Rupee Tumbles To A New Low; Market Expected To Consolidate

Tide of Volatility Continues ahead of RBI MPC outcome

Our Analysis

This week, the market consolidated between 11,300 to 11,500 due to lack of positive triggers & consolidation in heavyweights like HDFC, HDFC Bank, Reliance. Indian Rupee depreciated at the all-time low against the dollar due to fear of Turkey crisis as the US imposed tariffs on Turkish aluminium & steel. Sectors like IT, pharma will be benefit from the depreciation of rupee. Stock specific rallies will continue in the coming times. The last leg of Q1 FY19 earnings will continue in next week. FOMC meeting minutes, crude oil prices & movement of currency will be an event to watch.

This Weeks Market Highlights:

Benchmark Indices:

1. The benchmark indices started the truncated week on a negative note as Sensex closed 224 points lower & Nifty below 11,400 as the rupee hit new lows.

2. Nifty banking & financials, media, auto, metal & realty dragged market while IT, pharma & FMCG capped losses. The Nifty midcap index also corrected, fell 0.65%.

3. On Tuesday, the bulls regained charge in D-street as Sensex surged nearly 300 points while Nifty near the 11,450 mark.

4. Nifty banking & financials, pharma, realty, IT, FMCG, auto & media index led the rally. Nifty midcap index outperformed benchmark indices, closed 1.19% higher.

5. On Thursday, equity indices closed lower as Sensex fell 190 points while Nifty below 11,400 as Rupee hit a new low.

6. Nifty banking & financials, metal, media, realty index dragged market while pharma, auto & IT capped losses. The Nifty midcap index closed 18 points lower.

7. On Friday, bulls again took control at D-street as the market opened higher.

Broader Index & Global Market:

- This week, the broader market again outperformed benchmark indices as Nifty midcap & smallcap rose 2-3%. On sectoral indices, Nifty Pharma, IT, FMCG & Auto rose 2-8% while Banking & Financials, Metal, Realty & Media index remained under pressure as the rupee hit the all-time low against the dollar.

- Global market regained its strength as trade war tension eased off on back of talk expectations. The European market, US market & other Asian markets witnessed good upside despite most of the currencies depreciated due to tariff imposed by the US on Turkey as its currency fell apart which rose the fear of a crisis in the emerging market.

Movers & Shakers

Shares of Apollo Hospitals surged over 20% this week after it posted a 71.02% increase in its standalone PAT at Rs.60.2 crore for the first quarter ended June 30. The company had reported a PAT of Rs.35.2 crore in the April-June quarter of 2017-18. Revenues grew by 16% to Rs.1,910.4 crore for the first quarter as compared with Rs.1,650.4 crore in the same period of previous fiscal.

Shares of Vakrangee plunged nearly 30% this week on the back of poor June quarter numbers. The company's Q1FY19 net profit down 92.2% at Rs.13.1 crore versus Rs.168 crore in the same quarter last fiscal. Revenue was down 22.6% at Rs.1,011.5 crore versus Rs.1,301.8 crore.

Key Market Drivers

India's retail inflation cooled more than expected in July due to subdued food prices after the Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates for the second straight time. Consumer price inflation in July rose 4.17% compared with the same month last year, declining from the 5 months high of 4.9% in June, according to data from the CSO. Headline inflation slowed for the first time after rising for the past four months. A Bloomberg poll of economists had expected inflation at 4.49% in July. The MPC projects inflation at 4.6% in the September ending quarter, 4.8% in the second half of 2018-19, & 5% in the first quarter of 2019-20.

India's wholesale inflation grew 5.09% in July marginally slower than 5.77% in June as rates of some food items fell & fuel prices according to the latest price data released by the commerce & industry ministry showed. The Wholesale inflation during the same month of the previous year was at 1.88%. Final WPI inflation rate for May has been revised to 4.78% as compared to 4.43% (provisional). Inflation in Fuel & Power, which contributes 13.15% to the index, continued to rise to 18.10% from 16.18%.

Event Watch

Indias Forex Reserve (USD) data will be on 24th August 2018.

