Weekly Sector Updates

Weekly Market Updates BSE NSE

Weekly Sector Update For August 2022: 1st Week

1. Wire and Cable
Reasons to Consider:
Macro environment remains a challenge due to global economy headwinds, volatility in input prices, strained supply chain and consumer inflation. Though as per current development following factors aid growth to the sector- 1. cool down of copper and oil prices 2. demand is coming back to pre covid level for applied industries in cable & wire segment. Most of market leaders are focusing on widening distribution network to gain market share.

Next Week Outlook
Next week outlook for the sector is stable after some profit booking in market.

2. Consumer Goods- Electronics
Reasons to Consider:
Price hike and improved product mix drives gross margin. Indian EMS industry is valued at ~$23.5 billion Domestic mobile production is set to grow 5x to | 10.5 lakh crore by FY26 under the PLI scheme . New segments such as electronics/IT products, telecom products and LED lights & AC component to drive future revenue growth. Short term demand for the sector is weak due to microeconomic headwind.

Next Week Outlook
Next week outlook for the sector is flat on no major short term driver though its an opportunity for long term.

Weekly Sector Update For July 2022: 5th Week

1. Auto Ancillary
Reasons to Consider:
In FY22, 31 auto ancillary companies with cumulative revenues of over Rs 1,75,000 crore registered a 23% YoY growth in revenues, driven by domestic original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), replacement, export volumes, and pass-through of commodity prices. As per ICRA, Auto ancillaries' revenues are expected to grow 8-10% in 2022-23 on the back of stable demand and likely easing of supply-chain concerns in the second half of the year.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is stable. Technically- the Auto ancillary industry looks strong. Based on moving averages, it looks strong on daily, weekly, and monthly moving averages.

2. Steel
Reasons to Consider:
Global steel production in the first quarter of 2022 declined 5.9% compared to last year. The decline was largely due to lower production in China, the largest steel-producing country in the world, as well as lower production in Europe. Lower steel production by China and the Russia-Ukraine conflict will create a demand-supply imbalance globally, especially in Europe, creating an opportunity for India to expand its export to Europe, Middle East, and the US in the long run. As per JSW Steel, global steel consumption is expected to remain relatively unchanged and increase marginally in FY22 and grow in the low-single digits in FY23.

Next Week Outlook
Technically, the Steel industry is showing an upward trend after a brief consolidation. Next week's outlook is positive.

Weekly Sector Update For July 2022: 4th Week

1. Footwear
Reasons to Consider:
Sector sees improved consumer sentiments aided net sales growth. Companies witnessed significant improvement in customer sentiments from February, 22, particularly in sneakers, formals and fashion segments. Companys increased presence on digital platform and focus on prudent cost optimization would pave the way for sustainable earnings growth in future.

Next Week Outlook
Next week outlook for footwear segment is stable as market is reacting on few positive global cues.

2. Jewellery
Reason to Consider
:

According to the report, the customs duty hike is likely to lead to higher gold prices for end consumers and may curtail demand in terms of volume, which is likely to fall by 5 per cent this fiscal to 550 tonnes. In the year-ago period, the same stood at 580 tonnes. the hike in customs duty on gold by 5 per cent to 12.5 per cent on June 30 is likely to result in flat revenue growth for gold jewellery retailers in the current financial year compared to the exceptional demand witnessed in the year-ago period. Higher gold prices will compensate for the volume loss and ensure the industry's revenue remains flat compared to last year, operating margins would be impacted.

Next Week Outlook
Next week outlook for the segment is weak.

Weekly Sector Update For July 2022: 3nd Week

1. Cement
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports, the cement sector is likely to witness a glut of new supplies over the next three to four years (i.e. at 7.2% CAGR) based on the recent capex plan announced by major cement companies. Assuming some delays, we still expect supply CAGR of 6-6.5% vs. historical average of 4.4%. This would lead to fresh rounds of consolidation especially in the mid and small sized cement players having high cost structure/bloated b/s. The near-term cost headwinds have already pressurised margins as player are unable to pass on the cost pressure due to moderation in demand in the wake of higher inflation. This has led to cement sector underperforming broader markets.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is week due to sector headwind, result season kicking on and market volatility.

