14th Jun 2019 | 16:53 PM IST

Market Still Awaits For Positive Trigger, Expect A Bumpy Ride Ahead

Our Analysis

The week was just like a pendulum swing for the market. The benchmark indices were seen trading the narrow zone during the week. Post a big fall on last weekly expiry day the next three-day movement formed a Doji pattern for Nifty, indicating the indecisive sentiments of the market. The phenomena was further proved by bears on Wednesday which took Indian share market to the negative territory.

With the lack of buying trigger, the market was expected to trade in similar patterns in the negative zone, however positive IIP capped the losses resulting in a see-saw session on the charts. IIP grew to a 6-month high of 3.4 percent in April. This was largely on account of the improvement in mining and power generation. Though retail inflation has spiked to 3.05 percent but was in line with the RBI’s comfort levels which nullified its impacts.

Budget 2019, a big day for the Indian investors is on the line. Newly appointed finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman is about to present her maiden budget on July 5, 2019 which would follow the Interim budget presented earlier by NDA government in Feb 2019. Capital allocation talks have started taking shape in the wake of this along with which each class of the society eying on the tax rebates, both personal and corporate tax. Whereas sectors like agriculture, NBFCs, power, metal, startups, fitness and others are also looking for some good initiatives and support from Government of India. Stressed assets, recapitalization and digital transformation for the banking sector are also on the radar. Moreover, boost to make in India campaign, job creation, EV infrastructure subsidy, add-on capital allocation towards MGNREGS are among the key points to watch from the upcoming budget.

We expect increased fiscal spending on account of the farmer income support scheme. Moreover, announcements interrelated to real estate and infra sectors would be appreciated.

Going ahead, After a stiff correction in crude prices, the OMCS, paints and the crude related sector are looking attractive. A good monsoon is also expected to create an enthusiasm in fertilizer and agrochemical stock. Considering, technical aspects in the near term expect bears to control the D-street. However, the ’20 DMA’ is acting as strong support for Nifty which have been placed at 11830 levels. Nifty is most likely to form a descending triangle pattern, so any move below 11,830-40 could lead to a sharper fall and at the same time, any break out above 11,960 could lead the similar sharp move in the upside.

This Week’s Market Highlights:

Benchmark Indices:

1) On Monday, A highly volatile day closed indecisively, the Indian share market after a gap up opening traded between gains & losses. the Sensex grew by 168.62 points at 39784.52, while Nifty up by 52 points at 11922.70. Among sector IT, FMCG & Pharma closed in the green while, Media & banking were on selling side.
2) On Tuesday, The indices have been trading in the narrow range with no major trigger to act upon, however, the stock specific reaction on certain news was seen. Altogether the Sensex & Nifty logged the gains of 0.42 & 0.36 percent to close at 39,950.46 & 11,965.60. Among the sectors, buying was seen in the auto, bank, energy, metal, IT and infra, while FMCG ended marginally lower.
3) On Wednesday, the Indian share market after 3 indecisive trading session had taken a direction and started a run with a bear. the market was seen falling under its own weight is given that there are no major triggers on the domestic front. Therefore valuations are weighing on the bourses. Nifty50 which is trading at a P/e multiple of 29 times is the highest in decades. FIIs too have scaled down their purchases after the election verdict. All these factors along with negative international news took the d-street down and across the board, selling was witnessed in the market. Altogether at closing the Sensex was down 193.65 points at 39,756.81, while Nifty was down 59.40 points at 11,906.20.
4) On Thursday, In the last hour of trade, recovery in the banking stocks helped the market to close on a flat note. In the end, the Sensex declined by 15.45 points closing at 39,741.36, While nifty at 11,914.00. Among sector except for media, reality & specific financial stock, all other sectors closed in the red
5) On Friday, It was Flat to negative start of Indian share market.

