Weekly Sector Updates

1.Infrastructure / Financial Services Sector
Reasons to Consider:
There is a next big event is coming up that is budget, in budget because of recessionary
pressure when demand goes down, government spend to increase the aggregate demand, so it
generally spends on infrastructure, public utility and other basic sectors. Also after budget
there is a RBI policy event so both these sectors will bounce in the coming week as pre -
budget rally. But one needs to be cautious as market generally comes down after budget.
Union Budget 2023-24 is less than two weeks away and expectations are that it will be a
populist budget ahead of elections next year. Generally budgets are expected to focus on
long-term growth, continuing on the path of fiscal consolidation, further strengthening the
financial system, and lowering the current account deficit, so this budget will also focus on
these things ahead of 2024 elections. Stock market investors can expect some specific sectors
such as Infrastructure, Energy, and Defence among others to be the theme for the budget.

Next Week Outlook
Infrastructure / Financial Services Sector are going to show strength in coming weeks as events related to these are on the cards.

2.It sector
Reasons to Consider:
IT Sector boomed in pandemic and ran a lot because of work from home conditions. But now
because of the fear of slow down in economies most of the jobs in IT were freezed and
people were laid off so headcount addition is expected to remain muted due to slowing
demand from IT companies Also the dollar appreciation impact will neutralizes now which boosted the sales of export
oriented companies and US listed companies. IT sector showing resistance, in few weeks time it will change its direction.
IT Sector took resistance in December 1 st week and fallen around 10% as suggested and
bounced back a little, IT Sector has given breakout against our view of taking resistance in
last week. It may continue its upward journey with little breaks as most of the results of IT
companies were in line.

Next Week Outlook
IT sector is going to continue its upward march in the coming weeks with little pull backs as
most of the companies from this sector have posted in-line to satisfactory results as per the
estimates.

1.Pharma Sector
Reasons to Consider:
The current market size of the pharmaceutical industry in India is estimated to be valued
above USD50 billion (2020-21) with a growth rate of 10-12 per cent. The industry ranks third
worldwide for production by volume and 14th by value.
The Indian pharmaceutical industry grew at a modest CAGR of 6.6 per cent to reach USD20
billion in 2019 from USD15.5 billion in 2015. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the
industry witnessed a slump but recovered soon after to register a phenomenal growth starting
from early 2020 because of In the first half of 2020, there was a reasonable demand for
COVID related products like Remdesivir, vitamins and minerals kind of supplemental products.
The second wave of the pandemic boosted the sales of drugs having a direct/indirect role in
the treatment of COVID. Anti-infectives and nutraceuticals witnessed impressive growth.
Indian pharmaceutical industry takes a big leap in exports At a time when
the global pharma market was negatively growing by 1-2 per cent in 2020, there was a surge
in demand for made in India generics and vaccines primarily owing to its quality and
affordability. In the 2020-30 period, it is expected that the Indian pharmaceutical industry
will grow at a CAGR of 12.3 per cent17 to reach at USD130 billion.
This sector is going to take support again as new variant of Covid started emerging again, A
whopping 250 million people in China may have been infected by Covid19 in just 20 days
after the abrupt end of the strict covid zero policy. China is roiling under a severe wave of
Covid-19, driven by the highly infectious BF7 variant, other countries like Japan and South
Korea are also witnessing a spurt in new cases.

Next Week Outlook
Pharma Sector is going to show strength in coming weeks as new variant of Covid has hit
China again, which is a Macro-economic tailwind to boost this sector once again.

2.It sector
Reasons to Avoid:
IT Sector boomed in pandemic and ran a lot because of work from home conditions. But now
because of the fear of slow down in economies most of the jobs in IT were freezed and
people were laid off so headcount addition is expected to remain muted due to slowing
demand from IT companies Also the dollar appreciation impact will neutralizes now which boosted the sales of export
oriented companies and US listed companies. IT sector showing resistance, in few weeks time it will change its direction.

Next Week Outlook
As guided IT Sector has fallen since December 1 st 2022, almost 3000 points fall was there
which is approximately 10%, so a pull back can come but remember in this bounce try to exit
and do not hold any long term position as fundamentals havent changed yet.

While analysing the markets we need to check the overall global scenario along with our own markets, because there are several things which affects markets right from the International market scenarios like, inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties led by the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war, headwinds in China both on account of the countrys zero covid-tolerance policy and political tension with Taiwan, Commodity prices especially Crude oil and Gold etc, last but not the least is Dollar Index which influence market and growth rate immensely, all of these events have led to tighter financial conditions and weakened economic activity across the world.

This year FIIs have been sellers but still the Indian market has done well. FIIs will come back, as last year they sold quite a bit but the market remained steady because of our local investors.
A few years ago, the participation of retail investors in the Indian capital market was insignificant, with less than two crore demat accounts. Post-covid, the landscape has changed dramatically, as demat account openings were clocking more than 10 lakh a month. Currently, the total demat accounts stand at 10.43 crore.

SIPs annual contribution increased from INR 43,921 crore in FY17 to INR 1 lakh crore by FY20 and currently registering an inflow of INR 12,500 crore on average per month. In October 2022, the SIP inflow was at the highest level of Rs. 13,000 crores, up 30% (YoY). Total SIP assets under management (AUM) stand at INR 6.64 lakh crore.It would be safe to say that retail investors have developed faith in building long-term portfolios and equity investing is slowly gaining popularity as a vehicle to save money and creating long-term wealth in India. There will be certain kind of rebalancing towards the debt funds in turbulence market conditions, but the particular base line flow will be there from FIIs and local investors. Also global investors needs less riskier/stable geopolitical conditions, they do not really want to increase their exposure to China because of the geopolitical issues. So even though the China market looks much cheaper compared to India and the Indian market looks relatively expensive, FII flows will slowly come in here as at the end of August 2022, India moved to the second spot in the MSCI emerging market (EM) index with a weight of 14.48% replacing Taiwan according to the data from Bloomberg. For India, as a part of this emerging market basket, its weightage has gone up from 8% to 15% and that will increase money flow towards India. Secondly we dont think that a lot of big money will go back to China because with every passing day, the unpredictability of Chinas geopolitical and economic situation is getting trickier for the global investors to have any faith. China is also facing issues regarding the real estate bubble. If something happens in the Chinese market on the real estate front then some banks will go bankrupt, that risk can create a global contagion.

