Once again bouncing from the 50-EMA, the benchmark indices posted a decent gain on the derivatives expiry week. However, the Jun series was seen a 'time-wise correction' a pendulum swing in the broader range, with nifty losing 0.87 percent & forming a Doji candle on the monthly chart. Thus indicating the indecisive nature of the d-street, the weak option premium and the miss of India VIX before the election indicating the same to continue, yet any serendipitous encounter can lead the market to sprunt or vice-versa.

This week, market majorly traced the positive global clues, coupled with wanes of EL Nino giving the boost to monsoon. The Crude price also happened to settle after a sharp surge on the affair of Us - Iran. These were the major drivers for D-street in most of the session. Nevertheless, the Fed chairman's criticism on the constant pressure from the White House to cut interest rates, creating the chaos in the global market. Consequently, a U-turn in the benchmark indices was seen in the second half of the expiry day, a meaningful profit-booking kept nifty below 11850 marks. Besides, the SEBI board had tightened the liquid mutual fund norm & also fix the exposure of the HFC to protect the investors from credit risk arising out default from the borrowers.

The second half of 2019 is about to start. In the 1st half, Nifty posted a gain of more than 8 percent. The journey was a roller-coaster ride through NDAs thumping victory was a major highlight and the driver. Following the RBI rate cut, the jet airways saga, escalation in us-china trade war & NBFC crises were some other key influencers on the d-street in this half.

Going ahead, The G-20 summit meet & the budget would be the key event to watch for. All eyes would be on the talk between trump & Xi Jinping to draw some conclusion on the trade deal. Moreover, the auto sales figure would be the point of discussion to conclude the slowdown impact.

Technically, the close above 11,930.00 which is the 61.8 percent retracement of the recent low of 11625.00 can create upside swing to a new high, whereas closing below the 11,585 can open a downside. On the sectorial chart, Nifty PSU BANK, Reality is showing the strength, Nifty Metal has given a break-out, While the divergence was seen in pharma can be the outperformer in coming sessions.

This Weeks Market Highlights:

Benchmark Indices:

1) On Monday, The Indian share market closed lower after a volatile day.The closing was soared for Indian share market, with Sensex dropping 71.53 points to 39,122.96 and the Nifty declining 24.40 points to 11,699.70. Among sector compiled by NSE ended lower, led by the Nifty Metal Indexs 1.3 percent fall. On the flipside, the Nifty PSU Bank Index was the top sectoral gainer, up 0.25 percent.

2) On Tuesday, Indian share market recovered after the two days of consolidation, The positive momentum was triggered from the statement of Financial Minister regarding faster recovery in bad loans & recapitalization resulting in PSU banks to outperform. besides, the heavyweight Reliance Industries led its way in today's trade gaining more than 2.50 percent. Altogether it was a good day for the market with the Sensex closing at 39,434.94 up 311.98 points, while Nifty grew by 96.80 points at 11,796.50.

3) On Wednesday, Indian benchmark indices closed higher for the second day in a row, led by the Metal & Pharma stock. the heavyweight HDFCBK was the major index contributor gaining 1.61 percent. altogether the Sensex grew by 157.14 points at 39,592.08, while Nifty rise by 51 points at 11,847.50. The broader market also posted a gain of 0.98 & 0.75 percent in mid & Small-cap. Among sectors, except IT and FMCG, all other sectoral indices ended in the green led by pharma, metal, infra, bank, and energy.

4) A volatile expiry day closed the Indian share market on flat to negative note. On Thursday Nifty opened on a positive note, but failed to sustain the levels above 11,900 and corrected in the second half of the trading session. The two heavyweights HDFC & Reliance were seen trading in the opposite direction with a gain/loss of nearly 1.50 percent. In the close, the Sensex was trading at 39,586.41, down 5.67 points, while Nifty was down 6 points at 11,841.50.

5) On Friday, It was flat to a positive start for the benchmark indices for the first day of the July series with Nifty around 11,850.

Broader Index & Global Market:

- Globally, the market was trading higher in the first part of the week ahead of the G20 summit, the sentiment was held to negative on the criticism from the fed chairman Powell comment.