Broader Index & Global Market:

- On the global front, The US market was on the run owing to optimism about an interest rate cut, The Asian market track the same and traded positive in this week

- In the broader market, The Mid & Small Cap was traded mixed with stock specific action likely to continue as crude related, Monsoon theme is likely to play in coming days.

Movers & Shakers

Shares of Manappuram Finance surged nearly 8 percent after the news of IFC, part of the World Bank group will invest $35 million (about ₹245 crore) in Manappuram Finance Ltd to help low-income households and small enterprises get access to loans against their gold assets.

Shares of YESBANK dropped more than 18 percent in a week after foreign brokerage, UBS cut its target on the stock to Rs 90 from Rs 170 earlier, a drop of 47 percent.

Key Market Drivers

  • US, Mexico reach an agreement to prevent tariffs: Donald Trump
  • Goldman Sachs forecasted FY20 Indian GDP growth accelerating to 7.2%
  • US leaves the door open to China on trade talks at G20 summit
  • NPAs plunge to 9.3% in FY19, deeper than RBI estimate: Crisil.
  • Govt may introduce a tax on cash withdrawal
  • Plan to privatize profitable PSUs in works
  • The Reserve Bank of India stated that it will infuse Rs 15,000 crore into the financial system through bond purchases on Thursday.
  • The cost for Fund transfers via RTGS, NEFT will be less from July 1.
  • OPEC is near the deal to keep production curbs in place - UAE energy minister.
  • India's retail inflation recorded up to 3.05% in May
  • India's industrial output (IIP) grew by 3.4 percent year-on-year (YoY) in April

Event Watch

International:

  • China Industrial Production YoY
  • Japan Industrial Prod YoY
  • EC CPI Core YoY
  • Bank of England Bank Rate
  • Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg
  • Markit US Mfg PMI

Domestic:

  • Crude price
  • INR Price

Stocks To Watch

BERGER PAINTS & REC On Upside while DHFL & AUROBINDO on Downside.

Share Market News 13-June-2019

Sensex recoups losses, trades flat; Nifty tests 11,900

Giving the direction, the bears took the charge in yesterday's trade, following that the Indian share market opened lower. The Sensex was down by 130.34 points at 39,626.47, while Nifty down by 39.70 points at 11,866.50. All the sectoral indices were trading in red led by IT, metal, infra, FMCG, bank, and auto.

In the afternoon session, the frontline indices extended there decline led by banking, IT & Pharma stock. The biggest casualties seen were the yes Bank shares plunged 9 percent and IndusInd Bank tanked 6 percent after global brokerage house UBS slashed price target sharply by 47 percent and 18 percent respectively, citing weak earnings going ahead. The Sensex was trading at 39,518 down by 238 & Nifty at 11,837. The pain was visible in the broader market as well with mid-cap & Small-cap down more than 1 percent.

In the last hour of trade, recovery in the banking stocks helped the market to close on a flat note. In the end, the Sensex declined by 15.45 points closing at 39,741.36, While nifty at 11,914.00. Among sector except for media, reality & specific financial stock, all other sectors closed in the red. The broader market also erased a part of its morning losses nevertheless closed with a decline of 0.24 & 0.63 percent in mid & small-cap. Going ahead important upcoming meetings like FED policy, GST council and US-China along with crude price trajectory will form the direction of the market.

Top Gainers

IBULHSGFIN by 11.86% to Rs 694.70 ,ZEEL by 2.95% to Rs 352.95,BPCL by 1.81% to Rs 387.90,GRASIM by 1.65% to Rs 903.00, KOTAKBANK by 1.39% to Rs 1,504.05.

Top Losers

YESBANK By -13.47% to Rs 116.60, INDUSINDBK by -4.62% to Rs 1,497.35, UPL by -1.70% to Rs 1.003.35, IOC by -1.32% to Rs 160.40., MARUTI by -1.20% to Rs. 6,770.00.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

IBULHSGFIN is the top gainer in today's market session, as soon as the news broke that Abhay Yadav, who had filed a petition against promoter Sameer Gehlaut and the company over alleged fund misappropriation, has withdrawn his case in the Supreme Court.