Key Market Drivers

Coronavirus
Budget (1st Feb)
Inflation rate
RBI Policy ( 6-7th Feb)
Russia/Ukrain War
Results Q3FY23

First three months of 2023 will be an action packed quarter as all of the above drivers have the capacity to influence the market positively or negatively, for e.g if budget is promising for middle class like changes in slabs / favourable tax rates /tax exemption etc then market will go in upward direction and vice versa. 2023 will be the traders market, essentially a buy on dips market, so buy whenever it corrects and exit at resistance. Already the benchmark index has corrected a bit, still its better placed than the other markets e.g. Dow Jones has fallen 6%, S&P 7% , Nikkei 8%, Hangseng 5%.we have fallen only 4% in both Nifty and Banknifty even if we fall little more still we will be better than the lot.

1.Sugar Sector
Reasons to Consider:
October to Septemberis generally considered as the sugar season in India. In this sugar
season, that is, between the October 2021 and September 2022, a record of over 5,000 lakh
metric tons (LMT) sugarcane was produced in the country, out of which about 3574 LMT of
sugarcane was crushed by sugar mills to produce about 394 LMT of sugar (Sucrose). Out of
this, 35 LMT sugar was diverted to ethanol production and 359 LMT sugar was produced by
sugar mills. With this, India has emerged as the worlds largest producer and consumer of
sugar as well as the worlds 2nd largest exporter of sugar.

Sugar, is an Agro based industry, is prone to monsoons. Also, as sugar is an essential
commodity, it faces high levels of government intervention. Furthermore, the sugar business
is a working capital-intensive business , Sugar production is a seasonal industry with a short
crushing season varying normally from 4 to 7 months in a year.
Sugar industry has its own problems like Uncertain production because of fluctuations in
monsoon, low yield of sugarcane, low sugar recovery rate and high production cost but the
government has taken various measures in the past couple of years that have changed the
dynamics of the sugar industry. The introduction of minimum selling price of sugar in 2018
addressed the key issue of fixed raw material price and finished product price, making
spreads less volatile to sugar cycles
While Indias sugar production has been increasing structurally over the past few years, due
to an improvement in sugarcane yields, but demand growth remained modest at 1-2%
annually, resulting in high inventory levels. In order to help sugar companies, manage their
inventory levels, the government is focusing on an ethanol blending programme and has
advanced the timeline for 20 per cent ethanol blending in petrol to 2025 from 2030. Given the
current blending rate of about 9 per cent, the target presents a huge demand potential, the
government has been incentivising the segment.

Next Week Outlook
The government may consider increasing sugar export quota for the current 2022-23 year
after assessing the domestic production in January. Keep an eye on the sector currently
almost every stock in this sector looks overvalued, enter in correction as the entire sector will
be positively impacted if exports quota will be increased. Also it is good for long term
investment after correction because government is increasing the Ethanol blend in petrol from
9% to 20%.

2.It sector
Reasons to Avoid:
IT Sector boomed in pandemic and ran a lot because of work from home conditions. But now
because of the fear of slow down in economies most of the jobs in IT were freezed and
people were laid off so headcount addition is expected to remain muted due to slowing
demand from IT companies
Also the dollar appreciation impact will neutralizes now which boosted the sales of export
oriented companies and US listed companies. IT sector showing resistance, in few weeks
time it will change its direction.

Next Week Outlook
As guided IT Sector has fallen since December 1 st 2022, almost 3000 points fall was there
which is approximately 10%, so a pull back can come but remember in this bounce try to exit
and do not hold any long term position as fundamentals havent changed yet.

1.Real Estate Sector
Reasons to Consider:
Real estate sector has three segments namely Residential, Commercial and Industrial.
Residential properties are in demand because of work from home and study from home
culture because covid has fueled the demand of residential properties as they need extra
space. Interest rate scenario and recession will be having moderate effect. As housing
demand not sensitive to modest increase in interest rate and after first 12-24 months from
home purchase, EMI becomes a non-issue if there is a salary growth. So Residential Housing
demand will not go down drastically until unemployment is sky high or wage growth rate is
lower. For commercial property problem increasing as more and more people started working
from home so it's demand is going down, while industrial property demand will remain
inelastic. Also in recession or in the time of the turmoil rising home prices enable older
population to maintain spending power and for younger lot it's an inflation hedge. But
generally we need to see the trade off between rental yields & mortgage rates also when
mortgage rates are low thats the time to buy property. When the economy is strong, interest
rates tend to rise along with growth. Higher interest rates, translate into higher mortgage loan
costs. Rising rates make homes more expensive for buyers, thereby reducing the demand for
home purchases. Reduced demand also hurts sellers as they need to reduce the prices of their
homes in order to attract buyers. But if the economy grows fast enough, rising mortgage rates
will not have as great an effect on property value and housing prices, as long as salaries and
wages correspondingly grow as well.

Next Week Outlook
Real Estate Sector is going to show strength in coming weeks as Interest rates are moderate
and our growth projections arent very bad either also we havent hit by recession yet.

2.It sector
Reasons to Avoid:
IT Sector boomed in pandemic and ran a lot because of work from home conditions. But now
because of the fear of slow down in economies most of the jobs in IT were freezed and
people were laid off so headcount addition is expected to remain muted due to slowing
demand from IT companies.
Also the dollar appreciation impact will neutralizes now which boosted the sales of export
oriented companies and US listed companies. IT sector showing resistance, in few weeks
time it will change its direction.

Next Week Outlook
IT sector is going to slow down in 2023 because of Dollar Appreciation story will come to
an end, fear of impending recession and lay off in IT industry. it will still show weakness in
coming weeks because of above reasons.

1.AutoSector
Reasons to Consider:
In line with the increased demand ahead of the wedding season, Auto sales picked up as
People in India celebrate marriages in a big way.