- In the broader market, The Mid & Small Cap has outperformed the benchmark indices with a stock specific accumulation continue to take place, buying was seen in infra, reality & some metal name.

Movers & Shakers

Shares of Torrent power surged nearly 18 percent after The company said GERC approved the power procurement arrangement of 278 MW between the company's UNOSUGEN power plant and its Licensed Distribution Business.

Shares of COX & KING dropped more than 40 percent in a week after it has defaulted on the payment of commercial papers due to cash flow mismatch and a situation exacerbated by rating downgrade.

Key Market Drivers

  • Fiscal Deficit touches 22% of budgeted estimate in April: DoE figures
  • Viral Acharya has resigned as a Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) six months ahead of the scheduled end of his term
  • Inter-state office services to come under GST net
  • FPIs against more inspection powers for Sebi
  • Sebi to tighten disclosure norms for pledged shares
  • The US aims to restart China trade talks, will not accept conditions on tariff use.
  • Gold soars to a six-year high.
  • Boost for monsoon as El Nino wane.
  • Trade deal with China possible this weekend: Trump
  • RBI releases directions on rupee interest rate derivatives

Event Watch

International:

  • Caixin China PMI Mfg
  • US Trade Balance

Domestic:

  • Crude price
  • INR Price
  • India Fiscal Deficit
  • Monsoon progress
  • Markit India PMI Mfg
  • Markit India PMI Services
  • India's Economic Survey
  • BUDGET

Stocks To Watch

POWERGRID & HDFCLIFE On Upside while LUPIN,BEML & TECHM on Downside.

Share Market News 27-June-2019

Nifty Clocks the Worst F&O Series In Eight Months; a loss of 0.87 percent.

On the F&O expiry day, Indian share market opened on the higher side, tracking positive cues from global markets ahead of the G-20 summit. The Sensex was up 74.75 points or 0.19% at 39,666.83, and the Nifty grew by 21.90 points or 0.18% at 11,869.40. All the sectoral indices were trading with the marginal gains led by the auto, PSU bank, FMCG and infra.

In the afternoon session, the Indian share market was at day's high. HDFCBAK was among the top contributor towards the benchmark indices, up by 1 percent. The Sensex grew by 158.11 points at 39,750.19, While nifty was trading at 11,891.90. Among sector, Except IT, all other sectors were trading in green led by the reality and auto sector. The broader market, the mid & small -cap was also trading with the gains of 0.45 & 0.58 percent.

A volatile expiry day closed the Indian share market on flat to negative note. In today's trade Nifty opened on a positive note, but failed to sustain the levels above 11,900 and corrected in the second half of the trading session. The two heavyweights HDFC & Reliance were seen trading in the opposite direction with a gain/loss of nearly 1.50 percent. In the close, the Sensex was trading at 39,586.41, down 5.67 points, while Nifty was down 6 points at 11,841.50. Once again the broader market outperformed the benchmark indices with Mid & small- cap up by 0.39 & 0.42 percent. Among sectors, buying was seen in the auto stocks, while IT, metal and energy stocks remained under pressure.

Top Gainers

TATAMOTORS by 2.48% to Rs 165.10,M&M by 2.32% to Rs 658.45, IBULSHSGFIN by 2.07% to Rs 624.95,EICHERMOT by 1.71% to Rs 19,480.00, INFRATEL by 1.62% to Rs 275.60.

Top Losers

TECHM By -2.10% to Rs 703.05, UPL by -1.62% to Rs 942.95,HCLTECH by -1.57% to Rs 1,061.80, RELIANCE by -1.40% to Rs 1,276.00., HINDALCO by -1.37% to Rs. 205.50.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

TATAMOTORS is the top gainer in today's market session, In todays trade, the overall auto sector has witnessed a buying interest, among which TAMO was the top performer.

TECHM is the top loser in today's market, The strength of rupee against the dollar has caused selling pressure in the IT stock.

Key Market News

  • Trade deal with China possible this weekend: Trump
  • RBI releases directions on rupee interest rate derivatives
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought Rs 106 crore worth of domestic stocks on Wednesday, DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 51 crore.

Stocks To Watch

HDFCLIFE is on the upside while TECHM is on the downside.

