Industry Snapshot
The Indian dairy sector has witnessed a shift from un-organized sector to organized sector in past few years. This has led to a healthy growth and the milk federation expects the growth to be upwards of 7% per annum. The growing population and increasing health sensitivity/education in the country will drive the growth in milk based products. Also, with growing disposable income, the consumption of dairy items is set to increase.
Company Snapshot
Kwality Dairy was incorporated a erstwhile Kwality Ice Cream India and is most popularly known as an ice-cream brand. However, it is into manufacturing marketing and sale of variety of dairy products and enjoys a healthy market share. The company caters to regular/daily use dairy items as well as lifestyle products. It has recently started investing more in marketing and promotional activities to gain more brand recognition and has introduced new products recently. The company is a supplier for larger FMCG companies like HUL, Britannia, Parle etc. These companies are expanding their product line which uses dairy product input. This will lead to higher revenues and more commitment for Kwality Dairy.
Financial Performance
The company has been under pressure since its debt has continuously risen in last few years and it reflects in the sharp correction in its stock price. However, the operation efficiency has been good all along and is improving now going forward. The revenue has grown at a 5 year CAGR of 48%, while net profit has grown at 81.5%. The debt taken up by the company is well utilised in expanding the company s capacity to 1.7 million LPD. It is not in the league of Amul or Nestle but is a good company to benefit from the dairy sector shifting to organized market.

The quarterly performance suggests the forward projection of EPS in FY13 can be around 6.01; which results in a forward P/E of 5.78. The current P/E is at 6.02 which translate in PE growth ratio (PEG) of 0.08.

Outlook
It is an evergreen industry which does not have any seasonal effect or business cycles. Also, the replacement of these products is not possible. Hence the demand will always be there. With the industry on a healthy growth trajectory and company s efforts to build brand recognition and product portfolio, the outlook is good for the company from a business perspective. The financial management has caused some woes in the recent past but that may not be a huge threat for long term investors as the company is posting good numbers, quarter after quarter. The stock has corrected severely and is trading near its 3 year low. This may be a good time to pick up some holding in this company.
Given the current scenario and trajectory, the stock should be trading between Rs.120-150 in FY14. All we need to look out for is the financial management and any chance of default. Besides that, it is much cheaper than its peers Nestle, GSK etc. and caters to a slightly different market. Once the valuations are richer or equivalent to its larger peers, exit from this scrip.
Industry Snapshot The Indian dairy sector has witnessed a shift from un-organized sector to organized sector in past few years. This has led to a healthy growth and the milk federation expects the growth to be upwards of 7% per annum. The growing...