Auto sector manufacturers and retailers are hopeful that the wedding season will notably up
their sales in coming few months as people spend more on occasions like these. Already the
November month sales number of most of the auto companies are positive like Mahindra &
Mahindra and others, the only impact came is export sales but domestic sales are strong and
clocked the growth over year on year.

Next Week Outlook
Auto Sector is going to show strength in coming weeks because of wedding season.

2.It sector
Reasons to Avoid:
IT Sector boomed in pandemic and ran a lot because of work from home conditions. But now
because of the fear of slow down in economies most of the jobs in IT were freezed and
people were laid off so headcount addition is expected to remain muted due to slowing
demand from IT companies.
Also the dollar appreciation impact will neutralizes now which boosted the sales of export
oriented companies and US listed companies. IT sector showing resistance, in few weeks
time it will change its direction.

Next Week Outlook
IT sector is going to slow down in 2023 because of Dollar Appreciation story will come to
an end, fear of impending recession and lay off in IT industry. it will still show weakness in
coming weeks because of above reasons.

1.Auto Sector
Reasons to Consider:
In line with the increased demand ahead of the wedding season, Auto sales picked up as
People in India celebrate marriages in a big way.

Auto sector manufacturers and retailers are hopeful that the wedding season will notably up
their sales in coming few months as people spend more on occasions like these. Already the
November month sales number of most of the auto companies are positive like Mahindra &
Mahindra and others, the only impact came is export sales but domestic sales are strong and
clocked the growth over year on year.

Next Week Outlook
Auto Sector is going to show strength in coming weeks because of wedding season.

2.It sector
Reasons to Avoid:
IT Sector boomed in pandemic and ran a lot because of work from home conditions. But now
because of the fear of slow down in economies most of the jobs in IT were freezed and
people were laid off so headcount addition is expected to remain muted due to slowing
demand from IT companies.
Also the dollar appreciation impact will neutralizes now which boosted the sales of export
oriented companies and US listed companies. IT sector showing resistance, in few weeks
time it will change its direction.

Next Week Outlook
IT sector is going to slow down in 2023 because of Dollar Appreciation story will come to
an end, fear of impending recession and lay off in IT industry. it will still show weakness in
coming weeks because of above reasons.

1.Textiles & Apparel Sector
Reasons to Consider:
November 15 till February 2023, 3.2 million weddings are lined up and markets are humming as people gather to shops to complete their shopping. Ahead of the marriage season, there has been an increase in demand for consumer electronics, apparel, essential commodities and gold. Over 32 lakh weddings till February 2023 to boost sales hence demand for electronics, apparel, gold will go up. Nearly 20-25 per cent of the wedding budget of all the weddings will be spent on gold, Apparel & Electronics hence we expect the sales to be 10-15 per cent more than the pre-Covid time The domestic apparel & textile industry in India contributes approx. 2% to the countrys GDP, 7% of industry output in value terms.

The share of textile, apparel and handicrafts in Indias total exports was 11.4% in 2020-21. India holds 4% share of the global trade in textiles and apparel. India is one of the largest producers of cotton and jute in the world.

India is also the 2nd largest producer of silk in the world and 95% of the worlds hand-woven fabric comes from India. The Indian technical textiles segment is estimated at $16 bn, approximately 6% of the global market. The textiles and apparel industry in India is the 2ndd largest employer in the country providing direct employment to 45 mn people and 100 mn people in allied industries.
Apparel and consumer electronics manufacturers and retailers are hopeful that the wedding season will notably up their sales in December and the January-March quarter as people spend more on occasions like these.

Next Week Outlook
Textiles & Apparel Sector is going to show strength in coming week.

2.Consumer staple Retail Industry sector
Reasons to Consider:
Consumer staple industry is more or less recession proof as these are necessities so their demand is inelastic, it doesnt depend upon economic growth as consumer discretionary industry does.
The earnings for companies in the Consumer Retailing industry have grown 30% per year over the last three years. Revenues for these companies have grown 17% per year. This means that more sales are being generated by these companies overall, and subsequently their profits are increasing too.

Next Week Outlook
Consumer staple Retail Industry sector is going to show strength in coming week.

1.Consumer staple Retail Industry
Reasons to Consider:
Consumer staple industry is more or less recession proof as these are necessities so their demand is inelastic, it doesnt depend upon economic growth as consumer discretionary industry does. Some highlights for the industry
is given below.
The earnings for companies in the Consumer Retailing industry have grown 30% per year over the last three years. Revenues for these companies have grown 17% per year. This means that more sales are being generated by these companies overall, and subsequently their profits are increasing too.

Next Week Outlook
Consumer staple Retail Industry sector is going to show strength in coming week.

2.Healthcare Sector
Reasons to Consider:

The Healthcare industry in India comprises of hospitals, medical devices, clinical trials, outsourcing, telemedicine, medical tourism, health insurance, and medical equipment.The industry is growing at a tremendous pace. The Indian Healthcare industry was valued at $1.9bn in 2020. By 2023, it is expected to reach $ 5B by 2023 at a CAGR of 39% Overall employment in healthcare occupations is projected to grow 13 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 2 million new jobs over the decade.
Growing incidence of lifestyle diseases, rising demand for affordable healthcare delivery systems due to the increasing healthcare costs, technological advancements, the emergence of telemedicine,
rapid health insurance penetration and government initiatives like e-health together with tax benefits and incentives are driving the healthcare market in India.

Next Week Outlook
Healthcare Sector sector is going to show strength in coming weeks..

1.Healthcare Sector
Reasons to Consider:
The Healthcare industry in India comprises of hospitals, medical devices, clinical trials, outsourcing, telemedicine, medical tourism, health insurance, and medical equipment. The industry is growing at a tremendous pace. The Indian Healthcare industry was valued at $1.9bn in 2020. By 2023, it is expected to reach $ 5B by 2023 at a CAGR of 39%

Overall employment in healthcare occupations is projected to grow 13 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 2 million new jobs over the decade.

