A Series Of Macro-Events To Guide Nifty, Either 12000+ or 11500

Our Analysis

Once again bouncing from the 50-EMA, the benchmark indices posted a decent gain on the derivatives expiry week. However, the Jun series was seen a 'time-wise correction' a pendulum swing in the broader range, with nifty losing 0.87 percent & forming a Doji candle on the monthly chart. Thus indicating the indecisive nature of the d-street, the weak option premium and the miss of India VIX before the election indicating the same to continue, yet any serendipitous encounter can lead the market to sprunt or vice-versa.

This week, market majorly traced the positive global clues, coupled with wanes of EL Nino giving the boost to monsoon. The Crude price also happened to settle after a sharp surge on the affair of Us - Iran. These were the major drivers for D-street in most of the session. Nevertheless, the Fed chairman's criticism on the constant pressure from the White House to cut interest rates, creating the chaos in the global market. Consequently, a U-turn in the benchmark indices was seen in the second half of the expiry day, a meaningful profit-booking kept nifty below 11850 marks. Besides, the SEBI board had tightened the liquid mutual fund norm & also fix the exposure of the HFC to protect the investors from credit risk arising out default from the borrowers.

The second half of 2019 is about to start. In the 1st half, Nifty posted a gain of more than 8 percent. The journey was a roller-coaster ride through NDAs thumping victory was a major highlight and the driver. Following the RBI rate cut, the jet airways saga, escalation in us-china trade war & NBFC crises were some other key influencers on the d-street in this half.

Going ahead, The G-20 summit meet & the budget would be the key event to watch for. All eyes would be on the talk between trump & Xi Jinping to draw some conclusion on the trade deal. Moreover, the auto sales figure would be the point of discussion to conclude the slowdown impact.

Technically, the close above 11,930.00 which is the 61.8 percent retracement of the recent low of 11625.00 can create upside swing to a new high, whereas closing below the 11,585 can open a downside. On the sectorial chart, Nifty PSU BANK, Reality is showing the strength, Nifty Metal has given a break-out, While the divergence was seen in pharma can be the outperformer in coming sessions.

This Weeks Market Highlights:

Benchmark Indices:

1) On Monday, The Indian share market closed lower after a volatile day.The closing was soared for Indian share market, with Sensex dropping 71.53 points to 39,122.96 and the Nifty declining 24.40 points to 11,699.70. Among sector compiled by NSE ended lower, led by the Nifty Metal Indexs 1.3 percent fall. On the flipside, the Nifty PSU Bank Index was the top sectoral gainer, up 0.25 percent.

2) On Tuesday, Indian share market recovered after the two days of consolidation, The positive momentum was triggered from the statement of Financial Minister regarding faster recovery in bad loans & recapitalization resulting in PSU banks to outperform. besides, the heavyweight Reliance Industries led its way in today's trade gaining more than 2.50 percent. Altogether it was a good day for the market with the Sensex closing at 39,434.94 up 311.98 points, while Nifty grew by 96.80 points at 11,796.50.

3) On Wednesday, Indian benchmark indices closed higher for the second day in a row, led by the Metal & Pharma stock. the heavyweight HDFCBK was the major index contributor gaining 1.61 percent. altogether the Sensex grew by 157.14 points at 39,592.08, while Nifty rise by 51 points at 11,847.50. The broader market also posted a gain of 0.98 & 0.75 percent in mid & Small-cap. Among sectors, except IT and FMCG, all other sectoral indices ended in the green led by pharma, metal, infra, bank, and energy.

4) A volatile expiry day closed the Indian share market on flat to negative note. On Thursday Nifty opened on a positive note, but failed to sustain the levels above 11,900 and corrected in the second half of the trading session. The two heavyweights HDFC & Reliance were seen trading in the opposite direction with a gain/loss of nearly 1.50 percent. In the close, the Sensex was trading at 39,586.41, down 5.67 points, while Nifty was down 6 points at 11,841.50.

5) On Friday, It was flat to a positive start for the benchmark indices for the first day of the July series with Nifty around 11,850.

Broader Index & Global Market:

- Globally, the market was trading higher in the first part of the week ahead of the G20 summit, the sentiment was held to negative on the criticism from the fed chairman Powell comment.

- In the broader market, The Mid & Small Cap has outperformed the benchmark indices with a stock specific accumulation continue to take place, buying was seen in infra, reality & some metal name.

Movers & Shakers

Shares of Torrent power surged nearly 18 percent after The company said GERC approved the power procurement arrangement of 278 MW between the company's UNOSUGEN power plant and its Licensed Distribution Business.

Shares of COX & KING dropped more than 40 percent in a week after it has defaulted on the payment of commercial papers due to cash flow mismatch and a situation exacerbated by rating downgrade.

Key Market Drivers

• Fiscal Deficit touches 22% of budgeted estimate in April: DoE figures
• Viral Acharya has resigned as a Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) six months ahead of the scheduled end of his term
• Inter-state office services to come under GST net
• FPIs against more inspection powers for Sebi
• Sebi to tighten disclosure norms for pledged shares
• The US aims to restart China trade talks, will not accept conditions on tariff use.
• Gold soars to a six-year high.
• Boost for monsoon as El Nino wane.
• Trade deal with China possible this weekend: Trump
• RBI releases directions on rupee interest rate derivatives

Event Watch

International:

• Caixin China PMI Mfg
• US Trade Balance

Domestic:

• Crude price
• INR Price
• India Fiscal Deficit
• Monsoon progress
• Markit India PMI Mfg
• Markit India PMI Services
• India's Economic Survey
• BUDGET

Stocks To Watch

POWERGRID & HDFCLIFE On Upside while LUPIN,BEML & TECHM on Downside.