YESBANK is the top loser in today's market, after foreign brokerage, UBS cut its target on the stock to Rs 90 from Rs 170 earlier, a drop of 47 percent.

Key Market News

  • India's retail inflation recorded up to 3.05% in May
  • India’s industrial output (IIP) grew by 3.4 percent year-on-year (YoY) in April
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold Rs 1,050.43 crore worth of domestic stocks on Wednesday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 271.15 crore.

Stocks To Watch

HAVELLS is on the upside while APOLLOHOSP is on the downside.

HAVELLS is currently quoting at Rs.783.50 up by Rs 1.60 or 0.20% from its previous closing of Rs.781.90 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.797.40 on 10-JUN-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.520.10 on 28-JUN-2018. The buying interest in this stock from a couple of weeks is strong and likely to remain so in the coming day.

APOLLOHOSP is currently quoting at Rs.1,373.00 down by Rs.-8.75 or -0.63% from its previous closing of Rs.1,381.75 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 1.406.00 on 07-JUN-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 910.10 on 30-JUL-2018. The Stock is in overbought territory and likely to coll off going forward.

Share Market News 12-June-2019

Market Turns Choppy On Weak Global Cues And NBFC chaos

Tracking the negative global clues coupled with the cautious stance of investors ahead of CPI and IIP data the Indian share market opened in negative territory. The Sensex declined by 141.89 points at 39808.57, while Nifty was down by 45.10 points at 11,920.50. parallel with benchmark the broader market also remained under pressure with both Midcap and Smallcap indices opening in the red zone. Among the sectors, except metal and energy, all other indices were trading lower led by IT, pharma, auto, bank, and infra.

In the afternoon session, the selling got extended in the d-street. The heavyweight of banking and IT sector were dragging the market lower. The Sensex was 251 points down at 39,698 & Nifty was at 11,886.65. The broader market Mid & Small- Cap following the same was down by 0.42 & 0.08 percent. Among sector except for metal, all other sectors were trading in the red.

Indian share market after 3 indecisive trading session had taken a direction and started a run with a bear. the market was seen falling under its own weight is given that there are no major triggers on the domestic front. Therefore valuations are weighing on the bourses. Nifty50 which is trading at a P/e multiple of 29 times is the highest in decades. FIIs too have scaled down their purchases after the election verdict. All these factors along with negative international news took the d-street down and across the board, selling was witnessed in the market. Altogether at closing the Sensex was down 193.65 points at 39,756.81, while Nifty was down 59.40 points at 11,906.20. Among the sectors, except metal and FMCG all other indices ended lower led by pharma, auto, bank, energy, and infra. the broader market midcap and smallcap remained in the red zone throughout the session falling 0.79 and 0.24 respectively.

Top Gainers

TATASTEEL by 2.70% to Rs 505.80 ,GAIL by 1.39% to Rs 310.30,ONGC by 0.95% to Rs 170.85,VEDL by 0.71% to Rs 170.55, TCS by 0.50% to Rs 2,264.00.

Top Losers

IBULHSGFIN By -7.88% to Rs 621.40, YESBANK by -3.19% to Rs 135.10 , INFRATEL by -3.18% to Rs 274.15, TECHM by -1.78% to Rs 748.50., HEROMOTOCO by -1.66% to Rs. 2,730.00.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

TATASTEEL is the top gainer in today's market session, after the European Union's (EU) anti-trust authority on Tuesday blocked its merger with German industrial conglomerate ThyssenKrupp.

IBULHSGFIN is the top loser in today's market, After a plea was filed in the Supreme Court on Monday by Abhay Yadav seeking legal action against IBHFL, its Chairman and directors for alleged misappropriation of₹98,000 crore of public money.

