New Cabinet And Expected Reforms, The Equation For Next Bull Run

Share Market Weekly

Our Analysis

On the monthly expiry week, the indices were seen exhausted trading in the range of 100 points. However, if we put the may series altogether it was a roller coaster ride. In the first half was driven by profit bookings and post that prior to the exit polls, fresh buying took markets to new highs. The market witnessed a spectacular sprint of the decade during this phase, moreover, saffron partys win cherished the sentiments of investors. The win-win situation of investor and BJP led benchmarks to conclude the series tad above 11,900. Further, a decline in Brent crude prices by more than 5.5 percent played a role of cherry on cream.

Now, the euphoria around the election results settled down and BJP led NDA government have distributed the cabinet portfolio (refer below for detailed cabinet portfolio), its showtime now. Though NDAs optimistic first 100-day plan is boosting the various sectors in the economy, the government need to address some key issues on priority. Indias consumption and the financial sector is still wheezing through the liquidity crunch. Capital infusion in PSU banks through divestment from the public company & dividend from the RBI can bring the situation more on the softer side. Around all these things, RBIs monetary policy is yet another thing which can elevate the market sentiments if the rate cuts come up. Moreover, the simplification of GST in 2 slabs, a revamp of the corporate tax rate, tax exemption up to 5 lakh for a middle class, improvement of manufacturing and revitalize of make in India for the job creation, etc. are the major reforms that are expected to play the game ahead.

Looking at the current market situation, its quite visible that in the near term (2-3 years ) alpha would be created in mid and small cap space. The gap between valuations of the mid and small cap indices against the large cap is huge. According to our analysis, this performance gap counts around 26-27%. In FY18-19, small and mid-cap indices have underperformed and offered negative returns of 16-18 percent. However, during the same period nifty offered 11-12% positive returns. Moreover, Nifty Midcaps forward P/E (14.8x) is at a 19% discount as against Nifty (Large-cap) forward P/E (18.3x). Considering this gap we see a spike off in the mid cap and small cap space soon. So, its the time to pick the stories which are unfolding right now with the governments focus.

In the near term, the market is expected to dance on the tunes of macro data. GDP and the infrastructure output, monthly auto sale figures, RBI monetary policy and the progress in monsoon will remain the key events. Technically, benchmark indices are creating a strong foundation for the next leg of the rally, and therefore may correct in the shorter run to factor the recent higher pumpings.

Modi 2.0 New Cabinet Portfolio:

Name Cabinet Portfolio
Narendra Modi Prime Minister, Ministry of Personnel, Public Grievances and Pensions. Department of Atomic Energy; Department of Space
Rajnath Singh Minister of Defence
Amit Shah Minister of Home Affairs.
Nitin Gadkari Minister of Road Transport and Highways; and Minister of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises.
DV Sadananda Gowda Minister of Chemicals and Fertilizers.
Nirmala Sitharaman Minister of Finance; and Minister of Corporate Affairs.
Ramvilas Paswan Minister of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution.
Narendra Singh Tomar Minister of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare; Minister of Rural Development; and Minister of Panchayati Raj.
Ravi Shankar Prasad Minister of Law and Justice; Minister of Communications; and Minister of Electronics and Information Technology.
Harsimrat Kaur Badal Minister of Food Processing Industries.
Thaawar Chand Gehlot Minister of Social Justice and Empowerment.
Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar Minister of External Affairs.
Ramesh Pokhriyal 'Nishank' Minister of Human Resource Development.
Arjun Munda Minister of Tribal Affairs.
Smriti Irani Minister of Women and Child Development; and Minister of Textiles.
Dr. Harsh Vardhan Minister of Health and Family Welfare;Minister of Science and Technology; and Minister of Earth Sciences.
Prakash Javadekar Minister of Environment, Forest and Climate Change; and Minister of Information and Broadcasting.
Piyush Goyal Minister of Railways; and Minister of Commerce and Industry.
Dharmendra Pradhan Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas; and Minister of Steel.
Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi Minister of Minority Affairs.
Pralhad Joshi Minister of Parliamentary Affairs; Minister of Coal; and Minister of Mines.
Dr. Mahendra Nath Pandey Minister of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship.
Arvind Ganpat Sawant Minister of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprise
Giriraj Singh Minister of Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries
Gajendra Singh Shekhawat Minister of Jal Shakti

This Weeks Market Highlights:

Benchmark Indices:

1) On Monday, The Indian benchmark indices extended its gains closing at the day's high, boosted by the buying in infra and financial stocks, as cheer over Prime Minister Narendra Modi's return for a second term in office continued to buoy investor sentiment. the Sensex was up 248.57 points at 39683.29, while the Nifty was up 80.70 points at 11924.80.

