D-Street Wipes Out All 2018 Gains
Oct 05, 2018 | 16:31 PM IST
Oct 05, 2018 | 16:31 PM IST
Our Analysis
The stock market witnessed a bloodbath due to the increase in Rupee (74/$) among other major factors. Adopting the Calibrated Tightening stance the RBIs kept the rate of 6.5% unchanged, higher crude oil prices and the governments decision to cut Rs.1.5 in excise duty as well as asking OMCs (Oil Marketing Companies) to cut Rs.1 which triggered sharp selloff in OMCs including Reliance. Sensex & NIFTY both wiped out all 2018 gains as they fell over 2,000 & 700 points respectively this week. Almost all sectoral indices remained under pressure.
Liquidity concerns in NBFCs, issues of IL&FS, further rupee depreciation, rising crude oil prices, trade tariff war all is not going to help Indian market in coming times as well, though as Q2 FY19 earnings will start with TCS next week, can defy the market mood going ahead.
This Weeks Market Highlights:
Benchmark Indices:
1. Market started the month of October on a strong note as after opening losses market bounced back with Sensex surging 299 points & NIFTY above 11K.
2. A relief rally in financials pushed indices higher, while auto, metals & IT names ended in the green. Midcaps, too, recovered sharply to close 131 points higher.
3. On Wednesday a sharp selloff dragged equity market lower as Sensex dipped 550 points while NIFTY closed below 11,900.
4. Barring metal all other sectoral indices closed in red led by auto, FMCG, IT, banking & Financials. Midcaps too corrected with market, closed 200 points lower.
5. On Thursday, Sensex lost over 800 points while NIFTY closed below 10,600.
6. All sectoral indices closed in red led by OMCs, Energy, banking & financials, FMCG, metal. NIFTY midcap index also witnessed carnage, lost over 2%.
7. On Friday, Sensex lost nearly 800 points while NIFTY closed near 10,300 post RBIs policy outcome.
Broader Index & Global Market:
- This week the broader market too witnessed the carnage barring the first day of October led by NIFTY midcap & smallcap which corrected 6-9%. On the sectoral indices banking & financials, auto, pharma, energy, realty, IT, metal, media & FMCG all index corrected 2-10% due to overall selloff in market.
- This week US market hit new highs but corrected to this week low due to high bond yields. European market also corrected due to higher dollar & higher crude oil prices. Asian market continued to correct on the fear of trade war concern despite Chinese market closed. Crude Oil price traded at new 4-year highs & fear of growth also weighed market. US CPI, GBP GDP, Crude oil prices will be an event to watch.
Movers & Shakers
Shares of Yes Bank rallied over 17% this week after the management in its conference call looked confident about healthy growth in Q2 & said the succession planning for new MD & CEO is underway. Most of the brokerage houses continued to be positive after the bank commentary & expect as much as 114% upside in the stock after recent correction due to RBI decision.
Share of Oil Marketing company HPCL tanked over 30% this week after the Govt. announced Rs.2.50 per litre cut in petrol and diesel prices as it reduced excise duty and asked oil companies to absorb another Rs.1. After this move most of the brokerage firms downgraded the oil stocks as they expect on annualised basis PBT may drop by about Rs.9,000 crore based on current sales volumes.
Key Market Drivers
Key Takeaways From RBI MPC Outcome
- MPC keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.5 percent
- MPC changes stance from neutral to 'calibrated tightening'
- Repo rate kept unchanged by a 5-1 vote; Chetan Ghate voted for a rate hike
- Stance changed by a vote of 5-1; Ravindra Dholakia voted for a neutral stance
- RBI proposes voluntary retention route for FPIs in debt markets
- Inflation projected at 3.9-4.5% in H2 & 4.8% in Q1 of financial year 2019-2020
- GDP growth seen at 7.4% in FY19 & 7.6% in FY20
The growth of Indias infrastructure industries slowed to 4.2% in August as compare to 7.3% in August & 4.4% in August last year. The Nikkei India services Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, fell to 51.6 in September. Despite a slight improvement in the manufacturing sector, the index recorded its lowest level in four months. The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, or PMI, increased slightly to reach 52.2 in September from 51.7 in August.