Key Market News

  • The Reserve Bank of India stated that it will infuse Rs 15,000 crore into the financial system through bond purchases on Thursday.
  • The cost for Fund transfers via RTGS, NEFT will be less from July 1.
  • OPEC is near the deal to keep production curbs in place - UAE energy minister.
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought Rs 96 crore worth of domestic stocks on Tuesday, DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 151 crore.

Stocks To Watch

DCBBANK is on the upside while ESCORTS is on the downside..

DCBBANK is currently quoting at Rs.238.50 up by Rs 0.50 or 0.21% from its previous closing of Rs.238.00 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.242.00 on 10-JUN-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.139.85 on 01-OCT-2018. The stock is trading strong as compare to its peers and price action shows the strength that is likely to continue.

ESCORTS is currently quoting at Rs.575.35 down by Rs.-14.45 or -2.45% from its previous closing of Rs.589.80 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 943.55 on 31-JUL-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 541.00 on 08-OCT-2018. The Stock is trading weak on the charts as its likely to be a sell on a rising candidate.

Share Market News 11-June-2019

Nifty Extend Gains For Third Session; Metal shines

After logging gains for a second straight session on Monday, the Indian share market was once again on the upswing in-line with the Asian peers. However, the broader market continues to remain under pressure. Sensex rose by 139.13 points at 39923.65, while Nifty grew by 30.80 points at 11953.50. On sectoral gauges compiled by NSE advanced, led by the NSE Nifty Metal Index’s 0.56 percent advance. On the flipside, the NSE Nifty Realty Index was the top sectoral loser, down 0.59 percent.

The Indian share market was trading at a narrow range but managed to hold the gains in the afternoon session, The Sensex & nifty was trading at 39,906 & 11,954. Among sector metal, IT & Bank were on the green side, while Pharm & reality were trading in the red. The broder market was trading mixed with Mid-cap up by 0.27 percent and small-cap down by 0.09 percent.

In the last 3 trading session, the benchmark indices had a gap-up opening yet the closing has been indecisive. The indices have been trading in the narrow range with no major trigger to act upon, however, in today's trade stock specific reaction on certain news was seen. Altogether the Sensex & Nifty logged the gains of 0.42 & 0.36 percent to close at 39,950.46 & 11,965.60. Among the sectors, buying was seen in the auto, bank, energy, metal, IT and infra, while FMCG ended marginally lower. The broader market also closed positive with both the Midcap and Smallcap indices advancing 0.68% and 0.10% respectively.

Top Gainers

YESBANK by 2.83% to Rs 139.75 ,TATAMOTORS by 2.83% to Rs 170.90,INDUSINDBK by 2.73% to Rs 1,594.00,ZEEL by 2.70% to Rs 344.40, JSWSTEEL by 2.64% to Rs 273.90..

Top Losers

IBULHSGFIN By -8.07% to Rs 674.15, SUNPHARMA by -2.62% to Rs 391.50 , M&M by -1.62% to Rs 636.50, BPCL by -0.94% to Rs 386.00., TECHM by -0.81% to Rs. 762.00.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

YESBANK is the top gainer in today's market session, rating agency Moody’s placed Yes Bank Ltd under review for downgrade on Tuesday, citing the private-sector lender’s exposure to weak companies in the country’s financial sector, Yet the stock was the top performer in today’s trade.

IBULHSGFIN is the top loser in today's market, After a plea was filed in the Supreme Court on Monday by Abhay Yadav seeking legal action against IBHFL, its Chairman and directors for alleged misappropriation of₹98,000 crore of public money

Key Market News

  • Sebi moots informant mechanism to curb insider trading activities
  • NPAs plunge to 9.3% in FY19, deeper than RBI estimate: Crisil
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought Rs 216.20 crore worth of domestic stocks on Monday, DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 170.62 crore.
  • Govt may introduce a tax on cash withdrawal
  • Plan to privatize profitable PSUs in works

Stocks To Watch

INDIACEM is on the upside while AVADHSUGAR is on the downside.