HDFCLIFE is currently quoting at Rs.455.60 up by Rs 13.85 or 3.14% from its previous closing of Rs.441.75 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.510.80 on 27-JUL-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.344.40 on 28-JAN-2019. The stock after making a strong base from the last 6-month has given a break-out on 27-May-2019 And had continually traded on the higher side, While buying emerging in each decline. Its basically an investment stock to hold for medium to long term.

TECHM is currently quoting at Rs.703.05 down by Rs.-15.05 or -2.10% from its previous closing of Rs.718.10 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 846.50 on 02-MAY-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 612.40 on 26-JUL-2018. The stock after making the double top on the weekly chart and completing the pattern with the broken neckline with heavy volume. the stock retraced and started to slide thereon & in todays trade, the volume had also increased. However, the stock is nearby oversold territory so each rise will be an opportunity to short the stock.

Share Market News 26-June-2019

Sensex gains 157 pts, Nifty ends at 11,848 ahead of June F&O expiry; Metals Shine

It's a negative opening for Indian share market, following the global trend. The Fed Reserve chairman pointed out the pressure he was facing from the president to cut the interest rate, created chaos in the global market. The Sensex declined by 63.84 points or 0.16% at 39,371.10, and the Nifty was down by 17.30 points or 0.15% at 11779.20. In early trade, selling was seen in the FMCG, IT, metal and PSU bank, while buying witnessed in the auto, energy, infra, and pharma.

Indian equity benchmarks held gains after reversing from opening losses, sun pharma to be the top performer trading with the gains of 3.45 percent. the Sensex was trading at 39,491.57 up 58.72 points while Nifty trading at 11,81220. The broader market was outperforming the benchmark indices with mid & small-cap gaining more than 0.65 percent. Among sector except for IT & FMCG, all other sectors were trading in green led by Pharma & reality.

Indian benchmark indices closed higher for the second day in a row, led by the Metal & Pharma stock. the heavyweight HDFCBK was the major index contributor gaining 1.61 percent. altogether the Sensex grew by 157.14 points at 39,592.08, while Nifty rise by 51 points at 11,847.50. The broader market also posted a gain of 0.98 & 0.75 percent in mid & Small-cap. Among sectors, except IT and FMCG, all other sectoral indices ended in the green led by pharma, metal, infra, bank, and energy. The Stocks from the banking and midcap spaces witnessed good momentum and have shown outperformance in the last couple of sessions. Along with this, stocks from the metal space were in limelight today as Nifty Metal index has given a breakout from the consolidation phase, additionally, ease in trade war tensions is likely to gain decent returns going ahead.

Top Gainers

VEDL by 5.08% to Rs 179.00,JSWSTEEL by 4.03% to Rs 277.80, POWERGRID by 3.52% to Rs 208.70,SUNPHARMA by 3.36% to Rs 398.70, HINDALCO by 3.11% to Rs 208.80.

Top Losers

BRITANNIA By -2.80% to Rs 2,729.00, IBULHSGFIN by -1.74% to Rs 610.75,INFY by -1.16% to Rs 739.40, INDUSINDBK by -1.15% to Rs 1,433.00., BHARTIARTL by -0.89% to Rs. 345.50.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

VEDL is the top gainer in today's market session After the company plans to invest heavily in solar energy to generate 1,000 MW in a couple of years.

BRITANNIA is the top loser in today's market After the speculations over the resignation of its Managing Director Varun Berry from the company circulated in the market.

Key Market News

  • The US aims to restart China trade talks, will not accept conditions on tariff use.
  • Gold soars to a six-year high.
  • Boost for monsoon as El Nino wane.
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought Rs 1,158 crore worth of domestic stocks on Tuesday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 377 crore.

Stocks To Watch

POWERGRID is on the upside while TECHM is on the downside.

POWERGRID is currently quoting at Rs.208.70 up by Rs 7.10 or 3.52% from its previous closing of Rs.201.60 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.210.95 on 26-JUN-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.172.50 on 14-FEB-2019. The stock has given break-out in upward direction closing at the 52 weeks high in todays trade, The stock is likely to continue its momentum.