2. Information Technology
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports, India's top IT companies have started reporting Q1FY23 earnings. IT service companies have reported modest revenue growth in the first quarter as supply-side pressures including wage increments, onsite wage inflation and travel costs loom large. Cross-currency headwinds will also impact earnings on concerns of an impending recession in the United States, the largest market for Indian IT firms.IT companies have rolled out wage increments in the first quarter, which will impact margins. The IT industry continues to battle unprecedented levels of attrition. Midcap IT services firms are expected to perform marginally better than Tier 1 peers. An increase in the hiring of freshers over the past quarters is expected to weigh on utilisation and margins.

Next Week Outlook
IT is in a long term downtrend and showing no strength. Currently it's trading below its resistance level. Until and unless it crosses and sustains above its resistance level, and makes a higher high and higher low, one should avoid to invest in IT.

Weekly Sector Update For July 2022: 2nd Week

1. Information Technology
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports, India's top IT companies are expected to report Q1fY23 earnings in coming days. IT service providers are expected to report modest revenue growth in the first quarter as supply-side pressures including wage increments, onsite wage inflation and travel costs loom large. Cross-currency headwinds will also impact earnings on concerns of an impending recession in the United States, the largest market for Indian IT firms.IT companies have rolled out wage increments in the first quarter, which will impact margins. The IT industry continues to battle unprecedented levels of attrition.Midcap IT services firms are expected to perform marginally better than Tier 1 peers. An increase in the hiring of freshers over the past quarters is expected to weigh on utilisation and margins.

Next Week Outlook
IT is in a long term downtrend and showing no strength. Currently it's trading below its resistance level. Until and unless it crosses and sustains above its resistance level, and makes a higher high and higher low, one should avoid to invest in IT.

2. FMCG
Reasons to Avoid:
As per reports, The June quarter, however, saw growth of 14% due to a low base last year, stemming from the Covid second wave-led demand impact. Over the past year, shrinkflation, or reduction in pack sizes without lowering prices, has helped companies post value growth as volume declined. Indias fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market fell 1% in value in June from May. This is the second consecutive decline for FMCG, according to the latest report by Bizom and industry estimates. Experts feel higher prices have started to impact consumption to a level where both value and volume have been hit. This could reverse as commodity prices have started to ebb globally. The prices of edible oils are cooling off with supply starting to normalise and the government is trying to rein in the prices of wheat, rice, fuel, etc. This could help reduce pressure on FMCG companies to refocus on consumption growth and move away from the existing level of price-led growth.

Next Week Outlook
FMCG had a strong week moving up by 5% this week. FMCG had a trendline breakout at a lower level and then managed to move up considerably this week. Currently FMCG might lose its steam and consolidate around current levels as most of the oscillators are in little overbought levels.

Weekly Sector Update For July 2022: 1st Week

1. Auto Ancillary
Reasons to Consider:
In FY22, 31 auto ancillary companies with cumulative revenues of over Rs 1,75,000 crore registered a 23% YoY growth in revenues, driven by domestic original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), replacement, export volumes, and pass-through of commodity prices. As per ICRA, Auto ancillaries' revenues are expected to grow 8-10% in 2022-23 on the back of stable demand and likely easing of supply-chain concerns in the second half of the year.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is stable. Technically- the Auto ancillary industry looks strong. It had a trendline break out. There is a slight throwback and might come down to 11200 which is a good level to accumulate. Based on moving averages, it looks strong on daily, weekly, and monthly moving averages.

2. Steel
Reasons to Consider:
Global steel production in the first quarter of 2022 declined 5.9% compared to last year. The decline was largely due to lower production in China, the largest steel-producing country in the world, as well as lower production in Europe. Lower steel production by China and the Russia-Ukraine conflict will create a demand-supply imbalance globally, especially in Europe, creating an opportunity for India to expand its export to Europe, Middle East, and the US in the long run. As per JSW Steel, global steel consumption is expected to remain relatively unchanged and increase marginally in FY22 and grow in the low-single digits in FY23.

Next Week Outlook
Technically, the Steel industry is showing weakness after a brief consolidation. It has broken down its support level. It is making lower lows and lower highs. Based on moving averages it is weak on daily, weekly, and monthly charts.