Growing incidence of lifestyle diseases, rising demand for affordable healthcare delivery systems due to the increasing healthcare costs, technological advancements, the emergence of telemedicine, rapid health insurance penetration and government initiatives like e-health together with tax benefits and incentives are driving the healthcare market in India.

Next Week Outlook
Healthcare sector is going to show strength in coming week.

2.Oil & Gas Industry
Reasons to Consider:

Global energy company earnings which surged on stronger oil and natural gas prices, should ease in 2023 as the industry adjusts to slower demand growth and an economic slowdown. In coming weeks softening commodity prices and limited growth in production volumes likely to remain cyclical.

Still there is a high Geopolitical risk premium which will continue to support oil prices at levels well exceeding medium-term oil price range.

Next Week Outlook
Oil & Gas Industry sector is going to show strength in coming weeks..

1.Metal Sector
Reasons to Consider:
Indian steel demand is expected to remain firm in the second half of the financial year as higher
inflation, recession in USA/Europe makes the global Metal/ Steel industry week. Economists are
talking about a recession in western countries but for India the economic growth rate will not be
impacted much and there is strong linkages between Metal/Steel and the underlying economy we
have a positive outlook for this sector in India. Domestic markets are strong and we do not have an
inventory overhang , we might have a slight correction in prices going forward but demand will be
good.

Next Week Outlook
Metal sector is going to show strength in coming week.

2.Gold/Jewellery
Reasons to Consider:

Jewellery industries will be in demand because of wedding season, discounts by jewellers would fuel
the demand. Hallmarking is mandatory for all registered jewellers . Naturally, wedding season sees a
surge in demand for gold. This especially true this year From June 1, 2022, all jewellers in India can
only sell hallmarked gold jewellery irrespective of its purity so more confidence for buyers.
with marriage season around the corner, leading jewellers and bankers hope that the jewellery sale
in India will grow during the festive season

Next Week Outlook
Gold/Jewellery sector is going to show strength in coming weeks..

1.Hospitality/Hotel
Reasons to Consider:
After Diwali/Festive season one of the sectors to benefit the most is the Hotel Industry as wedding
season is approaching and most of the people look for all-inclusive package for weddings, including
Banquet venue, dcor, planners, and rooms for a great experience for their guests.
Hotels have also come up with innovative wedding packages which help future couples find all their
expected necessities in one place, with specially tailor made offers.
Destination weddings, an ongoing mania nowadays, have promised an immense rise in revenue for
hotels and would benefit from regaining losses caused due to the global pandemic.

Next Week Outlook
Hotel sector is going to show strength in coming week.

2.Gold/ Gold/Jewellery
Reasons to Consider:

Jewellery industries will be in demand because of wedding season, discounts by jewellers would fuel
the demand. Hallmarking is mandatory for all registered jewellers . Naturally, wedding season sees a
surge in demand for gold. This especially true this year From June 1, 2022, all jewellers in India can
only sell hallmarked gold jewellery irrespective of its purity so more confidence for buyers.
with marriage season around the corner, leading jewellers and bankers hope that the jewellery sale
in India will grow during the festive season

Next Week Outlook
Gold/Jewellery sector is going to show strength in coming weeks..

1.Auto
Reasons to Consider:
This Diwali/Festive season one of the sectors to benefit the most is the auto sector. Diwali is the new year for many. And they people make big purchases. To attract more customers, automakers announce Diwali special offers & discounts. These offers comprise exchange bonuses, cash discounts, and corporate discounts.
Currently, car makers are offering cashbacks, exchange, and discounts up to Rs. 1 lakh to attract customers for e.g. Maruti Suzuki has begun discount offers on its cars of up to Rs 56,000 for October 2022. The car discounts are for models like S-Presso, Dzire, Celerio, Swift, Alto, and WagonR.

Next Week Outlook
Auto sector is going to show strength in coming week.

2.Gold/ Jewellery
Reasons to Consider:

Jewellery industries will be in demand because of festival season especially Diwali, discounts by jewellers would fuel the demand. Hallmarking is mandatory for all registered jewellers .
The first day of Diwali is Dhanterasthe day of purchase of gold. Naturally, Diwali sees a surge in demand for gold. This especially true this year From June 1, 2022, all jewellers in India can only sell hallmarked gold jewellery irrespective of its purity so more confidence for buyers.

With the festival of Diwali along with marriage season around the corner, leading jewellers and bankers hope that the jewellery sale in India will grow during the festive season.

Next Week Outlook
Jewellery sector is going to show strength in coming weeks..

1.Auto
Reasons to Consider:
This Diwali/Festive season one of the sectors to benefit the most is the auto sector. Diwali is the new year for many. And they people make big purchases. To attract more customers, automakers announce Diwali special offers & discounts. These offers comprise exchange bonuses, cash discounts, and corporate discounts.
Currently, car makers are offering cashbacks, exchange, and discounts up to Rs. 1 lakh to attract customers for e.g. Maruti Suzuki has begun discount offers on its cars of up to Rs 56,000 for October 2022. The car discounts are for models like S-Presso, Dzire, Celerio, Swift, Alto, and WagonR.

Next Week Outlook
Auto sector is going to show strength in coming week.

2.Gold/ Jewellery
Reasons to Consider:

Jewellery industries will be in demand because of festival season especially Diwali, discounts by jewellers would fuel the demand. Hallmarking is mandatory for all registered jewellers .
The first day of Diwali is Dhanterasthe day of purchase of gold. Naturally, Diwali sees a surge in demand for gold. This especially true this year From June 1, 2022, all jewellers in India can only sell hallmarked gold jewellery irrespective of its purity so more confidence for buyers.

With the festival of Diwali along with marriage season around the corner, leading jewellers and bankers hope that the jewellery sale in India will grow during the festive season.

Next Week Outlook
Jewellery sector is going to show strength in coming weeks..

1.Consumers Durables
Reasons to Consider:
According to the reports strong domestic consumer demand because of the festive season and with the Q2FY23 results just around the corner, we look at another sector - consumer durables - that may show similar strength with the cooldown in raw material prices.