Event Watch
Indias CPI for Sept. (YoY), IIP for Aug. (YoY), Manufacturing Output for August (MoM) & Forex Reserve data will be on October 12th 2018.
Q2 FY19 Result:- TCS, Tata Elxsi, Bandhan Bank, ZEEL, GM Breweries, Karnataka Bank, Tata Sponge, Avenue Supermarts, AU Small Finance bank.
Global:- US Core CPI, CPI, Trade Balance, PPI data will be next week.
Stocks To Watch
Titan Company Ltd. is on the upside while BPCL Ltd. is on the downside.
Share Market News 03-October-2018
Rupee Depreciation Led Carnage In Market, Nifty Ended Below 10,900
The Benchmark indices opened sharply lower as Sensex lost 180 points & Nifty below 10,950 on rupee depreciation. The equity market extended losses as Sensex fall 250 points while Nifty below 10,950. Baring metal all sectoral indices traded in red led by auto, FMCG, IT, banking & financials. Broader market stayed with its downtrend led by Nifty midcap index, traded over 1% lower.
In afternoon session market remained weak as Sensex was down 180 points while Nifty above 10,950. Recovery in banks, financials & more buying in metal helped some recovery while auto, FMCG & IT traded in red. Nifty smallcap index surged nearly 2% while midcap index turned positive, traded 25 points higher.
In last hour of trade market extended its losses as Sensex fall over 500 points while Nifty below 10,900. A sharp selloff led market to close at days low. Baring metal all other sectoral indices closed in red led by auto, FMCG, IT, banking & Financials. Midcaps too corrected inline with market, closed 200 points lower. Sensex closed 550.51 points down at 35,975.63, Nifty down by 150.05 points at 10,858.25.
Top Gainers
Yes Bank by 5.63% to Rs.212.15, Hindalco by 4.76% to Rs.254.05, IBULHSGFIN by 3.74% to Rs.940.00, Hindpetro by 3.56%to Rs.251.80, VEDL by 3.35% to Rs.240.45.
Top Losers
M&M by -7.03% to Rs.788.00, Eicher Motors by -6.79% to Rs.23,070, Infratel by -6.45% to Rs.250.35, TCS by -4.38% to Rs.2,156.65, Axis Bank by -3.62% to Rs.571.95.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
Yes Bank is the top gainer in today's market as for the second day strong buying interest has been seen in the stock as most of brokerage house is bullish.
M&M is the top loser in today's market after it reported only 2% increase in total sales at 55,022 units in September 2018 as compare to 53,752 units in the same month last year. It disappointed investors expectations.
Key Market News
After opening at all-time low the Indian rupee slipped further and touched the record low of 73.41 per dollar. It has opened lower by 33 paise at 73.24 versus Monday's close 72.91 per dollar. Rupee continued to remain under pressure and today is expected to open at fresh record low levels following sharp surge in global crude oil prices. Brent crude is now at four-year high levels on worries that global supplies will drop due to Washingtons sanctions on Iran, said Motilal Oswal.
The growth of Indias infrastructure industries slowed to 4.2% in August as output of coal, refinery products and fertilizers moderated. Core sector had grown 7.3% in August & 4.4% in August last year. Official data released by commerce and industry ministry on Monday showed growth slowing in six out of eight sectors. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity, constitute 40.27% of the total industrial production. Its cumulative growth in the April to August period was 5.5% compared with 3% in the year ago period. Crude oil output continued to decline with a 3.7% fall registered in August compared with a 5.4% drop in July.
Stocks To Watch
Infibeam Avenues Ltd. is on the upside while Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. is on the downside.
Infibeam is currently trading at Rs.77.80, up by Rs.10.90 or 16.29% from its previous closing of Rs.66.90 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.68.25 & has touched a high & low of Rs.80.25 and Rs.67.80 respectively. So far 4,26,20,734 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.5,114.75 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.242.70 on 18-September-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.39.10 on 01-October-2018.
