Nifty Is Well Placed, Rally Just A Trigger Away

Our Analysis

A vicious cycle of the events dragging market to the world of pain. That is the situation which we have witnessed this week. All the previous efforts taken by the government to clear the air failed to do so. The announcement of GDP numbers, which were on the subordinate levels kicked off a new downtrend. Lower GST collection, disappointing Auto numbers & the mega-merger of PSU Bank added fuel to the fire ahead. The market faced the biggest fall of this year during the week. However, Nitin Gadkaris recent speech somehow pumped a positive vibe in the market in the hope of the emergence of the auto and MSME sector.

The depreciating rupee appreciated export-oriented sectors like IT. However, the same has elevated the level of brent crude and trading above 60 levels. Moreover, the fear of recession can also be seen in investors from skyrocketing gold prices. Almost all the economies showing interest in investing in gold as it is considered to be the safe heaven in such economic turmoils.

Going ahead, Bulls are specifically waiting for the FM announcement which is the only trigger at present which can bring animal spirit back into play. The watch will also be on the FII activities, any buying report from them can boost the sentiment. On the technical front, Nifty is expected to form the inverted Head and shoulder pattern, the close above the neckline which is placed at 11,125 can resume the bullish trend. On the options front maximum Put OI is at 10800 followed by 10600 strikes, while maximum Call OI is at 11000 followed by 11500 strike in September series.

This Weeks Market Highlights:

Benchmark Indices:

1) On Tuesday, The Indian equity market clocked its worst fall since October 2018. Most of the name goes to the Reliance industries, which contributed a major portion in the fall of nifty. In all, the indices were trading under-pressure throughout the day among which the last hour selling squeezed the bears out of the d-street. the Sensex declined by 769.88 points or 2.06% at 36,562.91, while Nifty fall by 225.40 points or 2.04% at 10,797.90.

2) On Wednesday, the Indian share market closed with the positive bias, thanks to the Metals and Bank stocks which had shown signs of short covering, which is positive for the market as these stocks have very high beta and can change the momentum of the market. the Sensex grew by 161.83 points at 36,724.74, while Nifty was up by 39 points at 10,836.90.

3) On Thursday, The Indian share market missed the thrill factors that normally held in the expiry day. The entire last session has been a tussle between the bulls and bears with the result held to be a draw. The point to admire was nifty not losing its strength and holding the 10800 marks, While banking and financial stock slips and closed at days low giving a hard time to the benchmark indices. the Sensex closed at 36,644.42, while Nifty was up by 3.20 points at 10,847.90.

5) On Friday, a positive start for the Indian indices with Nifty around 10,900

Broader Index & Global Market:

- The global market traded mixed over this week, As there was a renewed US-China trade optimism, easing tensions in Hong Kong and British lawmakers' approval of a law to delay Brexit given ease to investors concern about global growth.

- In the broader market, Followed the benchmark indices which had fluctuated between gains and loss in this week, The pharma and IT stock was trading strong from start, followed by the Metal and auto pack in later part of the week. While banking and financials were the worst performers this week.

Movers & Shakers

Shares of PRABHAT DAIRY surged more than 30 percent after the companys board of directors to think to delist shares from the bourses on Sept. 10. The promoters intend to acquire a 49.9 percent stake from the public shareholders and then go for voluntary delisting.

Shares of CANARA BANK dropped more than 11 percent in a week after the announcement of the mega-merger.

Key Market Drivers

  • China, US kick off a new round of tariffs in a trade war
  • China lodges WTO trade complaint against the US.
  • Pound hits 3-year low as election threat adds to Brexit jeopardy
  • The US imposes duties on structural steel from China, Mexico.
  • RBI asks banks to link lending rates to external benchmarks.
  • US trade deficit shrinks, the gap with China remains elevated.

Event Watch


  • China CPI YoY
  • US CPI YoY


  • Crude price
  • INR Price

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