Consumer durables include companies that manufacture consumer electronics, home furnishings, home appliances, housewares. The durable goods consist of daily appliances we use at home like televisions, refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machines.

Next Week Outlook
Consumers Durables sector is going to show strength in coming week.

2.Jewellery
Reasons to Consider:
Jewellery industries will be in demand because of festival season especially Diwali, discounts by jewellers would fuel the demand.
As per reports gold price volatility is unlikely to check the jewellery demand and a remarkable sale would be registered during this year's `Dhanteras.
With the festival of Diwali along with marriage season around the corner, leading jewellers and bankers hope that the jewellery sale in India will grow during the festive season.

Next Week Outlook
Jewellery sector is going to show strength in coming weeks..

1. Pharma Industry
Reasons to Consider:
As per reports- The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has released an updated national list of essential medicines (NLEM) which includes 384 drugs across different therapies. Pharma companies taking steps in international markets manufacturing products at surprisingly low costs while maintaining quality.

Next Week Outlook
Looking at the current Market situation ,the stocks are bouncing back and the trend has to be up. If not immediately, the coming weeks sector may perform considering the macro and global developments.

2. FMCG
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports, Urban markets saw positive volume growth, as per the coming festival season and good monsoon the consumption-push in the second half of the year.

Next Week Outlook
We are expecting next week to be in line with last week's performance of the sector.

1. Automobile
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports- Retail sales for the automobile industry as a whole fell around 8% YoY to 14,36,927 units. Two-wheeler retail sales in July were down 10.9% YoY to 10,09,574 units, while car retail sales fell 4.7% YoY to 2,50,972 units.
High Inflation which is definitely going to affect consumer buying sentiments especially in the two wheeler segment, already reeling under pressure with lower sales and increasing vehicle prices.

Next Week Outlook
Auto sector is expected to follow same trend next week.

2. Textile Industry's
Reasons to Avoid:
According to the report, High inflation impacts to push down demands of textile in upcoming months. Higher prices will compensate for the volume loss and ensure the industry's revenue remains flat compared to last year, operating margins would be impacted.

Next Week Outlook
We expect a similar to weak situation next week .

1. Cement
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports, the cement sector is likely to witness a glut of new supplies over the next three to four years (i.e. at 7.2% CAGR) based on the recent capex plan announced by major cement companies. Assuming some delays, we still expect supply CAGR of 6-6.5% vs. historical average of 4.4%. This would lead to fresh rounds of consolidation especially in the mid and small sized cement players having high cost structure/bloated b/s. The near-term cost headwinds have already pressurised margins as player are unable to pass on the cost pressure due to moderation in demand in the wake of higher inflation. This has led to cement sector underperforming broader markets.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is week due to sector headwind, result season kicking on and market volatility.

2. Speciality Chemical
Reasons to Consider:
As per reports, a strong underlying global demand environment in agrochemicals and pharmaceuticals in addition to China+1 tailwinds (as global supply chains get de-risked) and improved prospects of business are likely to drive revenue. Capex and improving product mix would drive growth further.

Next Week Outlook
Next weeks outlook is flat to stable with some profit booking.

1. Construction Material
Reasons to Consider:
As per reports- On regional basis, volumes declined by high single-digit YoY in West and Central India due to heavy rainfall while East and South India are likely to report low to mid single-digit growth led by robust demand in the infrastructure segment. Volumes in North India were broadly flat YoY. Further, cumulative rainfall till date has been ~5% above normal, which we believe augurs well for IHB demand from H2FY22 onward.

Next Week Outlook
Nextweeks outlook is flat to stable with some profit booking.

2. Speciality Chemical
Reasons to Consider:
As per reports, a strong underlying global demand environment in agrochemicals and pharmaceuticals in addition to China+1 tailwinds (as global supply chains get de-risked) and improved prospects of business are likely to drive revenue. Capex and improving product mix would drive growth further.

Next Week Outlook
Nextweeks outlook is flat to stable with some profit booking.

1. Cement
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports, the cement sector is likely to witness a glut of new supplies over the next three to four years (i.e. at 7.2% CAGR) based on the recent capex plan announced by major cement companies. Assuming some delays, we still expect supply CAGR of 6-6.5% vs. historical average of 4.4%. This would lead to fresh rounds of consolidation especially in the mid and small sized cement players having high cost structure/bloated b/s. The near-term cost headwinds have already pressurised margins as player are unable to pass on the cost pressure due to moderation in demand in the wake of higher inflation. This has led to cement sector underperforming broader markets.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is week due to sector headwind, result season kicking on and market volatility.

2. Automobile
Reasons to Avoid:
India's automotive industry has urged the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas to lean on gas companies to reduce prices after the Centre had stepped in to boost domestic supplies of the fuel. In the wake of the 50-60% increase in gas prices over the past 12 months, CNG car sales bookings were declining 10-15%. Hence, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers Association wrote to the ministry earlier in the month, seeking its intervention.

Next Week Outlook
Market looks overbought. Stay cautious as correction is expected.

1. Automobile
Reasons to Avoid:
India's automotive industry has urged the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas to lean on gas companies to reduce prices after the Centre had stepped in to boost domestic supplies of the fuel. In the wake of the 50-60% increase in gas prices over the past 12 months, CNG car sales bookings were declining 10-15%. Hence, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers Association wrote to the ministry earlier in the month, seeking its intervention.

Next Week Outlook
Market looks overbought. Stay cautious as correction is expected.

2. Information Technology
Reasons to Avoid:
India's top IT services firms are freezing or cutting staff bonuses, worried that tightening budgets at US and European clients who are bracing for a recession will sharply hit their own profits after a pandemic-led boom. Bigger pay packets have been among factors putting pressure on margins. Growing conviction over businesses that they need to prepare for recession. This is short term headwind over sector.

Next Week Outlook
Market looks overbought. Stay cautious as correction is expected.

