Be Ready For A Blockbuster Diwali, Market Heading Towards 11950

Our Analysis

Post corporate rate cuts the equity market sky-rocketed like anything. The surprising bull run squeezed out bears from the market totally. Though the week was a roller coaster ride, however, the broader market has seen some healthy buying. The September series closed, nearly adding 623 points in the nifty, While BankNifty stepped up by almost 2600 points. The scenario clearly suggests a roadmap for the bulls after a long wait of one and a half year correction in the broader market.

The rating upgrades have already started to add fuel to the ongoing rally. It is a point where every buyer is trying to grab the best opportunity without missing any ride. This can be easily analyzed through demand and supply forces, increased demand and decreased supply show the panic buying in the market.

However, the restriction on the PMC bank by the RBI. Along with, the government's proposal for a strategic sale in five top CPSEs were some of the Buzz creators during the week. Besides, the favorable Crude price and strengthening of INR against the Dollar added positivity in the on-going bullish trend. Going forward, the RBI monetary policy will be an eye-catcher among the investors. The 25-40 Bps rate cut is majorly expected in the meeting scheduled on 4 Oct.

Technically, The Nifty is likely to build Bull Flag pattern on the daily chart, Saying that, consolidation or the time correction can trend nifty toward 11,350-11,370 zones. However, Such a dip should be considered as an opportunity for investment. While on the upside 11,950 is most likely to achieve.

This Weeks Market Highlights:

Benchmark Indices:

1) On Monday, The benchmark indices continued their upward momentum on the second post corporate tax cut by the Finance Minister on September 20. the Sensex was up 1,075.41 points at 39090.03, while Nifty grew by 329.20 points at 11,603.40. On the sectoral front, except IT and pharma, all other indices are ended higher led by the FMCG, bank, infra, auto, metal, and energy.

2)On Tuesday, Indian equities after two strong sessions took a pause and closed with a minor loss. The banking sector had brought pressure on the indices, while IT stock and Reliance were the top contributors. the Sensex was up 7.11 points at 39,097.14, while Nifty was down 12 points at 11,588.20.

3) On Wednesday, After an indecisive trade in yesterdays session, the Indian share market had witnessed a profit-booking, the selling has also emerged since the investors turned cautious over the negative global development. the Sensex declined by 503.62 points at 38593.52, while Nifty was down by 148.00 points at 11,440.20.

4) On Thursday, the Indian share market had strong closing on the monthly F&O expiry day. The market strength was led by metals and banking stocks. However, Easing of crude oil prices coupled with positive cues from the US-China trade war front, lend support to the market. Further, The positive cues from Prime Minister Modis address in Global Business Forum 2019 and expectations of further bold reforms boosted investor confidence.the Sensex grew by 396.22 points at 38,989.74, while Nifty was up by 131 points at 11,571.20.

5) On Friday, It was a weak start for the Indian indices on the back of subdued global cues.

Broader Index & Global Market:

-The global market traded mixed over this week, there was geographical tension after the drone attack on the Saudi oil facility, however, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected and further monetary easing, given the relief among the global market.

- The broader market is witnessing hefty buying interest. The Banking, Insurance, Paper, Metal & specialty chemical is bullish among all.

Movers & Shakers

Shares of Shipping Corporation of India surged more than 25 percent, after the media report about the government's proposal for a strategic sale in five top CPSEs, including SCI.

Shares of TAMO dropped more than 8 percent in a week after its subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) would suspend production at its UK plants for one week in November.

Key Market Drivers

• Sebi tightens rules for debt mutual fund.
• The country's foreign exchange reserves dropped by $649 million to $428.96 billion.
• India's August crude imports highest in 4-months.
• Labour Ministry notifies an 8.65% interest rate on EPF for 2018-19.
• Indian direct selling industry grew by 13% to Rs 13,000cr in FY19.

Event Watch

International:

• China Manufacturing PMI
• Caixin China PMI Mfg
• EU CPI Core YoY
• Markit US Mfg PMI

Domestic:

• Crude price
• INR Price
• RBI Monetary Policy

Stocks To Watch

ACE & RITES On Upside while, WIPRO & TATAMOTORS on Downside.