2) On Tuesday, The benchmark indices after a dip in second-half had recovered smartly from the levels of 11865-11870, Once again the Banking stocks and namely Reliance & INFY saved the day. The Sensex was up 66.44 points at 39,749.73, while Nifty was up 16.40 points at 11,941.20.

3) On Wednesday,The Indian share market in the absence of any key positive triggers domestically and ongoing global uncertainty, especially with respect to US-China trade relations closed on the negative note. The selling was visible in Banks, Metal, Auto & Infra which kept the market lower. The Sensex was down 247.68 points at 39,502.05, while Nifty was down 67.70 points at 11,861.10.

4) On Thursday, The Indian share market closed strong on the monthly expiry day. The heavy-weight HDFC Twins, TCS, RIL & ICICIBK kept the indices sky-high. In closing, the Sensex was at 39,831.97, while Nifty was up 84.80 points at 11,945.90. The broader market was in-line as compared to benchmark with Mid-cap closing at the gain of 0.79 percent, & Small-cap at 0.38 percent higher.

5) On Friday, The Indian share market started the June series on the positive note.

Broader Index & Global Market:

- Globally, the market was worried over the concern of the US-china trade war going nowhere, The markets remained under pressure. The Nasdaq & the S&P 500 index were hovering over the 200DMA.

- In the broader market, The Mid & Small Cap were cherishing the Modi win and buying was seen in the broader space and its likely to continue considering the valuation and policy reforms that will take place going forward. Sector likely to remain focus will be PSU bank, Infra, reality, chemical & cement..

Movers & Shakers

Shares of PNC INFRA surged nearly 10 percent after PNC Infratech has reported a 25 percent jump in standalone net profit at Rs 139.93 crore for the quarter ended March, helped by higher income. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 111.52 crore during the same quarter a year ago, During January-March 2019,total income rose to Rs 1,087.96 crore from Rs 765.52 crore in the year-ago quarter.

Shares of Manpasand Beverages dropped more than 50 percent in a week after the company's Managing Director Abhishek Singh, his brother Harshvardhan Singh and the Chief Financial Officer Paresh Thakkar, who was arrested following a raid by the CGST Commissionerate, have been denied bail.

Key Market Drivers

  • Crude steel production stood at 8.662 MT in April 2019, up by 0.1 percent vs April 2018.
  • 10-year bond yield at over 1-year low at 7.16 percent
  • China regulator warns against yuan shorting
  • With favorable property prices, cuts in under-construction housing GST rates and an expectation of lower interest rates, Indian homebuyers are gradually returning to real estate market as the inventory months have dropped to 30 months in Q1CY19 from 50 months earlier
  • According to media sources, RBI is likely to relax the voting threshold for corporate debt restructuring to 90% from 100% earlier. This could be marginally positive for lenders as it will enable faster resolution of stress assets.
  • RBI extends timings for Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) from 4:30 pm to 6 pm.
  • Arun Jately optioned out from the cabinet.
  • RBI set up a task force on secondary market development in corporate loans.
  • The US had removed India from its currency monitoring list.

Event Watch

International:

  • China Caixin PMI Mfg
  • China Caixin PMI Services
  • China Foreign Reserves

Domestic:

  • Nikkiei India PMI Mfg
  • Nikkei India PMI Services
  • India GDP YoY
  • India GVA YoY
  • India Fiscal Deficit
  • RBI Moetary policy
  • INR Price

Stocks To Watch

MARICO & HDFCLIFE On Upside while ZEEL & RELIANCE on Downside.

Share Market News 30-May-2019

Nifty ends May series near 11,950,HDFC Twins & RIL Shines

Ahead of the F&O expiry, the Indian share market opened flat, the gain's were capped by the negative global sentiment. In the early trade, the Sensex was up by 36.91 points or 0.09% at 39538.96, and the Nifty was up by 14.60 points or 0.12% at 11875.70. Energy, infra, IT and pharma were the sectors with the marginal gains. Today the point of discussion on d-street would be the swearing ceremony of Modi & cabinet induction, which is scheduled in the latter part of the day.

The Indian share market after a flattish start gained the momentum and was trading higher. The contribution came from Reliance & TCS, trading with the gains of more than 1 percent. The Sensex was up by 223.53 points at 39,735.58, while Nifty at 11,9191.40. The same strength was seen in the broader market with Mid & Small-Cap up by 0.30 percent. Among sector IT, Bank & Energy were trading higher, While Auto, Pharma & metal were lowered.