1. Jewellery
Reasons to Avoid:
According to the report, the customs duty hike is likely to lead to higher gold prices for end consumers and may curtail demand in terms of volume, which is likely to fall by 5 per cent this fiscal to 550 tonnes. In the year-ago period, the same stood at 580 tonnes. the hike in customs duty on gold by 5 per cent to 12.5 per cent on June 30 is likely to result in flat revenue growth for gold jewellery retailers in the current financial year compared to the exceptional demand witnessed in the year-ago period. Higher gold prices will compensate for the volume loss and ensure the industry's revenue remains flat compared to last year, operating margins would be impacted.

Next Week Outlook
Next week outlook for the segment is weak.

2. Cement
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports, the cement sector is likely to witness a glut of new supplies over the next three to four years (i.e. at 7.2% CAGR) based on the recent capex plan announced by major cement companies. Assuming some delays, we still expect supply CAGR of 6-6.5% vs. historical average of 4.4%. This would lead to fresh rounds of consolidation especially in the mid and small sized cement players having high cost structure/bloated b/s. The near-term cost headwinds have already pressurised margins as player are unable to pass on the cost pressure due to moderation in demand in the wake of higher inflation. This has led to cement sector underperforming broader markets.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is week due to sector headwind, result season kicking on and market volatility.

1. Fertilizers
Reasons to Consider:
As per reports, India plans to secure fertiliser supplies and hedge against price rises by expanding its footprint in mineral-rich countries through investments and multi-year import deals. The chase for supply security comes as prices of key crop nutrients such as urea, potash and Di-ammonium Phosphate (DAP) have jumped to records following sanctions on key producers such as Belarus and Russia and lower supplies from Morocco and China. The world's second biggest producer of wheat and rice relies mostly on annual import deals and spot purchases to meet rising demand for fertilisers from its agriculture sector, which accounts for 15% of an economy of more than $3 trillion. Indian firms are looking to buy stakes in phosphoric acid mines in Senegal and DAP mines in Saudi Arabia and similar assets in Africa and Canada.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is flat.

2. Tyre
Reasons to Consider:
The centre has extended the anti-dumping duty on import of bus and truck tyres from China by three months. In a gazette notification, it was stated that the anti-dumping duty imposed in September 2017, for a period of five years, will now be in force till December 2022. Adoption of electric vehicles (EV) is expected to gather pace over the next few years. Accordingly, the companies are gearing up to cater to demand both in passenger vehicle and two-wheeler segments.

Next Week Outlook
Next week outlook is stable with profit booking in few scripts after an uptrend since the last few sessions.

1. Wire and Cable
Reasons to Consider:
Macro environment remains a challenge due to global economy headwinds, volatility in input prices, strained supply chain and consumer inflation. Though as per current development following factors aid growth to the sector- 1. cool down of copper and oil prices 2. demand is coming back to pre covid level for applied industries in cable & wire segment. Most of market leaders are focusing on widening distribution network to gain market share.

Next Week Outlook
Next week outlook for the sector is stable after some profit booking in market.

2. Consumer Goods- Electronics
Reasons to Consider:
Price hike and improved product mix drives gross margin. Indian EMS industry is valued at ~$23.5 billion Domestic mobile production is set to grow 5x to | 10.5 lakh crore by FY26 under the PLI scheme . New segments such as electronics/IT products, telecom products and LED lights & AC component to drive future revenue growth. Short term demand for the sector is weak due to microeconomic headwind.

Next Week Outlook
Next week outlook for the sector is flat on no major short term driver though its an opportunity for long term.

1. Auto Ancillary
Reasons to Consider:
In FY22, 31 auto ancillary companies with cumulative revenues of over Rs 1,75,000 crore registered a 23% YoY growth in revenues, driven by domestic original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), replacement, export volumes, and pass-through of commodity prices. As per ICRA, Auto ancillaries' revenues are expected to grow 8-10% in 2022-23 on the back of stable demand and likely easing of supply-chain concerns in the second half of the year.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is stable. Technically- the Auto ancillary industry looks strong. Based on moving averages, it looks strong on daily, weekly, and monthly moving averages.

2. Steel
Reasons to Consider:
Global steel production in the first quarter of 2022 declined 5.9% compared to last year. The decline was largely due to lower production in China, the largest steel-producing country in the world, as well as lower production in Europe. Lower steel production by China and the Russia-Ukraine conflict will create a demand-supply imbalance globally, especially in Europe, creating an opportunity for India to expand its export to Europe, Middle East, and the US in the long run. As per JSW Steel, global steel consumption is expected to remain relatively unchanged and increase marginally in FY22 and grow in the low-single digits in FY23.

Next Week Outlook
Technically, the Steel industry is showing an upward trend after a brief consolidation. Next week's outlook is positive.

1. Footwear
Reasons to Consider:
Sector sees improved consumer sentiments aided net sales growth. Companies witnessed significant improvement in customer sentiments from February, 22, particularly in sneakers, formals and fashion segments. Companys increased presence on digital platform and focus on prudent cost optimization would pave the way for sustainable earnings growth in future.

Next Week Outlook
Next week outlook for footwear segment is stable as market is reacting on few positive global cues.

2. Jewellery
Reason to Consider
:
According to the report, the customs duty hike is likely to lead to higher gold prices for end consumers and may curtail demand in terms of volume, which is likely to fall by 5 per cent this fiscal to 550 tonnes. In the year-ago period, the same stood at 580 tonnes. the hike in customs duty on gold by 5 per cent to 12.5 per cent on June 30 is likely to result in flat revenue growth for gold jewellery retailers in the current financial year compared to the exceptional demand witnessed in the year-ago period. Higher gold prices will compensate for the volume loss and ensure the industry's revenue remains flat compared to last year, operating margins would be impacted.

Next Week Outlook
Next week outlook for the segment is weak.

1. Cement
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports, the cement sector is likely to witness a glut of new supplies over the next three to four years (i.e. at 7.2% CAGR) based on the recent capex plan announced by major cement companies. Assuming some delays, we still expect supply CAGR of 6-6.5% vs. historical average of 4.4%. This would lead to fresh rounds of consolidation especially in the mid and small sized cement players having high cost structure/bloated b/s. The near-term cost headwinds have already pressurised margins as player are unable to pass on the cost pressure due to moderation in demand in the wake of higher inflation. This has led to cement sector underperforming broader markets.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is week due to sector headwind, result season kicking on and market volatility.