Q1 FY19 Result:- Magma Fincorp, HDFC AMC, Motilal Oswal, P&G, Gillette India, LIC Housing Finance, Sundaram Finance.

Global:- FOMC Meeting Minutes will be on 22nd August 2018.

Stocks To Watch

Dilip Buildcon Ltd. is on the upside while Adani Green Energy Ltd. is on the downside.

Share Market News 16-August-2018


Banks Dragged The Market Lower; Nifty Ended Below 11,400

The Benchmark indices opened on a negative note as Sensex fell 150 points & Nifty below 11,400. The equity market turned positive as Sensex rose 20 points while Nifty back near 11,450. Nifty pharma, IT, PSU bank & auto held the market & recovery in the bank & financial helped market while metal index fell 1%. The Nifty midcap index traded outperformed benchmark indices, was up 40 points.

In the afternoon session market again turned negative as Sensex fell 120 points while Nifty around 11,400. Nifty Pvt. bank, financials, metal, media & realty dragged market while PSU bank, pharma, IT & auto index capped losses. The broader market also corrected as Nifty midcap index turned flat.

In the last hour of trade market remained lower as Sensex was down 150 points while Nifty below 11,400. The market ended on a negative note. Nifty banking, financials, metal, media, realty index dragged market while pharma, auto & IT capped losses. Nifty midcap index outperformed benchmark indices closed 18 points lower. Sensex closed 188.44 points down at 37,663.56, Nifty down by 50.05 points at 11,385.05.

Top Gainers

GAIL by 3.61% to Rs.393.50, Dr. Reddy by 3.47% to Rs.2,357.60, Sun Pharma by 3.19% to Rs.621.00, Lupin by 1.49%to Rs.849.20, Infosys by 1.47% to Rs.1,429.

Top Losers

Kotak Bank by -3.71% to Rs.1,245, Vedanta by -2.84% to Rs.209.00, ZEEL by -2.59% to Rs.500.65, HDFC by -2.54% to Rs.1,892.20, IBULHSGFIN by -2.51% to Rs.1,258.60.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

GAIL is the top gainer in today's market as the stock rose for the third day in a row after strong Q1 FY19 earnings.

Kotak Mahindra Bank is the top loser in today's market as investors reacted to regulatory developments on Tuesday. Kotak Mahindra Bank's preferential issue does not meet the dilution norms, the Reserve Bank of India had said on Tuesday.

Key Market News

The rating agency, India Ratings & Research, revised down, Indias GDP growth forecasts for the current financial year. The economic growth forecast has been reduced to 7.2% from 7.4% earlier. The key reasons, it said, are headwinds emerging from rising in crude prices, fixing of minimum support price (MSP), depreciating rupee as well as no visible signs of reduction in NPAs among banks. Although Ind-Ra expects the central government to meet its fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of GDP in FY19, the current account deficit is likely to touch USD71.1 billion (2.6% of the GDP) in FY19 from USD48.7 billion in FY18 (1.9% of GDP) due to the widening trade gap, it said in a statement.

Indias trade deficit in July widened to the most in more than 5 years, worsening the outlook for the rupee that hit a record low on Tuesday. The gap between exports & imports reached $18 billion in July, fanned by a higher oil import bill, according to data released by Indias commerce ministry on Tuesday. That compared with the $15.7 billion median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 24 economists & $16.6 billion in June.

Stocks To Watch

Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd. is on the upside while Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd. is on the downside.

HDIL is currently trading at Rs.31.10, up by Rs.5.15 or 19.85% from its previous closing of Rs.25.95 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.25.80 & has touched a high & low of Rs.31.10 and Rs.25.35 respectively. So far 6,19,69,857 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.1,334.56 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.69.15 on 15-January-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.17.45 on 20-July-2018.

Jain Irrigation is currently trading at Rs.75.60, down by Rs.7.65 or 9.19% from its previous closing of Rs.83.25 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.83.40 & has touched a high and low of Rs.83.40 & Rs.75.00 respectively. So far 1,63,54,899 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.3,764.94 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.150.40 on 29-January-2018 and a 52 week low of Rs.71.70 on 23-July-2018.