TECHM is currently quoting at Rs.718.15 down by Rs.-6.20 or -0.86% from its previous closing of Rs.724.35 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 846.50 on 02-MAY-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 612.40 on 26-JUL-2018. The stock after making the double top on the weekly chart was trading indecisively. Today, on the daily chart the candle indicated the selling emerging from each rise considering the begin of fall in TechM for coming days.

Share Market News 25-June-2019

Sensex, Nifty Rebound After Two-Day HALT; RIL Leads.

Following the weak global clues, the Indian share market started on a negative note. The Sensex was down 137.85 points at 38,985.11, while Nifty declined by 41.50 points at 11,658.20. Among sectors compiled by NSE fell, led by the Nifty Media Indexs declined 0.79 percent. On the flipside, the NSE Nifty Realty Index was the top sectoral gainer, up 0.53 percent.

Indian benchmark indices erasing its early losses were trading flat to positive in the afternoon session. The Sensex was trading at 39,147.58 up 0.06 percent & Nifty at 11,705.25. The broader market was also trading with the marginal gain of 0.27 & 0.02 percent in mid & small-cap. Among sector, metal, reality & PSU bank were trading higher, While media, pharma & IT were the losers. The index heavyweight Reliance industries were standing tall with the gains of 1 percent.

Indian share market recovered after the two days of consolidation, The positive momentum was triggered from the statement of Financial Minister regarding faster recovery in bad loans & recapitalization resulting in PSU banks to outperform. besides, the heavyweight Reliance Industries led its way in today's trade gaining more than 2.50 percent. Altogether it was a good day for the market with the Sensex closing at 39,434.94 up 311.98 points, while Nifty grew by 96.80 points at 11,796.50. The broader market was also in-line with the benchmark indices posting a gain of 0.75 & 0.69 percent in mid & small-cap. On the sectoral front, all indices closed in green led by metal, energy, auto, PSU bank, pharma, infra, and FMCG. Increase in volatility took nifty from day low of 11,651 to days high of 11,814 and closed a day at 11,796 forming a bullish candle on daily chart suggesting some more upside before expiry. Immediate support for nifty is coming near 11,730-11,680 zone and resistance is coming near 11,850 any decisive break above said level may push index towards the 11,910-11,960 zone. However, Global uncertainty continues, with US-Iran tensions escalating and trade tension between the US and China continuing. FIIs have been net sellers this month selling around Rs 1,400 crore. With the Union Budget scheduled on July 5, all eyes remain on what measures the government will take to boost growth.

Top Gainers

JSWSTEEL by 3.18% to Rs 266.00 ,BPCL by 3.03% to Rs 392.40, RELIANCE by 2.61% to Rs 1,295.40,AXISBANK by 2.26% to Rs 780.10, TATASTEEL by 2.03% to Rs 496.10.

Top Losers

YESBANK By -2.05% to Rs 109.65, INFRATEL by -1.28% to Rs 269.30,ASIANPAINT by -1.03% to Rs 1,362.00, INDUSINDBK by -0.67% to Rs 1,451.75., LT by -0.59% to Rs. 1,531.95.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

JSWSTEEL is the top gainer in today's market session, despite the negative report from the CLSA regarding the steel price the stock was the top performer in todays trading session.

YESBANK is the top loser in today's market After the analysts have been downgrading Yes Banks stock on concerns over the further deterioration in asset quality

Key Market News

  • Inter-state office services to come under GST net
  • FPIs against more inspection powers for Sebi.
  • Sebi to tighten disclosure norms for pledged shares
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought Rs 207.33 crore worth of domestic stocks on Monday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 984 crore.

Stocks To Watch

INDIACEM is on the upside while TECHM is on the downside.

INDIACEM is currently quoting at Rs.102.60 up by Rs 7.20 or 7.55% from its previous closing of Rs.95.40 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.128.00 on 31-AUG-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.74.75 on 12-FEB-2019. The stock has made a double bottom pattern while breaking the neckline in todays trade with heavy volume, The MACD has also shown the divergence with RSI place at 57.19 indicating the upward trend in the coming days.