Weekly Sector Update For June 2022: 4th Week

1. Cement
Reasons to Avoid:
Cement sector is going for huge capacity expansion by the majority of big players. This capacity addition is more than the demand leading to lower plant utilization in next two years. Cost inflation in raw materials vs low price hike would weaken EBITDA margin of the companies. Final verdict on CCI penalty, where amount equals to 26-95% of PAT can go against the companies.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is weak. Technically- Cement sector has corrected a lot from 52 week's high.There is no stable support for the cement sector as of now. All major stocks like Ultra tech, ACC, Ambuja and Dalmia Bharat are in mid term down trend along with volume uptick.

2. Consumer Durable
Reasons to Avoid:
Demand recovery is seen in cooling items as sales of AC, Refrigerator jumps, as per CROMA's "unboxed Summer 2022" report. Though this demand may get affected as prices for consumer durables have increased by 3-5% in June. because manufacturers intend to pass on the rise in cost of raw material to end users.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is weak. Technically - Consumer durable as a whole is looking weak. The only stick that stands out is Voltas. Other stocks have corrected brutally along with huge volume and there is no signs of support.

Weekly Sector Update For June 2022: 3rd Week

1. Aviation
Reasons to Avoid:
Airline capacity utilization is coming back on track to pre covid level slowly. Airlines are generating cash again which is positive for a long time. During the pandemic airlines laid off thousands of workers. Airlines are facing problems in short term led by the cancellation of flights, delays caused by a shortage of employees, and strikes for better pay. Also, demand may get impacted due to the Ukraine war and a 25%-30% rise in the air-fuel price.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is weak for the sector.

2. Information Technology
Reasons to Consider:
The impact of inflation is experienced differently in IT service providers. Top IT firms are expected to gain from cost optimization - led in outsourcing work from inflation-hit US and EU countries to India. Rupee depreciation which is an all-time time high will also benefit Indian IT firms.

Next Week Outlook
Sector to remain volatile next week as well due to overall market volatility.

Weekly Sector Update For June 2022: 2nd Week

1. Paint
Reasons to Avoid:
Most of the paint companies got hit by inflation in raw material prices. Companies have passed on the rise in raw material costs to end products. Also, new players coming in with huge CAPEX would create competition for established players. The rise in the price of the organized players has shifted the demand for unorganized players. Also, rice rise will result in gross margin erosion.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is weak on the back of market volatility.

2. Banking
Reasons to Consider:
Banks take cues from RBI and raise their lending rate. These banks raised their respective external benchmark lending rates (EBLR) by 50 basis points (bps), matching the latest increase in the repo, or the rate at which RBI lends short-term funds to commercial banks. Banks with a healthy CASA ratio and asset quality would benefit from this move.

Next Week Outlook
Most of the stocks have corrected in price and valuation. Next week the trend is expected to the flat.

Weekly Sector Update For June 2022: 1st Week

1. Engineering Goods
Reasons to Consider:
The government announced India removed import duty on raw materials used in steel to become more competitive in global markets. This move would benefit engineering goods manufacturers and exporters from India. This move will lower the cost of domestic production and the prices. Also, the imposition of export duty on iron ore and hos of steel intermediaries would boost the availability of domestic key industry input. Healthy order inflow is seen on the sectoral front. Steel prices are expected to fall by 10% followed by a slight correction in fuel prices which in turn improve the cost and profitability of the sector.

Next Week Outlook
As last week's trend was flat, this week we can expect a slight upside.

2. Travel and Hospitality
Reasons to Consider:
Leisure travel is coming back to pre covid level of 2019 even though air tickets up by 18%. Flight booking is also back to pre covid level. Short and medium-haul flights are up 25% and 27% in April over the same period in 2019. On pent-up demand hotel occupancy is back to pre covid level as well.

Next Week Outlook
Next week's outlook is positive for the hospitality sector.

Weekly Sector Update For May 2022: 4th Week

1. Automotive
Reasons to Consider:
Demand for commercial vehicles - a barometer of economic activity is expected to post robust growth despite inflationary concerns, which has prompted the World Bank and IMF to revise downwards their growth projections for India in the ongoing fiscal year. Along with this, fuel prices are slashed which will benefit the auto sector in coming weeks.

Next Week Outlook
Next week is expected to be better considering the sector progress.