Share Market News 14-August-2018


Sensex, Nifty Snaps 2-Day Fall As Focus Shifts Back To Earnings

The Benchmark indices started on a positive note as Sensex rose 110 points & Nifty near 11,400 mark. The equity market surged further as Sensex rose 170 points while Nifty above 11,400 mark. Nifty banking & financials, auto, FMCG, realty & media traded higher while metal & pharma index traded lower. Nifty midcap index traded in line with benchmark indices, was up 60 points.

In the afternoon session, bulls took control in D-street as Sensex rose 270 points & Nifty around 11,450. All sectoral indices traded in green led by IT, FMCG, banking & financials, media, realty, pharma and auto rose 0.5%-1.5%. Broader market also traded higher led by Nifty midcap index, was up 120 points.

In the last hour of trade, the market continued to trade higher as Sensex was up 230 points & Nifty near 11,450. The market ended on a strong note. Nifty banking & financials, pharma, realty, IT, FMCG, auto & media index led the rally. Nifty midcap index outperformed benchmark indices, closed 1.19% higher. Sensex closed 207.10 points up at 37,852.00, Nifty up by 79.35 points at 11,435.10.

Top Gainers

Sun Pharma by 7.39% to Rs.605.60, Yes Bank by 3.45% to Rs.383.50, Lupin by 3.30% to Rs.838.75, Cipla by 2.81%to Rs.645.95, Bajaj Finance by 2.53% to Rs.2,830.20.

Top Losers

UPL by -2.64% to Rs.608.90, Adani Ports by -1.27% to Rs.372.35, Hero Motocorp by -1.26% to Rs.3,266.40, Bharti Airtel by -0.99% to Rs.366.50, HindPetro by -0.97% to Rs.270.45.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

Sun Pharma is the top gainer in today's market after company beat analysts' estimates as it has reported net profit in the quarter ended June 2018. Net profit at Rs.982 crore vs loss of Rs.425 crore, margin at 22.2% versus 17.6%.

UPL is the top loser in today's market as some sort of a profit booking was seen in the stock.

Key Market News

Indias retail inflation cooled more than expected in July due to subdued food prices after the Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates for the second straight time. Consumer price inflation in July rose 4.17% compared with the same month last year, declining from the 5 months high of 4.9% in June, according to data from the CSO. Headline inflation slowed for the first time after rising for the past four months. A Bloomberg poll of economists had expected inflation at 4.49% in July. The MPC projects inflation at 4.6% in the Sept. ending quarter, 4.8% in the second half of 2018-19, & 5% in the first quarter of 2019-20.

India's wholesale inflation grew 5.09% in July marginally slower than 5.77% in June as rates of some food items fell & fuel prices latest price data released by the commerce & industry ministry showed. The Wholesale inflation during the same month of the previous year was at 1.88%. Final WPI inflation rate for May has been revised to 4.78% as compared to 4.43% (provisional). Inflation in Fuel & Power, which contributes 13.15% to the index, continued to rise to 18.10% from 16.18%.

Stocks To Watch

Karur Vysya Bank Ltd. is on the upside while Allahabad Bank Ltd. is on the downside.

Karur Vysya is currently trading at Rs.100.00, up by Rs.7.10 or 7.64% from its previous closing of Rs.92.91 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.97.90 & has touched a high & low of Rs.100.90 and Rs.95.15 respectively. So far 39,51,401 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.7,993.03 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.146.73 on 18-September-2017 & a 52 week low of Rs.85.18 on 25-May-2018.

Allahabad Bank is currently trading at Rs.39.95, down by Rs.2.80 or 6.55% from its previous closing of Rs.42.75 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.42.50 & has touched a high and low of Rs.43.95 & Rs.39.15 respectively. So far 2,37,68,424 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.4,219.11 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.89.00 on 26-October-2017 and a 52 week low of Rs.37.30 on 16-May-2018.