TThe Indian share market closed strong on the monthly expiry day. The heavy-weight HDFC Twins, TCS, RIL & ICICIBK kept the indices sky-high. In closing, the Sensex was at 39,831.97, while Nifty was up 84.80 points at 11,945.90. The broader market was in-line as compared to benchmark with Mid-cap closing at the gain of 0.79 percent, & Small-cap at 0.38 percent higher. Among sectors energy, Infra & Banks led the rally, whereas Auto & Metal closed lower. During the May series, we saw some profit booking in the first half and then in the midst fresh buying emerged prior to the exit poll results. We saw a spectacular run as exit polls were in favor of the existing government. On the final result day, Nifty clocked record highs, but couldnt sustain at the higher levels due to the profit booking. Finally, after the outcomes, the benchmark stabilized and headed in the northward direction to eventually conclude the series tad above 11,900.

Top Gainers

NTPC by 3.32% to Rs 135.25 ,YESBANK by 2.34% to Rs 155.25,BAJFINANCE by 2.28% to Rs 3,486.95,BPCL by 2.10% to Rs 407.55, BHARTIARTL by 2.05% to Rs 345.75.

Top Losers

SUNPHARMA By -2.57% to Rs 412.90, EICHERMOT by -2.22% to Rs 19.970.00, ZEEL by -2.13% to Rs 364.60, M&M by -2.03% to Rs 658.50.,ONGC by -1.34% to Rs. 169.25.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

NTPC is the top gainer in today's market session, The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) has proposed to grant the National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) electricity trading license in India. The license is to be granted to help the NTPC in implementing renewable energy projects, especially solar and wind energy projects across the country.

SUNPHARMA is the top loser in today's market After posting the Q4FY19 result the stock is in focus and actively trading by the traders.

Key Market News

  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold Rs 304 crore worth of domestic stocks on Wednesday, DIIs were net seller to the tune of Rs 190 crore, data suggested.
  • Arun Jately optioned out from the cabinet.
  • RBI set up a task force on secondary market development in corporate loans.
  • The US removes India from its currency monitoring list.

Stocks To Watch

INDIACEM is on the upside while SAGCEM is on the downside.

INDIACEM is currently quoting at Rs.111.25 up by Rs 0.75 or 0.68% from its previous closing of Rs.110.50 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.134.25 on 29-MAY-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs. 74.75 on 12-FEB-2019. The stock is witnessing a strong buying interest & the overall cement pack is in focus and likely to remain so in coming days.

SAGCEM is currently quoting at Rs.680.05 down by Rs.-20.90 or -2.98% from its previous closing of Rs.700.95 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 958.00 on 29-MAY-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 528.15 on 19-FEB-2019. The stock presently is trading at the overbought zone and likely to face a pullback in coming days.

Share Market News 29-May-2019

Indices halt three-day rally, PSU banks close lower

Tracking the global cues the Indian share market edged lower in the opening bell. the Sensex was down 47.14 points at 39702.59, while Nifty was down by 11.50 points at 11917.30. Among the sectors, except IT and Pharma all other indices were trading lower. On the currency front, The Indian rupee opened lower at 69.75 per dollar versus previous close 69.69.

In the afternoon session, The Indian share market was trading flat seemed to be exhausted after a recent surge. The Sensex was down by 0.20 points at 39,670.91 & Nifty was trading at 11,905.85. Among sector except for IT & Pharma, all other sectors were trading in red, the top sectoral losers were the PSU bank, Metal, Media & Auto. The broader market was also witnessing the heat with MidCap down by 0.59 percent and Small-Cap declined by 0.25 percent.

The Indian share market in the absence of any key positive triggers domestically and ongoing global uncertainty, especially with respect to US-China trade relations closed on the negative note. The selling was visible in Banks, Metal, Auto & Infra which kept the market lower. The Sensex was down 247.68 points at 39,502.05, while Nifty was down 67.70 points at 11,861.10. In the broader market, The mid & Small-cap got corrected and closed with the loss of 0.70 percent. In the coming day's we expect the Indian markets to witness some consolidation. However, the Nifty now has to hold the 11,800 level to witness an upward move towards 11,950 and then 12,000 levels, whiles supports are seen at 11,760 levels.

Top Gainers

INFRATEL by 2.51% to Rs 275.75 ,SUNPHARMA by 2.25% to Rs 422.05,GAIL by 2.22% to Rs 356.50,TCS by 1.95% to Rs 2,114.20, HCLTECH by 1.28% to Rs 1,085.00.