INDIACEM is currently quoting at Rs.100.30 up by Rs 2.80 or 2.87% from its previous closing of Rs.97.50 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.128.00 on 31-AUG-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.74.75 on 12-FEB-2019. The stock has bounced back from its support levels and the stock is likely to move in the uptrend in coming days.

AVADHSUGAR is currently quoting at Rs.698.00 down by Rs.-18.05 or -2.52% from its previous closing of Rs.716.05 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 763.30 on 06-JUN-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 270.00 on 23-JUL-2018. The Stock is trading at the overbought level and likely to see the pullback in coming days.

Share Market News 10-June-2019

Tracking the Global Clues Nifty Tops 11,950; Tech shines

On the hopes of the Fed to cut interest rate amid the weak jobs data coupled with the US -Mexico trade war ease, the US market closed higher on Friday. Tracking that the Indian share market witnessed gap up opening, Sensex was up 296.45 points at 39,912.35, while Nifty was up by 86.10 points at 11,956.80. All the sectoral indices were trading in the green led by PSU bank, infra, IT, FMCG, auto, metal, and pharma.

In the afternoon session, The Indian share market has erased its morning gain with Sensex trading at 39,709 and Nifty at 11,899. The heavyweight HDFC Twins dragged the market lower. Among sector, IT, FMCG & pharma were trading higher While, PSU bank, Media & Reality were trading lower. The broader market also felt the heat with mid-cap down by 0.09 percent and small-cap by 0.52 percent.

A highly volatile day closed indecisively, the Indian share market after a gap up opening traded between gains & losses. the Sensex was up 168.62 points at 39784.52, while Nifty was up 52 points at 11922.70. Among sector IT, FMCG & Pharma closed in the green while, Media & banking were on selling side. The broader market staged a mixed performance the mid-cap was up 0.05 percent and small-cap were down by 0.52 percent. Going ahead, In absence of any major event, global cues combined with upcoming macroeconomic data would dictate the market trend.

Top Gainers

BRITANNIA by 3.47% to Rs 3,000.00 ,TECHM by 2.41% to Rs 768.85,TCS by 2.17% to Rs 2,229.10,DRREDDY by 1.95% to Rs 2,631.00, INFY by 1.88% to Rs 753.00.

Top Losers

BPCL By -3.26% to Rs 389.85, YESBANK by -2.43% to Rs 136.50 , COALINDIA by -2.22% to Rs 259.65, GAIL by -2.02% to Rs 307.50., IOC by -1.62% to Rs. 161.15.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

BRITANNIA is the top gainer in today's market session, the stock witnessed healthy buying interest in today’s trade, The stock was up by 3.47 percent.

BPCL is the top loser in today's market, the overall omc’s were in selling pressure due to the rise in the crude price.

Key Market News

  • US, Mexico reach an agreement to prevent tariffs: Donald Trump
  • Consumer confidence falls in May on worries about jobs, economy: RBI Survey
  • Goldman Sachs forecasted FY20 Indian GDP growth accelerating to 7.2%
  • US leaves the door open to China on trade talks at G20 summit
  • Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold Rs 479 crore worth of domestic stocks on Friday, DIIs were buyers to the tune of Rs 180 crore.

Stocks To Watch

ITC is on the upside while RELCAPITAL is on the downside.

ITC is currently quoting at Rs.280.15 up by Rs 4.90 or 1.78% from its previous closing of Rs.275.25 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.322.95 on 03-SEP-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs.259.00 on 28-JUN-2018. The stock witnessed a good interest from the support showing divergence and likely to remain so in the coming days.

RELCAPITAL is currently quoting at Rs.92.20 down by Rs.-7.75 or -7.75% from its previous closing of Rs.99.95 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 487.70 on 03-SEP-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 86.80 on 10-JUN-2019. The stock is continuously in the downtrend and broken its major support levels is likely to remain in the selling pressure.

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