2. Information Technology
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports, India's top IT companies have started reporting Q1FY23 earnings. IT service companies have reported modest revenue growth in the first quarter as supply-side pressures including wage increments, onsite wage inflation and travel costs loom large. Cross-currency headwinds will also impact earnings on concerns of an impending recession in the United States, the largest market for Indian IT firms.IT companies have rolled out wage increments in the first quarter, which will impact margins. The IT industry continues to battle unprecedented levels of attrition. Midcap IT services firms are expected to perform marginally better than Tier 1 peers. An increase in the hiring of freshers over the past quarters is expected to weigh on utilisation and margins.

Next Week Outlook
IT is in a long term downtrend and showing no strength. Currently it's trading below its resistance level. Until and unless it crosses and sustains above its resistance level, and makes a higher high and higher low, one should avoid to invest in IT.

1. Information Technology
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports, India's top IT companies are expected to report Q1fY23 earnings in coming days. IT service providers are expected to report modest revenue growth in the first quarter as supply-side pressures including wage increments, onsite wage inflation and travel costs loom large. Cross-currency headwinds will also impact earnings on concerns of an impending recession in the United States, the largest market for Indian IT firms.IT companies have rolled out wage increments in the first quarter, which will impact margins. The IT industry continues to battle unprecedented levels of attrition.Midcap IT services firms are expected to perform marginally better than Tier 1 peers. An increase in the hiring of freshers over the past quarters is expected to weigh on utilisation and margins.

Next Week Outlook
IT is in a long term downtrend and showing no strength. Currently it's trading below its resistance level. Until and unless it crosses and sustains above its resistance level, and makes a higher high and higher low, one should avoid to invest in IT.

2. FMCG
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports, The June quarter, however, saw growth of 14% due to a low base last year, stemming from the Covid second wave-led demand impact. Over the past year, shrinkflation, or reduction in pack sizes without lowering prices, has helped companies post value growth as volume declined. Indias fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market fell 1% in value in June from May. This is the second consecutive decline for FMCG, according to the latest report by Bizom and industry estimates. Experts feel higher prices have started to impact consumption to a level where both value and volume have been hit. This could reverse as commodity prices have started to ebb globally. The prices of edible oils are cooling off with supply starting to normalise and the government is trying to rein in the prices of wheat, rice, fuel, etc. This could help reduce pressure on FMCG companies to refocus on consumption growth and move away from the existing level of price-led growth.

Next Week Outlook
FMCG had a strong week moving up by 5% this week. FMCG had a trendline breakout at a lower level and then managed to move up considerably this week. Currently FMCG might lose its steam and consolidate around current levels as most of the oscillators are in little overbought levels.

1. Auto Ancillary
Reasons to Consider:
In FY22, 31 auto ancillary companies with cumulative revenues of over Rs 1,75,000 crore registered a 23% YoY growth in revenues, driven by domestic original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), replacement, export volumes, and pass-through of commodity prices. As per ICRA, Auto ancillaries' revenues are expected to grow 8-10% in 2022-23 on the back of stable demand and likely easing of supply-chain concerns in the second half of the year.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is stable. Technically- the Auto ancillary industry looks strong. It had a trendline break out. There is a slight throwback and might come down to 11200 which is a good level to accumulate. Based on moving averages, it looks strong on daily, weekly, and monthly moving averages.

2. Steel
Reasons to Consider:
Global steel production in the first quarter of 2022 declined 5.9% compared to last year. The decline was largely due to lower production in China, the largest steel-producing country in the world, as well as lower production in Europe. Lower steel production by China and the Russia-Ukraine conflict will create a demand-supply imbalance globally, especially in Europe, creating an opportunity for India to expand its export to Europe, Middle East, and the US in the long run. As per JSW Steel, global steel consumption is expected to remain relatively unchanged and increase marginally in FY22 and grow in the low-single digits in FY23.

Next Week Outlook
Technically, the Steel industry is showing weakness after a brief consolidation. It has broken down its support level. It is making lower lows and lower highs. Based on moving averages it is weak on daily, weekly, and monthly charts.

1. Cement
Reasons to Avoid:
Cement sector is going for huge capacity expansion by the majority of big players. This capacity addition is more than the demand leading to lower plant utilization in next two years. Cost inflation in raw materials vs low price hike would weaken EBITDA margin of the companies. Final verdict on CCI penalty, where amount equals to 26-95% of PAT can go against the companies.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is weak. Technically- Cement sector has corrected a lot from 52 week's high.There is no stable support for the cement sector as of now. All major stocks like Ultra tech, ACC, Ambuja and Dalmia Bharat are in mid term down trend along with volume uptick.

2. Consumer Durable
Reasons to Avoid:
Demand recovery is seen in cooling items as sales of AC, Refrigerator jumps, as per CROMA's "unboxed Summer 2022" report. Though this demand may get affected as prices for consumer durables have increased by 3-5% in June. because manufacturers intend to pass on the rise in cost of raw material to end users.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is weak. Technically - Consumer durable as a whole is looking weak. The only stick that stands out is Voltas. Other stocks have corrected brutally along with huge volume and there is no signs of support.

1. Aviation
Reasons to Avoid:
Airline capacity utilization is coming back on track to pre covid level slowly. Airlines are generating cash again which is positive for a long time. During the pandemic airlines laid off thousands of workers. Airlines are facing problems in short term led by the cancellation of flights, delays caused by a shortage of employees, and strikes for better pay. Also, demand may get impacted due to the Ukraine war and a 25%-30% rise in the air-fuel price.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is weak for the sector.

2. Information Technology
Reasons to Consider:
The impact of inflation is experienced differently in IT service providers. Top IT firms are expected to gain from cost optimization - led in outsourcing work from inflation-hit US and EU countries to India. Rupee depreciation which is an all-time time high will also benefit Indian IT firms.

Next Week Outlook
Sector to remain volatile next week as well due to overall market volatility.