TECHM is currently quoting at Rs.724.50 down by Rs.-3.75 or -0.51% from its previous closing of Rs.728.25 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 846.50 on 02-MAY-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 612.40 on 26-JUL-2018. The stock after making the double top on the weekly chart & breaking the neckline, trading indecisive, the stock can witness the spike in volume and aggressive selling can be seen in the coming days.

Share Market News 24-June-2019

Nifty ends tad below 11,700, Metal index dips 1%

The tension between US & Iran resulted in a spike in the oil prices coupled with the resignation of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Viral Acharya made the investor cautious on D-street. Tracking the same benchmark indices opened flat with Sensex falling 6.65 points to 39,187.84 and the Nifty rising 11.10 points to 11,735.20. among the sector's the Private bank Indexs gain 0.43 percent. On the flipside, the Nifty Realty Index was the top sectoral loser, down 0.24 percent in the early trade.

In the afternoon session, the Indian share market was trading near its day low. The weakness was coming from the heavyweight reliance industries which were dragging the market lower. The Sensex was 49.58 points down at 39144.91, while nifty at 11707.60. On the sectoral front, the PSU bank, media & FMCG were trading marginally higher, while Auto, Metal & reality were among the top losers. The broader market was also trading in pressure with Mid & Small-cap down by 0.28 & 0.06 percent.

The Indian share market closed lower after a volatile day. The volatility is likely to stay with the monthly expiry coming into play, spooking the market sentiment. Additionally, the market participant will be eyeing on the G20 summit which is scheduled on Jun 28-29. Besides, the progress of monsoon and crude oil movement is likely to remain on traders radar. Overall, today's closing was soared for Indian share market, with Sensex dropping 71.53 points to 39,122.96 and the Nifty declining 24.40 points to 11,699.70. Among sector compiled by NSE ended lower, led by the Nifty Metal Indexs 1.3 percent fall. On the flipside, the Nifty PSU Bank Index was the top sectoral gainer, up 0.25 percent. The broader market also showed a similar trend as both the Midcap and Smallcap indices tanked 0.34% and 0.39 %. Once again, Nifty is taking its support nears its 50-EMA, Breaching or bouching from this level is possible, keeping a cautious stance is advisable.

Top Gainers

UPL by 5.38% to Rs 938.00 ,YESBANK by 1.64% to Rs 111.40, M&M by 1.47% to Rs 636.70,TCS by 1.21% to Rs 2,277.00, SBIN by 1.06% to Rs 353.10..

Top Losers

JSWSTEEL By -3.39% to Rs 258.10, EICHERMOT by -3.27% to Rs 19,075.00,ONGC by -3.01% to Rs 165.80, TATASTEEL by -2.36% to Rs 485.90., BAJAJ-AUTO by -2.14% to Rs. 2,814.00.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

UPL is the top gainer in today's market session after analysts said the company will not be impacted much because of the trade tensions and an outbreak of African swine fever.

JSWSTEEL is the top loser in today's market, the escalation in talk regarding converting the lease of 3,667 acres of land in Ballari to JSW Steel into a sale, Pull up the negative sentiment for the stock in todays trade.

Key Market News

  • Fiscal Deficit reaches 22% of budgeted estimate in April: DoE figures
  • Viral Acharya has resigned as a Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) six months ahead of the scheduled end of his term
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold Rs 730.58 crore worth of domestic stocks on Friday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 445.75 crore.

Stocks To Watch

M&M is on the upside while BRITANNIA is on the downside.

M&M is currently quoting at Rs.636.70 up by Rs 9.25 or 1.47% from its previous closing of Rs.627.45 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.993.00 on 29-AUG-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.597.20 on 16-MAY-2019. The stock after filling the gap which was created on 20-May made a marubozu candle on the daily chart, Which indicates the bullish nature of the stock, the stock is likely to attract the buying interest in the coming days.

BRITANNIA is currently quoting at Rs.2,776.00 down by Rs.-50.70 or -1.79% from its previous closing of Rs.2,826.70 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 3,467.18 on 23-AUG-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 2,615.18 on 08-May-2019. The stock is likely to create a pattern of the falling wedge, the divergence in MACD is also indicating a downside in the short term, the stock can witness the level of 2667.

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