Top Losers

JSWSTEEL By -4.44% to Rs 279.95, SBIN by -3.29% to Rs 348.20, TATASTEEL by -2.86% to Rs 492.55, CIPLA by -2.80% to Rs 561.75.,ZEEL by -2.61% to Rs. 371.85.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

INFRATEL is the top gainer in today's market session, Bharti Airtel is planning to raise about $1 billion from the sale of at least a 25% stake in its Africa subsidiary that will be listed on the London Stock Exchange. It plans to use the money raised to reduce debt.

JSWSTEEL is the top loser in today's market After BJP President BS Yeddyurappa has urged the government to revoke the cabinets decision to sell 3,666 acres of land currently leased to the JSWSteel in the mineral-rich Sandur taluk of Ballari district.

Key Market News

  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold Rs 501 crore worth of domestic stocks on Tuesday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 269 crore.
  • RBI extends timings for Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) from 4:30 pm to 6 pm.

Stocks To Watch

MOLDTECH is on the upside while KEC is on the downside.

MOLDTECH is currently quoting at Rs.58.85 up by Rs 5.05 or 9.39% from its previous closing of Rs.53.80 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.62.95 on 08-MAY-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.38.10 on 01-OCT-2018. The stock is witnessing a strong buying interest and its likely to continue in the coming days.

KEC is currently quoting at Rs.324.20 down by Rs.-7.70 or -2.32% from its previous closing of Rs.331.90 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 384.00 on 13-JUN-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 233.30 on 29-JAN-2019. The stock presently is trading at the overbought zone and likely to face a pullback in coming days.

Share Market News 28-May-2019

Sensex, Nifty Log Third Record Close Led by INFY, RIL

The Indian share market started on the flat note, the Sensex was up 38.88 points at 39722.17, while Nifty was up by 16.60 points at 11941.40. Among sectors, FMCG and PSU bank index was under pressure, while the buying was seen in the metal, auto, infra, and pharma. Expressing the headwinds lingering for D-street, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ltd had maintained a cautious stance on Indian markets indicating the concern over the slowing consumption and a brewing non-bank finance company crisis; coupled with the weak corporate earnings.

The Indian share market was still in the afternoon session, The heavyweight Reliance was trading at gains of 1.50 percent, while HDFC was the one witnessing the selling pressure down more than 2 percent. The Sensex was up by 16.86 points at 39,700.15 & Nifty was trading at 11,927.25. The broader market was showing some moderate gain with Mid & Small -Cap up by 0.35 percent. On the sectoral front, Media, Metal & energy were trading higher while, Banks & Infra were sinking.

The benchmark indices after a dip in second-half had recovered smartly from the levels of 11865-11870, Once again the Banking stocks and namely Reliance & INFY saved the day. The Sensex was up 66.44 points at 39,749.73, while Nifty was up 16.40 points at 11,941.20. Among sector IT, Media & Metal led the gains, While Infra, PSU bank & Auto declined. In the broder market, the Mid & Small-Cap closed with Flat to negative bias. After the recent surge in the benchmark indices, the market is likely to consolidate and expect to shift its focus towards macro data like Q4 GDP data and infrastructure output (scheduled this week), the onset of monsoon, events like RBI Monetary Policy slated next week (6 June) and also on Union budget.

Top Gainers

ZEEL by 5.26% to Rs 380.00 ,YESBANK by 4.50% to Rs 153.40,INFY by 2.56% to Rs 726.25,COALINDIA by 2.29% to Rs 249.70, POWERGRID by 1.95% to Rs 191.00.

Top Losers

INFRATEL By -4.06% to Rs 268.20, BAJAJ-AUTO by -3.09% to Rs 2,972.25, HEROMOTOCO by -2.56% to Rs 2,749.00, GRASIM by -2.54% to Rs 911.50.,ULTRACEMCO by -1.74% to Rs. 4,756.60.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

ZEEL is the top gainer in today's market session, After posting the Q4FY2019 result yesterday the stock has witnessed a strong buying in todays trade, Stock was up nearly 6 percent in todays trade.

INFRATEL is the top loser in today's market, In todays trade the stock has witnessed heavy selling interest, It cracks more than 4 percent in todays trade.

Key Market News

  • With favorable property prices, cuts in under-construction housing GST rates and an expectation of lower interest rates, Indian homebuyers are gradually returning to real estate market as the inventory months have dropped to 30 months in Q1CY19 from 50 months earlier
  • According to media sources, RBI is likely to relax the voting threshold for corporate debt restructuring to 90% from 100% earlier. This could be marginally positive for lenders as it will enable faster resolution of stress assets.
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought Rs 1,215.36 crore worth of domestic stocks on Monday, DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 327.86.