Share Market News 13-August-2018


Sensex & Nifty Fall: Rupee At Record Low As Turkey Rout Spreads

The Benchmark indices started lower as bear took control as Sensex fell 270 points & Nifty below the 11,400 mark. The equity market continued to be weak as Sensex was down 230 points while Nifty below 11,400. Nifty banking & financials, auto, media & realty continued to week while IT, pharma traded in green. The Nifty midcap index also traded lower, was down 75 points.

In the afternoon session, the market was off days low as Sensex was down 100 points & Nifty near 11,400. Nifty banking & financials, media, realty traded lower though recovered while IT, pharma & FMCG continued to see strong buying. Nifty midcap index outperformed the market, traded flat with a little negative point.

In last hour of trade, the market fell further as Sensex dipped 240 points while Nifty near 11,350 levels. The market ended lower as the rupee hit new lows. Nifty banking and financials, media, auto, metal & realty dragged market while IT, pharma & FMCG capped losses. Nifty midcap index corrected in line with the market, fell 0.65%. Sensex closed 224.33 points down at 37,644.90, Nifty down by 73.75 points at 11,355.75.

Top Gainers

GAIL by 3.32% to Rs.375.00, Tech Mahindra by 2.64% to Rs.663.00, Sun Pharma by 1.95% to Rs.564.80, Grasim by 1.87%to Rs.989.50, HCL Tech by 1.75% to Rs.982.95.

Top Losers

BPCL by -5.75% to Rs.378.50, HindPetro by -4.77% to Rs.272.50, Yes Bank by -3.62% to Rs.369.00, VEDL by -3.40% to Rs.216.10, IOC by -3.37% to Rs.160.75.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

GAIL is the top gainer in today's market after the company meets estimates as Q1 profit rise 23% at Rs.1,259 crore. Brokerage house like JP Morgan remain Neutral but raised target price while CLSA retained buy rating.

BPCL is the top loser in today's market as Indian currency fell on the back of a sharp drop in Turkish lira against the US dollar.

Key Market News

The Indian rupee hit a fresh record low today, as a slide in E.M. currencies led by the Turkish lira spurred demand for haven assets. The rupee fell as much as 1.10% to 69.6150 versus the dollar in early trading before paring losses. The Indian currency has been the worst performer in Asia this year. The lira slumped for a fourth day to a new record low, after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan showed no signs of backing down in a standoff with the U.S. The MSCI Emerging Market Index slumped to the lowest in more than a year.

Fitch Ratings' outlook on the Indian banking sector is likely to remain negative until the banks address their weak core capital positions against mounting bad loans and poor financial performance, it said in a report. The capital position of state banks is most at risk, with the core capital ratios of 11 of India's 21 state banks below the 8% common equity Tier 1 (CET1) regulatory minimum that comes into place at financial year-end March 2019 (FYE 19), the report said. Banks' credit costs rose sharply following regulatory changes aimed at accelerating bad-loan recognition and led to losses that cumulatively eroded nearly all of the Rs.90,000 crore in govt. capital injected in FY18, adding to capital positions which were already weak.

Stocks To Watch

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. is on the upside while Vakrangee Ltd. is on the downside.

Apollo Hospital is currently trading at Rs.1,065.05, up by Rs.121.15 or 12.84% from its previous closing of Rs.943.90 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.948.00 & has touched a high & low of Rs.1,087.30 and Rs.945.00 respectively. So far 54,40,911 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.14,853 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.1,263.40 on 26-February-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.910.10 on 30-July-2018.

Vakrangee is currently trading at Rs.50.20, down by Rs.12.55 or 20.00% from its previous closing of Rs.62.75 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.53.50 & has touched a high and low of Rs.60.00 & Rs.50.20 respectively. So far 2,47,62,639 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.5,309.90 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.515.00 on 24-January-2018 and a 52 week low of Rs.30.85 on 07-June-2018.

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Niveza Editorial Desk : We are a team of stock market nerds trying to stay ahead of the herd. We spend our grey cells everyday to a pave a smooth road for our clients in the shaky world of stock market. While tracking the mood swings of the market we bring our clients the most rewarding deals.

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