2. Consumer Products
Reasons to Consider:
Rising inflation forced companies to increase prices of the products. Rise in prices are getting passed on to the end user. Most of the FMCG companies are trying to maintain the prices by reducing the weight of the products. This strategy might help both sides of the coin.

Next Week Outlook
Next week might remain volatile as the roll out of the above strategy might take a little longer but the ultimate outlook will be positive.

3. Refineries
Reason to avoid:
The government's move to cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs.8 per litre and Rs.6 per litre, respectively, has dealt a financial blow to fuel retailers who are already dealing with a curtailed fuel supply from refiners.

Next Week Outlook
Sector is expected to underperform in coming weeks as price hike is little far from now.

Weekly Sector Update For May 2022: 3rd Week

1. Defense Shipyard
Reasons to Consider:
Defense shipyard CAPEX is pegged at Rs 4.5 trn. Companies are rapidly concluding critical projects. And few are planning to repair ship repair income.

Next Week Outlook
The sector is like;y to perform on a stable note next week.

2. Hospitality
Reasons to Consider:
All India RevPAR improved substantially and touched 76% of pre covid levels FY22. Recovery in RevPAR was strongly supported by revival in demand/ occupancy in Leisure and / business segment.

Next Week Outlook
As a result sesion kicked in next week's outlook is expected to be positive.

3. Metals
Reasons to Consider:
Lockdown in China and lower commodity production resulted in a demand-supply crunch across the globe. Indian metal-producing companies would benefit from this equation.

Next Week Outlook
The metal sector outlook is positive.

Weekly Sector Update For May 2022: 2nd Week

1. Real Estate
Reasons to Consider:
Housing sales jumped nearly 13% Q-o-Q to more than 70,000 units in Q1 2022 and sales rebounded significantly by approximately 40% Y-o-Y, as the residential sector is poised for unprecedented growth, according to a CBRE report.

Next Week Outlook
Exponential surge in take home salaries of a few selected segments has given a boost to the real estate segment as well. This trend is expected to sustain in the coming days.

2. IT- Business Process Management
Reasons to Consider:
The Information Technology-Business Process Management (IT-BPM) sector is expected to clock a cumulative leasing of 100 million sq ft by 2026. Sector has been absorbing large office spaces through the last decade and a half. Its current share is estimated at more than 50% of the total office space leased in the last 5 years.

Next Week Outlook
Sector is expected to do well in the coming week.

3. NBFC
Reasons to Consider:
Various funding arrangements entered by non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are set to come under scrutiny of auditors with effect from FY22 audit that starts in the next few weeks.

Next Week Avoid
NBFCs already had a major hit during covid and expected to be on same lines for some more time.

Weekly Sector Update For May 2022: 1st Week

1. Automobile
Reasons to Avoid:
Auto loan EMIs are likely to go up after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked its key interest rate by 40 bps in an unexpected move on Wednesday to tame the rising inflation that has remained stubbornly above target in the recent months.

Next Week Outlook
Sector is expected to be on the lower side in the coming time.

2. IT- Business Process Management
Reasons to Consider:
The Information Technology-Business Process Management (IT-BPM) sector is expected to clock a cumulative leasing of 100 million sq ft by 2026. Sector has been absorbing large office spaces through the last decade and a half. Its current share is estimated at more than 50% of the total office space leased in the last 5 years.

Next Week Outlook
Sector is expected to do well in the coming week.

3. Real Estate
Reasons to Avoid:
Auto loan EMIs are likely to go up after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked its key interest rate by 40 bps in an unexpected move on Wednesday to tame the rising inflation that has remained stubbornly above target in the recent months.

Next Week Outlook
Sector will remain under pressure as a few rate hikes are on cards in coming policies.

4. Jewellery and Precious Metals
Reasons to Consider:
Jewellers of Kolkata are happy on the auspicious day of Akshaya Tritiya to witness a footfall jump of 30-40 per cent compared to normal days as soaring inflation, the Ukraine crisis, besides religious sentiments, influenced people to purchase gold and bullion as assets. Shops this year ordered calendars and sweetmeats for guests which were absent in the last two years owing to the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns.

Next Week Outlook
Sector is expected to do well as the Ukraine crisis might stay a little longer.

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