Stocks To Watch

INFOSYS is on the upside while M&M is on the downside.

INFOSYS is currently quoting at Rs.726.25 up by Rs 18.15 or 2.56% from its previous closing of Rs.708.10 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.773.00 on 09-APR-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.599.85 on 26-NOV-2018. The stock is currently trading strong and likely to remain so in coming days.

M&M is currently quoting at Rs.669.60 down by Rs.-9.75 or -1.44% from its previous closing of Rs.679.35 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 993.00 on 29-AUG-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 597.20 on 16-May-2019. The stock has witnessed selling pressure from higher level the share price is likely to come down in the coming days.

Share Market News 27-May-2019

Sensex, Nifty continue to ride Modi rally, end at record closing highs

Indian share market had a sluggish start with Sensex up by 1.36 points at 39436.08, and the Nifty down 4.20 points at 11839.90. Among sectors, auto, energy, and pharma were trading lower, while buying was seen in the metal, infra, and FMCG. The brokerage houses have Re-rated numerous companies following we may witness certain action in these stocks. Among which NTPC, IGL & Grasim were on the buy side, while Ashokley & JSW steel on the sell side.

In the afternoon session, The Indian share market had pick-up the pace and were trading higher, the strength was seen coming from HDFC & LART. The Sensex was up by 227.40 points at 39,662.12, While Nifty at 11,911.40.Compared to the benchmark indices the broader market had outperformed the d-street with Mid & Small - Cap gaining more than 1.50 percent. On the sectoral front, except pharma, all other sectors were trading in green led by Banks, Metal, Reality & Infra.

The Indian benchmark indices extended its gains closing at the day's high, boosted by the buying in infra and financial stocks, as cheer over Prime Minister Narendra Modi's return for a second term in office continued to buoy investor sentiment. the Sensex was up 248.57 points at 39683.29, while the Nifty was up 80.70 points at 11924.80. Among the sectors, except IT and pharma all other indices ended higher led by infra, metal, PSU bank, FMCG and energy. In the broader market, the Mid & Small- Cap closed with the gain of more than 1.60 percent. With the general elections behind us, the focus would return to earnings, upcoming macroeconomic data and global cues. As far as levels are concerned, 12000 12041 would be seen as immediate hurdles whereas on the lower side, 11850 11810 are likely to provide support on an intraday basis.

Top Gainers

TATASTEEL by 5.80% to Rs 512.25 ,YESBANK by 3.93% to Rs 146.75,IOC by 3.38% to Rs 162.10,NTPC by 3.27% to Rs 133.50, LT by 3.20% to Rs 1,593.50.

Top Losers

ZEEL By -4.47% to Rs 360.00, INDUSINDBK by -2.00% to Rs 1,616.00, RELIANCE by -1.77% to Rs 1,313.20, BHARTIARTL by -1.19% to Rs 349.00.,TECHM by -1.19% to Rs. 727.10.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

TATASTEEL is the top gainer in today's market session, As per the report, Chinas iron ore futures hit a new high and extending its last weeks record-breaking rally, as stocks of the steelmaking ingredient at ports continued to drop while worries lingered about another Brazil mine dam at risk of collapsing.

ZEEL is the top loser in today's market, The stock crackdown in todays trading session, As the company is likely to post the Q4FY2019 result after the market hour.

Key Market News

  • Crude steel production stood at 8.662 MT in April 2019, up by 0.1 percent over April 2018
  • 10-year bond yield at over 1-year low at 7.16 percent
  • China regulator warns against yuan shorting
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought Rs 2,026 crore worth of domestic stocks on Friday, DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 195.35 crore.

Stocks To Watch

GRASIM is on the upside while RELIANCE is on the downside.

GRASIM is currently quoting at Rs.934.00 up by Rs 23.95 or 2.63% from its previous closing of Rs.910.05 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.1,093.60 on 31-MAY-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.689.10 on 15-Feb-2018. The overall cement pack is on the strong move and the stock is witnessing the strength on the technical front and likely to remain the same.

RELIANCE is currently quoting at Rs.1,313.20 down by Rs.-23.65 or -1.77% from its previous closing of Rs.1,336.85 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs1,471.50 on 03-MAY-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 906.60 on 30-May-2018. The stock has witnessed selling pressure in throughout trading session and will likely to remain so.

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ABOUT AUTHOR

Niveza Editorial Desk : We are a team of stock market nerds trying to stay ahead of the herd. We spend our grey cells everyday to a pave a smooth road for our clients in the shaky world of stock market. While tracking the mood swings of the market we bring our clients the most rewarding deals.

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