M&M is currently trading at Rs.788.00, down by Rs.59.60 or 7.03% from its previous closing of Rs.847.60 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.845.50 and has touched a high & low of Rs.845.50 and Rs.787.00 respectively. So far 66,80,994 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.98,355.18 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.933.00 on 29-August-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.626.38 on 03-October-2017.
Share Market News 01-October-2018
Happy Beginning of October, Sensex ends 299 points higher.
The Benchmark indices started the month of October on a negative note, Sensex fell 80 points & Nifty below 10,900. The equity market extended losses as Sensex fall 200 points while Nifty below 10,850. Nifty IT rose over 1% while banking and financials, metal, pharma, realty & auto index fall over 1%. The broader market stayed with its downtrend led by the Nifty midcap index, traded 2% lower.
In the afternoon session market off days low, Sensex was down 50 points while Nifty still below 11,900. Recovery in banks, financials, metal & FMCG helped market to off days low while IT & PSU bank surged over 1%. Among the broader markets, the Nifty Midcap index underperformed the market, traded 1% lower.
In the last hour of trade market rebounded strongly as Sensex surged 190 points while Nifty above 10,950. Its a strong positive start for the October month. A relief rally in financials pushed indices higher, while automobiles, metals and IT names ended in the green. Midcaps, too, recovered sharply to close 131 points higher. Sensex closed 299.00 points up at 36,526.14, Nifty up by 77.85 points at 11,008.30.
Top Gainers
Yes Bank by 8.82% to Rs.199.85, Hindalco by 6.25% to Rs.244.00, IBULHSGFIN by 4.11% to Rs.892.05, HDFC by 3.45%to Rs.1,815, SBIN by 3.24% to Rs.274.10.
Top Losers
Bharti Airtel by -4.18% to Rs.324.40, HindPetro by -3.36% to Rs.243.00, Axis Bank by -3.34% to Rs.592.75, Ultratech Cement by -2.93% to Rs.3,941.15, IndusInd Bank by -2.43% to Rs.1,649.
Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser
Yes Bank is the top gainer in today's market after it released unaudited financial results for the quarter ended September 2018. The company registered 41% YoY rise in deposits at Rs.2.23 lakh crore in Q2FY19, while the Casa ratio grew 28.20% YoY.
Bharti Airtel is the top loser in today's market as some selling pressure was seen in the stock & technical suggest more downside in the stock.
Key Market News
Indian factory activity expanded more quickly in September on strong domestic and export order growth, a business survey showed, a welcome sign of strength as policymakers worry about a sharp drop in the rupee and fallout from global trade frictions. The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by IHS Markit, rose to 52.2 in September from 51.7 in August. While the latest PMI was slightly below a Reuter's poll median of 52.4, it has held above the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction for 14 straight months.
Indias monsoon, which accounts for more than 70% of annual precipitation, missed a forecast for normal rainfall for a second year. Showers totaled 804 millimeters or about 91% of the 50-year average in the June to September period, data from the IMD showed. The bureau had maintained a forecast of 97% in August despite dry conditions in the first half of the season. A monsoon is normal when rainfall is between 96 and 104% of the long-term average. Indias 91 main reservoirs held 122.5 billion cubic meters of water as of Thursday, compared with 105 billion cubic meters a year earlier, according to the Central Water Commission.
Stocks To Watch
Dewan Housing & Finance Corporation Ltd. is on the upside while Bandhan Bank Ltd. is on the downside.
DHFL is currently trading at Rs.321.15, up by Rs.46.20 or 16.80% from its previous closing of Rs.274.95 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.275.00 & has touched a high & low of Rs.324.00 and Rs.265.00 respectively. So far 3,65,73,239 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.9,975.66 Crore. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.691.50 on 03-September-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.252.65 on 28-September-2018.
Bandhan Bank is currently trading at Rs.452.20, down by Rs.113.05 or 20% from its previous closing of Rs.565.25 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.475.55 and has touched a high & low of Rs.485.90 and Rs.452.20 respectively. So far 41,97,547 (NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs.53,819.36 Crore. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.741.80 on 09-August-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.452.20 on 01-October-2018.
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