1. Paint
Reasons to Avoid:
Most of the paint companies got hit by inflation in raw material prices. Companies have passed on the rise in raw material costs to end products. Also, new players coming in with huge CAPEX would create competition for established players. The rise in the price of the organized players has shifted the demand for unorganized players. Also, rice rise will result in gross margin erosion.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is weak on the back of market volatility.

2. Banking
Reasons to Consider:
Banks take cues from RBI and raise their lending rate. These banks raised their respective external benchmark lending rates (EBLR) by 50 basis points (bps), matching the latest increase in the repo, or the rate at which RBI lends short-term funds to commercial banks. Banks with a healthy CASA ratio and asset quality would benefit from this move.

Next Week Outlook
Most of the stocks have corrected in price and valuation. Next week the trend is expected to the flat.

1. Engineering Goods
Reasons to Consider:
The government announced India removed import duty on raw materials used in steel to become more competitive in global markets. This move would benefit engineering goods manufacturers and exporters from India. This move will lower the cost of domestic production and the prices. Also, the imposition of export duty on iron ore and hos of steel intermediaries would boost the availability of domestic key industry input. Healthy order inflow is seen on the sectoral front. Steel prices are expected to fall by 10% followed by a slight correction in fuel prices which in turn improve the cost and profitability of the sector.

Next Week Outlook
As last week's trend was flat, this week we can expect a slight upside.

2. Travel and Hospitality
Reasons to Consider:
Leisure travel is coming back to pre covid level of 2019 even though air tickets up by 18%. Flight booking is also back to pre covid level. Short and medium-haul flights are up 25% and 27% in April over the same period in 2019. On pent-up demand hotel occupancy is back to pre covid level as well.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is positive for the hospitality sector.

1. Automotive
Reasons to Consider:
Demand for commercial vehicles - a barometer of economic activity is expected to post robust growth despite inflationary concerns, which has prompted the World Bank and IMF to revise downwards their growth projections for India in the ongoing fiscal year. Along with this, fuel prices are slashed which will benefit the auto sector in coming weeks.

Next Week Outlook
Next week is expected to be better considering the sector progress.

2. Consumer Products
Reasons to Consider:
Rising inflation forced companies to increase prices of the products. Rise in prices are getting passed on to the end user. Most of the FMCG companies are trying to maintain the prices by reducing the weight of the products. This strategy might help both sides of the coin.

Next Week Outlook
Next week might remain volatile as the roll out of the above strategy might take a little longer but the ultimate outlook will be positive.

3. Refineries
Reason to avoid:
The government's move to cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs.8 per litre and Rs.6 per litre, respectively, has dealt a financial blow to fuel retailers who are already dealing with a curtailed fuel supply from refiners.

Next Week Outlook
Sector is expected to underperform in coming weeks as price hike is little far from now.

1. Defense Shipyard
Reasons to Consider:
Defense shipyard CAPEX is pegged at Rs 4.5 trn. Companies are rapidly concluding critical projects. And few are planning to repair ship repair income.

Next Week Outlook
The sector is like;y to perform on a stable note next week.

2. Hospitality
Reasons to Consider:
All India RevPAR improved substantially and touched 76% of pre covid levels FY22. Recovery in RevPAR was strongly supported by revival in demand/ occupancy in Leisure and / business segment.

Next Week Outlook
As a result sesion kicked in next week's outlook is expected to be positive.

3. Metals
Reasons to Consider:
Lockdown in China and lower commodity production resulted in a demand-supply crunch across the globe. Indian metal-producing companies would benefit from this equation.

Next Week Outlook
The metal sector outlook is positive.

1. Real Estate
Reasons to Consider:
Housing sales jumped nearly 13% Q-o-Q to more than 70,000 units in Q1 2022 and sales rebounded significantly by approximately 40% Y-o-Y, as the residential sector is poised for unprecedented growth, according to a CBRE report.

Next Week Outlook
Exponential surge in take home salaries of a few selected segments has given a boost to the real estate segment as well. This trend is expected to sustain in the coming days.

2. IT- Business Process Management
Reasons to Consider:
The Information Technology-Business Process Management (IT-BPM) sector is expected to clock a cumulative leasing of 100 million sq ft by 2026. Sector has been absorbing large office spaces through the last decade and a half. Its current share is estimated at more than 50% of the total office space leased in the last 5 years.

Next Week Outlook
Sector is expected to do well in the coming week.

3. NBFC
Reasons to Consider:
Various funding arrangements entered by non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are set to come under scrutiny of auditors with effect from FY22 audit that starts in the next few weeks.

Next Week Avoid
NBFCs already had a major hit during covid and expected to be on same lines for some more time.

1. Automobile
Reasons to Avoid:
Auto loan EMIs are likely to go up after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked its key interest rate by 40 bps in an unexpected move on Wednesday to tame the rising inflation that has remained stubbornly above target in the recent months.

Next Week Outlook
Sector is expected to be on the lower side in the coming time.

2. IT- Business Process Management
Reasons to Consider:
The Information Technology-Business Process Management (IT-BPM) sector is expected to clock a cumulative leasing of 100 million sq ft by 2026. Sector has been absorbing large office spaces through the last decade and a half. Its current share is estimated at more than 50% of the total office space leased in the last 5 years.

Next Week Outlook
Sector is expected to do well in the coming week.

3. Real Estate
Reasons to Avoid:
Auto loan EMIs are likely to go up after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked its key interest rate by 40 bps in an unexpected move on Wednesday to tame the rising inflation that has remained stubbornly above target in the recent months.

Next Week Outlook
Sector will remain under pressure as a few rate hikes are on cards in coming policies.

4. Jewellery and Precious Metals
Reasons to Consider:
Jewellers of Kolkata are happy on the auspicious day of Akshaya Tritiya to witness a footfall jump of 30-40 per cent compared to normal days as soaring inflation, the Ukraine crisis, besides religious sentiments, influenced people to purchase gold and bullion as assets. Shops this year ordered calendars and sweetmeats for guests which were absent in the last two years owing to the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns.

Next Week Outlook
Sector is expected to do well as the Ukraine crisis might stay a little longer.